Episode 10

Maple Syrup and Soft Power

Marko and Jacob wrap up their Geopolitical Power Draft, spar over Canada’s place in the top 10, and debate whether demographics or tech will shape the next world order. Marko defends Canada with maple syrup, AI, and ag exports, while Jacob sides with rivers, realpolitik, and skepticism. They explore honorable mentions like the UAE, Rwanda, and a hypothetical Nordic Union, and ask whether non-state actors or city-states will dominate geopolitics. The episode is equal parts spirited bickering, big-picture theorizing, and long-shot speculation. Also: beavers, bunkers, and why Israel might be past its geopolitical prime.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview

(01:25) - Geopolitical Power Draft Recap

(04:40) - Debating the Draft Picks

(06:32) - Analyzing Geopolitical Power

(17:00) - Honorable Mentions and Speculative Picks

(34:09) - Final Thoughts and Adjustments

(36:48) - Switching Japan and Iran

(37:07) - Argentina and Indonesia Reordering

(37:53) - Brazil's Regional Power

(39:03) - Canada's Geopolitical Position

(39:17) - Mexico's Potential Power Projection

(39:46) - Canada's Strengths and Weaknesses

(41:37) - Comparing Canada to Other Nations

(45:42) - Technological Innovation in Canada

(55:36) - Geopolitical Analysis and Predictions

(01:06:32) - US Debt and Fiscal Policy

(01:14:30) - Trump's Fiscal Policies and Tax Cuts

(01:16:00) - Medicaid and Welfare Cuts

(01:17:10) - Senate's Role in Budget Approval

(01:18:29) - Trump's Stance on Medicaid

(01:20:54) - Bond Market and Budget Cuts

(01:24:10) - Israel and Anti-Zionism Debate

(01:38:58) - South Africa's Racial Tensions

Transcript
Jacob Shapiro:

Hello listeners.

Jacob Shapiro:

Welcome back to another episode of Geopolitical Cousins.

Jacob Shapiro:

Marco and I are back at it.

Jacob Shapiro:

The first hour is a continuation of our last episode.

Jacob Shapiro:

We complete our geopolitical power draft from our last episode and then argue

Jacob Shapiro:

about whether we needed to make some changes based on how the selections fell.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, Marco and I get into a heated debate about Canada and

Jacob Shapiro:

where it belongs on the list.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, from there we turn to the world and talk about some things that are going on.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, we talk about the big beautiful budget Bill, what that means.

Jacob Shapiro:

Some interesting disagreement between me and Marco on that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, I basically try to get myself canceled by wading into issues related

Jacob Shapiro:

to Israel Palestine antisemitism.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then we close with some thoughts about South Africa.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, which is in the news for all sorts of strange reasons.

Jacob Shapiro:

So hope you enjoy the episode.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, we've appreciated your feedback so much.

Jacob Shapiro:

You can keep writing to me at jacob@jacobshapiro.com with more feedback.

Jacob Shapiro:

I forward it all to Marco and I promise here.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, in the next week or two, we will get a podcast specific email so that you can

Jacob Shapiro:

make sure you send things to both of us.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, really shouldn't take that long, but it's been a crazy, crazy couple of weeks.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, um, we're so grateful to have you all along for the ride.

Jacob Shapiro:

Thank you for listening.

Jacob Shapiro:

Thank you for leaving a rating.

Jacob Shapiro:

Thank you for leaving a comment and especially thank you for sharing

Jacob Shapiro:

with anybody you think would be interested in this podcast.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, we'll see you at,

Jacob Shapiro:

take us away, Marco.

Marko Papic:

Okay, Jacob, uh, great to, um, be recording another podcast with you.

Marko Papic:

We left off with, uh, the top 20 I. Basically geopolitical draft.

Marko Papic:

For those of you who didn't, uh, listen to our last episode, I

Marko Papic:

would expect, uh, I would suggest, expect, I would suggest not.

Marko Papic:

Well,

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I expect, I expect, what are you doing here if you

Jacob Shapiro:

didn't listen to our previous two hour long geopolitical mock draft?

Jacob Shapiro:

Come on guys.

Marko Papic:

I mean, yes.

Marko Papic:

Uh, this is gonna be very weird because, uh, we're gonna, we stopped

Marko Papic:

basically with the 16th draft pick.

Marko Papic:

So what, what Jacob and I did, just a little recount.

Marko Papic:

Um, we picked basically countries in terms of geopolitical standing

Marko Papic:

and the current draft board.

Marko Papic:

I had the first pick.

Marko Papic:

I picked the United States of America.

Marko Papic:

Jacob had the second pick.

Marko Papic:

He picked China.

Marko Papic:

I then decided to cheat and just take all of Western Europe as my third pick.

Marko Papic:

But really, really the way I did it is, I call it the EMU five.

Marko Papic:

So the five largest economies in the European Marre Union, which is Germany,

Marko Papic:

France, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands.

Marko Papic:

I just took them all.

Marko Papic:

Uh, with the expectation that over the next 30 years, which is really our time

Marko Papic:

horizon for this, you know, 10 to 30 years, uh, they would integrate further.

Marko Papic:

Jacob then went, uh, with Turkey on, uh, with the fourth pick, which

Marko Papic:

was, I guess the first surprise.

Marko Papic:

I countered with another pretty, you know, pretty sort of down the middle

Marko Papic:

pick of India with fifth Jacob.

Marko Papic:

I think you surprised again, sixth Russia.

Marko Papic:

That's what I do.

Marko Papic:

That's what you do.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

You're looking for the, for the projects.

Marko Papic:

Um, and Russia will be like a reclamation project.

Marko Papic:

It's like a 43-year-old basketball player that's like played in Euro

Marko Papic:

league and you're gonna bring them back into, uh, into, uh, the NBA.

Marko Papic:

I then, uh, went through my first, uh, surprise picked South Korea, uh, which

Marko Papic:

of course, uh, flies in the face of everything we know about demographics.

Marko Papic:

I then proceeded to, uh, shit on demographics as a tool of analysis,

Marko Papic:

which I'm sure irked a lot of people.

Marko Papic:

I. Jacob then went, uh, with a really nice solid, you know, eight Brazil.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I countered with my insane pick of Canada, which clearly is a home bias.

Marko Papic:

I literally have a British Columbia poster right there.

Marko Papic:

It was a, a little, uh, interesting, uh, deviation from Marco's

Marko Papic:

nihilist Dlo indifference by being a Canadian nationalist.

Jacob Shapiro:

He does have a heart, ladies and gentlemen.

Jacob Shapiro:

How about that?

Marko Papic:

He does, yeah, it's, it's coated with maple syrup, uh,

Marko Papic:

which would be very bad for my help.

Marko Papic:

Then you pick Iran, which I love, and so jealous of that pick as number

Marko Papic:

10, because this is a future draft.

Marko Papic:

It's just such a smart way to go, like, you know, 90 million

Marko Papic:

young people educated, uh, great geography, great resources.

Marko Papic:

Why expect it to be a prior state forever.

Marko Papic:

Marco then kind of did the same thing, but with, uh, Argentina, um, Jacob.

Marko Papic:

Then a surprise pick went with a city state Singapore, although I think, uh,

Marko Papic:

solid one, I ConEd with Saudi Arabia.

Marko Papic:

Then slipping all the way to 14 is, you know, Japan and then Icon with Ukraine.

Marko Papic:

Uh, and now we are at 16 pick.

Marko Papic:

And it's your turn, Jacob?

Jacob Shapiro:

It is my pick.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, all right, so we're gonna pick up where we left off and then maybe do

Jacob Shapiro:

some, some analysis of, of things, right?

Jacob Shapiro:

Is that, is that the plan?

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes.

Marko Papic:

Like in analyzing the draft and what what it tells us.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

I just, I'm, I'm, I already have some of the, criticism is the wrong word.

Jacob Shapiro:

We got some really nice constructive feedback from people.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I just wanna remind people that my definition of power

Jacob Shapiro:

was, was deceptively simple.

Jacob Shapiro:

It was, can this country make other countries do what it wants them to do?

Jacob Shapiro:

So, like, for instance, Mexico has a lot of different like components

Jacob Shapiro:

to it that might make, you wanna put it in a geopolitical mock drop.

Jacob Shapiro:

But when I sit down and think about, well, can Mexico make anyone

Jacob Shapiro:

do what Mexico wants them to do?

Jacob Shapiro:

Eh, like, that's pretty tough 'cause they're so dependent on the United States.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, so I, I think actually, um, I, I struggled with this

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause we're in that sort of.

Jacob Shapiro:

Weird nebulous space of what happens next.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, but I'm, and I, I think this could be a bust.

Jacob Shapiro:

This is a high, high risk, high volatility pick.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think I'm gonna take South Africa off the board here too, and I know we'll

Jacob Shapiro:

get to South Africa a little bit later.

Jacob Shapiro:

I like their geography.

Jacob Shapiro:

I like their resources.

Jacob Shapiro:

I like their potential.

Jacob Shapiro:

I like them as a potential regional leader in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Jacob Shapiro:

And there's really not an African country on our list quite yet.

Jacob Shapiro:

And this is where population growth is gonna be happening.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think the new scramble, like geopolitical scramble

Jacob Shapiro:

will happen in Africa.

Jacob Shapiro:

And if there is going to be a regional leader who's going to like, you know,

Jacob Shapiro:

uh, take advantage of that, it's probably going to be south, uh, South Africa.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now, the problem is there probably won't be a regional leader and probably

Jacob Shapiro:

foreign powers will just use Africa like a check checkerboard and South

Jacob Shapiro:

Africa's internal socioeconomic cohesion.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't know.

Jacob Shapiro:

It might take more than 30 years, if ever, for that to immers into a, a true nation.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I'll, I'll take the potential and I'll take the risk and I'll

Jacob Shapiro:

take them off the board here at 16.

Marko Papic:

Alright, that's cool.

Marko Papic:

Um, so one of the things that I incorporated into my analysis,

Marko Papic:

I like your definition.

Marko Papic:

Obviously that's a classical international relations definition.

Marko Papic:

It's a really good one.

Marko Papic:

I, I think you did something more though, Jacob, your Iran pick was

Marko Papic:

good because it's not about what Iran can do today to compel behavior.

Marko Papic:

It's about what Iran is going to do over the next, let's say 10 to 30 years.

Marko Papic:

So I think that you did more than just say, you know what I can do today.

Marko Papic:

And, and I think that that was a really good analysis.

Marko Papic:

I use the quantitative index that I've created before at BCA research.

Marko Papic:

It's called the BCA Geopolitical Power Index.

Marko Papic:

And then I deviated away from it.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

Uh, so on this index us is number one, China's two, India is three,

Marko Papic:

number four is Germany, number six is France, and then Italy is number nine.

Marko Papic:

Spain is 13, Netherlands is 17.

Marko Papic:

So as you can see, I, I actually stuck to that.

Marko Papic:

So US is first.

Marko Papic:

Um.

Marko Papic:

Picked, EMU, third punished India a little bit.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

I picked it fifth, uh, but just a little bit.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I just have some questions there about India.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I then ignored, uh, a couple of countries.

Marko Papic:

I mean, you picked Russia, which is fifth on our, uh, on this index.

Marko Papic:

Um, Japan is eight.

Marko Papic:

It's slipped to 14.

Marko Papic:

I did pick South Korea seventh, and by the way, it's number 10 on

Marko Papic:

the BC geopolitical power index.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

So, you know, not that much of a crazy pick.

Marko Papic:

You picked Brazil eighth.

Marko Papic:

It's actually 11th on the index.

Marko Papic:

Canada is 12th on the index.

Marko Papic:

So I actually did not pick Canada that far up.

Marko Papic:

Um, and then we got some, um, criticism, you know, and one of them was Mexico.

Marko Papic:

We also got criticism for Indonesia.

Marko Papic:

And I do think that we are missing a South Asian, a southeast Asian power.

Marko Papic:

Now you picked Singapore.

Marko Papic:

Um, I'm, I'm actually going to pick Indonesia here.

Marko Papic:

And, um, I struggle 'cause I have two other countries that I kind of want.

Marko Papic:

But I do think that that criticism from outside was good.

Marko Papic:

I have written a lot on Indonesia for work, uh, for my clients.

Marko Papic:

I do like it.

Marko Papic:

I do think it's a very interesting, uh, country And using your own definition.

Marko Papic:

Jacob, what's interesting is they've already compelled behavior from

Marko Papic:

other states, including from China.

Marko Papic:

Indonesia famously slapped tariffs on export of raw nickel.

Marko Papic:

China could have retaliated and said, listen, we need this for our batteries.

Marko Papic:

Um, so no, we're gonna slap tariffs on you.

Marko Papic:

But instead what China did is it moved $20 billion worth of CapEx to

Marko Papic:

Indonesia to build them a processing.

Marko Papic:

Nickel processing industry from scratch.

Marko Papic:

So Indonesia's now, uh, one of the world leaders in processing nickel,

Marko Papic:

and, uh, from what I understand, they're gonna slap tariffs on that too

Marko Papic:

and compel China to move their battery production facilities to Indonesia.

Marko Papic:

So it's a country that even China can't ignore and can't really punish.

Marko Papic:

So I'm picking Indonesia number 17.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm jealous.

Jacob Shapiro:

They, I was between South Africa and Indonesia, so I think we're, we're on

Jacob Shapiro:

the same, we're on the same page here.

Jacob Shapiro:

I was hoping to sneak one by you and come back to Indonesia on the other side.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, I know I just said that proviso about Mexico not being able to force other

Jacob Shapiro:

people to do things, but with a future focus, I'll take Mexico here at 18.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and that's really based on the notion that yes, today Mexico is.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, the 52nd state, if Canada's got the 51st state sort of locked down, but 30

Jacob Shapiro:

years from now, if you've got US China decoupling and a big trade war and the

Jacob Shapiro:

United States is that much more dependent on Mexico demographics favorable.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, I'll take it.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I'm worried about the cartels.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm worried about the future of Mexican democracy.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like there's lots of sort of landmines there.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I'm also just worried about Mexico's overall state of dependence on the

Jacob Shapiro:

United States, but may maybe 30 years they'll have leverage over number one

Jacob Shapiro:

and that should at least like, get them some consideration in the top 20.

Marko Papic:

Alright, well this is my last pick.

Marko Papic:

That, that's, that's a great pick.

Marko Papic:

This is my last one and it's a tough one.

Marko Papic:

Um, because there is a country that is ranked seventh on my

Marko Papic:

quantitative number measure and we, none, none of us picked it.

Marko Papic:

Um, do you know which country this is, Jacob?

Jacob Shapiro:

No, I mean, hold on.

Jacob Shapiro:

Lemme try to guess for a second.

Jacob Shapiro:

So guys, you ask, it's not, it's not a European country.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, I mean it is.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes it is.

Jacob Shapiro:

Go ahead.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I'm not sure what is it?

Marko Papic:

It's the United Kingdom.

Marko Papic:

Oh, duh.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Um, it's, it's tough.

Marko Papic:

You know, this is about the future and I do think that the

Marko Papic:

UK is in an inexorable decline.

Marko Papic:

But couple of things about the uk, um, I gave South Korea a very high score.

Marko Papic:

Here it's seventh because of its soft power.

Marko Papic:

I mean, if I'm gonna be consistent, I mean, the United

Marko Papic:

Kingdom has massive soft power.

Marko Papic:

Always has, uh, United Kingdom has reinvented itself in the past.

Marko Papic:

Famously, in the 1970s, the United Kingdom was begging the EU to let it in

Marko Papic:

the EEC as it was called at the time.

Marko Papic:

And famously, Europeans had to wait for Charlotte to gold to die to let the UK in.

Marko Papic:

But the UK was on its knees begging, and then it just, you

Marko Papic:

know, after basically a post.

Marko Papic:

World Wari, two decades of absolute shocking moles.

Marko Papic:

It reinvented itself and launched a pretty difficult conflict with Argentina,

Marko Papic:

which for the United Kingdom in 1980s, in 1982 was, was a difficult one to do.

Marko Papic:

I mean, it was very far the Fal ones.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

So, I, I mean, it's a nuclear power.

Marko Papic:

It's a leader in many technologies and I think the fact that it slipped to 19

Marko Papic:

is, is kind of, uh, you know, shocking.

Marko Papic:

But it's also, I think, uh, maybe we're a little bit of prisoners in the current

Marko Papic:

moment when it's gotten a lot of flack for Brexit and for being largely irrelevant.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

That, that may be our first, I, we need to go back and, and

Jacob Shapiro:

uh, and analyze some of these.

Jacob Shapiro:

That might be a mistake.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm not sure that the UK should be that, that that should be that far down.

Jacob Shapiro:

Although it's, it's tough.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause when you think 30 years out, um, you know, it wasn't a couple years

Jacob Shapiro:

ago we were talking about is the UK even gonna be the UK in 10 years?

Jacob Shapiro:

Is Northern Ireland gonna join Ireland?

Jacob Shapiro:

Is Scotland gonna break off and join the eu?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, are we getting the return of 17th century British politics and not even

Jacob Shapiro:

being able to dominate the island, let alone like project power in other places.

Jacob Shapiro:

But they also have nuclear weapons.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like you said.

Jacob Shapiro:

They also, I mean the pound sterling is not what at once was, but it's

Jacob Shapiro:

still like, has a bigger role.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

The world.

Jacob Shapiro:

A lot of different other current, like, you know, it's, the UK is relevant and

Jacob Shapiro:

as long as the UK is not gonna fall apart at the seams, like it will probably.

Jacob Shapiro:

Continue to be relevant and I honestly think I've revised some of my pessimism

Jacob Shapiro:

on the UK in the last six months.

Jacob Shapiro:

I've been very bearish, the UK really since Brexit, and it's only in the last

Jacob Shapiro:

six months with the Trump administration pushing so hard against Europe that

Jacob Shapiro:

I've sort of changed my tune a little bit because it looks like the UK

Jacob Shapiro:

now can maybe, it can be this middle ground between Europe and the United

Jacob Shapiro:

States, or maybe the UK is gonna be an integral part of whatever European.

Jacob Shapiro:

Confederation emergence, whether that's officially on the inside or some

Jacob Shapiro:

kind of nascent satellite agreement.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and then that takes away some of the risks of, you know, Scotland

Jacob Shapiro:

trying to break off or, you know, Northern Ireland, Ireland, well, if

Jacob Shapiro:

you're all in some kind of EU cohesive entity anyway, does it really matter?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like it, it's taken some things off the board, so we probably need to,

Jacob Shapiro:

to go back and, and think about that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, for the last pick, I, I'm really, I, I feel like we're not, uh, I

Jacob Shapiro:

don't wanna insult these countries.

Jacob Shapiro:

We're not, uh, skimming the bottom of the basement, but I mean, there's a

Jacob Shapiro:

couple different directions we could go.

Jacob Shapiro:

We still have some nuclear powers on the table, like Pakistan, hundreds of

Jacob Shapiro:

millions of people, nuclear weapons.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, we've got Israel on the table, which today, if it was just a geopolitical

Jacob Shapiro:

power ranking of today, on my definition, would have to be much higher.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm extremely pessimistic about Israel's medium term future, and I

Jacob Shapiro:

know we're gonna get into that a little bit later, but they do have nukes and

Jacob Shapiro:

they more than anyone have been active in shaping the region around them.

Jacob Shapiro:

So it's probably not good to discount them.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and also sitting there staring at me.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, you know, far away from lots of different problems.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, okay, they're not gonna project power anywhere besides the South Pacific,

Jacob Shapiro:

but the South Pacific isn't nothing.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and maybe there's some important things there, and maybe that will

Jacob Shapiro:

become more important over time.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I, I think, I think gun to my head, I'm, I'm gonna take Australia

Jacob Shapiro:

for the last lot, but I don't feel overly, um, I, I feel like we're

Jacob Shapiro:

really the, the, the bottom of the barrel here in terms of the index.

Jacob Shapiro:

We're thinking about, oh, like, you know, regional power that can project

Jacob Shapiro:

power in this very small region, um, and has a lot of different, um, weaknesses.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like Australia's biggest defense partnership, the United States biggest

Jacob Shapiro:

economic relationship with China probably can't defend its own sea lanes.

Jacob Shapiro:

Completely dependent on trade issues of climate change, blah, blah, blah.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I'll, I'll take Australia 20 to round us up.

Marko Papic:

I'm glad you did that.

Marko Papic:

Um, I mean, uh, I do think if Canada's gonna be nine, I don't think

Marko Papic:

Australia should be that far down.

Marko Papic:

Uh, so that's, I think fair.

Marko Papic:

Um, they are also quite, uh, actually elevated in the

Marko Papic:

quantitative index as well.

Marko Papic:

They come in at, let me just see where Australia is.

Marko Papic:

20th.

Marko Papic:

They're actually 20th on the geopolitical index that I created.

Marko Papic:

And just as a reminder, the geopolitical index actually has six factors in it.

Marko Papic:

Um, it looks at demographics in terms of the pop population, aged 15 to 64.

Marko Papic:

It has, um, military expenditure imports and arms exports, um,

Marko Papic:

GDP, primary energy consumption.

Marko Papic:

So, um, it's, uh, it's a little bit more modified.

Marko Papic:

So population is actually, uh, looking at dependency ratios,

Marko Papic:

uh, not just young people.

Marko Papic:

That's what it focuses on.

Marko Papic:

Uh, economic relevance.

Marko Papic:

Um, it's, it looks at basically, um, um, imports.

Marko Papic:

So the greater, the greater the import share, uh, the

Marko Papic:

greater the bargaining power.

Marko Papic:

So to your point, ability to compel behavior by being a consumer market that

Marko Papic:

obviously benefits the US massively.

Marko Papic:

Then arms exports.

Marko Papic:

We don't look at it from a perspective of who has a large

Marko Papic:

army, because that's irrelevant.

Marko Papic:

It's more, uh, high tech.

Marko Papic:

Also, one of the, uh, indicators is r and d spending, uh, which mm-hmm definitely is

Marko Papic:

the reason that Israel is one spot higher than Australia on my quantitative measure.

Marko Papic:

So it's 19th.

Marko Papic:

Um, so just, uh, uh, to your point, I do think that keeping

Marko Papic:

Israel off is a mistake.

Marko Papic:

Um, having Argentina as high as it is, I think that's probably the one.

Marko Papic:

So I, I guess we should just go into analysis.

Marko Papic:

I mean, what I would say from this Israel not being on the top 20, I

Marko Papic:

think is a mistake, but it's also a call on the future, which I agree

Marko Papic:

with you on other countries that we didn't, uh, put here that are on

Marko Papic:

the quantitative, uh, index Poland.

Marko Papic:

Um, although mm-hmm I just basically assume that Ukraine will.

Marko Papic:

Effectively, um, you know, actually overtake Poland on the index.

Marko Papic:

Ukraine, by the way, is 23rd on my index of quantitative measures.

Marko Papic:

23rd.

Marko Papic:

23rd.

Marko Papic:

So not much lower than Poland.

Marko Papic:

And I do think that it's gonna benefit massively from both

Marko Papic:

influx of capital and technology.

Marko Papic:

Um,

Jacob Shapiro:

well, and you could be right in the end, maybe

Jacob Shapiro:

we get the resuscitation of the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth,

Jacob Shapiro:

which Ukraine was a major part of.

Jacob Shapiro:

So technically like that's one big thing.

Marko Papic:

Exactly.

Marko Papic:

Um, the other countries, I mean, we, we nailed it.

Marko Papic:

So the ranking on, on the quantitative, uh, mix of indicators.

Marko Papic:

US first China, second, India, Germany, Russia, France, uk,

Marko Papic:

seventh obviously slipped.

Marko Papic:

Uh, Japan, eighth slipped a little bit, but not that much.

Marko Papic:

Italy, ninth South Korea, 10th, Brazil, 11th, Canada, 12th,

Marko Papic:

Spain 13th, Indonesia 14th.

Marko Papic:

So we put him in the top 20, Mexico's 15th on the syndicators.

Marko Papic:

Saudi Arabia is 16th.

Marko Papic:

I took Saudi Arabia 13th, so not crazy.

Marko Papic:

Netherlands is 17th.

Marko Papic:

Poland is, 18th is missing.

Marko Papic:

Israel's missing 19th.

Marko Papic:

Australia.

Marko Papic:

20th.

Marko Papic:

Iran is 21st.

Marko Papic:

So Pakistan is 22nd.

Marko Papic:

Ukraine is 23rd.

Marko Papic:

Belgium 24th.

Marko Papic:

Thailand, 25th.

Marko Papic:

I do feel like Thailand or Malaysia probably could have

Marko Papic:

made our list of top 20.

Marko Papic:

I guess You chose Israel with Singapore?

Marko Papic:

I chose with Indonesia.

Marko Papic:

What do you think?

Marko Papic:

Are we making a mistake?

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't think we're making a mistake because Indonesia is the one

Jacob Shapiro:

that has the, I know we talked earlier about, uh, demographics not being.

Jacob Shapiro:

Sort of an arbiter of, of, um, of future performance.

Jacob Shapiro:

But Indonesia's demographics are so good compared to a Thailand, which is an

Jacob Shapiro:

aging population compared to Malaysia, which is an aging population and also is

Jacob Shapiro:

extremely overexposed to globalization.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, their dependence on globalized supply chains, uh, is massive.

Jacob Shapiro:

When you look at trade as a percentage of, of GDP, um, that's not true for Indonesia.

Jacob Shapiro:

Indonesia is still very early on.

Jacob Shapiro:

They have been, they, you go back and read World Bank reports

Jacob Shapiro:

or IMF reports from the 2010s.

Jacob Shapiro:

Indonesia is the redheaded stepchild because they're resisting

Jacob Shapiro:

the neoliberal world order.

Jacob Shapiro:

They're doing all these things.

Jacob Shapiro:

The World Bank and IMF can't possibly entertain a sound policy.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I'm sure the economist was writing articles at the time, lambasting them, uh,

Jacob Shapiro:

but they were preparing for this world.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like this is the world that now you look at Indonesia and they're like,

Jacob Shapiro:

ah, they were sort of forward thinking.

Jacob Shapiro:

So when you put together all those things, I think Indonesia

Jacob Shapiro:

is the big in terms of population.

Jacob Shapiro:

In terms of like, size of economy and resources is the big play.

Jacob Shapiro:

And Singapore is, uh, in some ways is an interesting one on the list because

Jacob Shapiro:

it's about, can a very, very small city state exert power in a meaningful way?

Jacob Shapiro:

And I think Singapore can use AI and automation and relations with China

Jacob Shapiro:

and financial capital and all these other different things, a stride,

Jacob Shapiro:

the right of Malacca to have this kind of power over what is gonna be

Jacob Shapiro:

a completely contested trade zones.

Jacob Shapiro:

But, you know, if, if Singapore gets into a shooting war with Thailand,

Jacob Shapiro:

uh, you know, I mean that's not gonna happen, but like, it's gonna be really

Jacob Shapiro:

hard for Singapore to defend itself.

Jacob Shapiro:

So it's a much different sort of indicator of power, I think.

Marko Papic:

Um, okay, so that's fair.

Marko Papic:

Singapore was 26th, by the way, on the list.

Marko Papic:

So even though it's a small country, uh, and gets penalized, uh, in many

Marko Papic:

ways for demographics, my quantitative indicator actually gave them a lot of.

Marko Papic:

I think props Switzerland is 27th, by the way.

Marko Papic:

Um, and I agree with that.

Marko Papic:

I think it's actually got some really compelling and

Marko Papic:

interesting things about it.

Marko Papic:

Um, um, I think if it had retained its neutrality, probably would've

Marko Papic:

been more interesting to me.

Marko Papic:

Um, the fact that it has been eroding it, I do think has been a mistake.

Marko Papic:

Could have maybe ended up on our top 20, had it kind of had, uh, something

Marko Papic:

unique on the foreign policy front.

Marko Papic:

Bangladesh is 28th, the country that I really wanted to put on the top

Marko Papic:

20, but it's really difficult to do.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, I'm just a huge suite of file.

Marko Papic:

So, um, Sweden actually comes in the 29th.

Jacob Shapiro:

One of the most interesting emails we got was from a Swede who said,

Jacob Shapiro:

you should consider some kind of Nordic union that Denmark, Norway, Sweden,

Jacob Shapiro:

maybe Finland will combine together to be their own sort of mini confederation.

Jacob Shapiro:

And that, that block would be, um, extremely powerful.

Jacob Shapiro:

I agree with that.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Let's, let's, let's have a, a group of honorable.

Marko Papic:

Mentions here.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I think that Nordic Union, let's put that led by Sweden.

Marko Papic:

Uh, interesting.

Marko Papic:

I mean, I take, I did take EMU five.

Marko Papic:

I did not include, uh, anybody from sort of the Scandinavia slash Nordic world.

Marko Papic:

I think Israel is definitely an honorable mentioned, uh, I think Poland as well.

Marko Papic:

Um, Thailand, Malaysia, we didn't really have much of, I mean, I think

Marko Papic:

both countries have a prospect.

Marko Papic:

Malaysia's very interesting, particularly if semiconductor, um,

Marko Papic:

knowhow starts migrating from Taiwan and China to a neutral country.

Marko Papic:

I think Malaysia.

Marko Papic:

Should make our honorable mentions.

Marko Papic:

Um, lemme see, Philippines is at 30 on my quantitative index.

Marko Papic:

Egypt is 31.

Marko Papic:

Um, nah, nah, you know.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

There's no way.

Marko Papic:

No way.

Marko Papic:

No way.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like for, for some honorable mentions, like I think

Jacob Shapiro:

you have to think really outside of the box to, to start adding more.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like if like we have Brazil and Argentina here, could it be like Mercosur emerges

Jacob Shapiro:

as some kind of EU light of South America?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like that could sort of change the rankings and I could see that

Jacob Shapiro:

happening over the next 30 years.

Jacob Shapiro:

Really off the beaten path for me would be, um.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uzbekistan, um, double landlocked country, but it's literally the country that makes

Jacob Shapiro:

all the stands connect to each other.

Jacob Shapiro:

And in times where trade has been threatened, like there

Jacob Shapiro:

was a reason Uzbekistan was at the middle of the Silk Road.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yep.

Jacob Shapiro:

So if you did have meaningful conflict in the maritime space or meaningful

Jacob Shapiro:

volatility to where goods couldn't move there, that's sort of what

Jacob Shapiro:

China's belt and Road initiative is all about in case, you know, yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Sea lanes break down, can you move things over land if that happens?

Jacob Shapiro:

Uzbekistan I think is actually placed really well to be a sort

Jacob Shapiro:

of regional leader in Central Asia to use that, but I think that's

Jacob Shapiro:

a very sort of speculative play.

Marko Papic:

No, I, I think Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, I think that's a great point.

Marko Papic:

I mean, there's this, uh, in geopolitics for those of you who

Marko Papic:

want to sort of read more about it, there's this constant battle between

Marko Papic:

the Mahan and the kinder duality.

Marko Papic:

You know, these are the two, like the Yin and the Yang, the Sith and the Jedi.

Marko Papic:

Uh, Mahan is sort of the operating system.

Marko Papic:

He wrote, uh, Mahan was the, I believe in Admiral.

Marko Papic:

A naval scholar and he wrote a lot on, uh, the power of the navies and the seas.

Marko Papic:

Uh, and that is the operating system that the United States of

Marko Papic:

America operates on, that it, uh, downloaded from the United Kingdom.

Marko Papic:

Um, the seas are the highways of the world, and if you control them, you can

Marko Papic:

pretty much show up in front of anybody's capital city and threatened them.

Marko Papic:

You can also trade, you can control trade routes, but there is an alternative

Marko Papic:

operating system, which none of us have really taken seriously since

Marko Papic:

probably Hitler, and it's the me kinder and the me kinder looks at the world

Marko Papic:

from the perspective of the world island, which is what e erasure is.

Marko Papic:

So from Ireland to Ka chop cut, there's this world island.

Marko Papic:

And if you control the world island, you don't have to spend a single cent

Marko Papic:

on a single ship, like Americans can run around with their, like fancy

Marko Papic:

schmancy ships, but you don't care.

Marko Papic:

You've got all the technology, all the consumer markets, and all the natural

Marko Papic:

resources you would ever really need.

Marko Papic:

There's nothing that you, Eurasia doesn't have.

Marko Papic:

And, uh, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, if you suddenly just shift your thinking towards

Marko Papic:

that kind of a kinder operating system, I think Uzbekistan is not a crazy pick.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, there's, there's two others I want to throw on and I'm curious where they are

Jacob Shapiro:

in your quantitative index because we, I threw in South Africa at the very end.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and, and Africa's hard to, is harder to think about from this

Jacob Shapiro:

point of, from this perspective.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause I think, like my base case is that Africa is probably going

Jacob Shapiro:

to be dominated by external powers.

Jacob Shapiro:

Not that African nations are gonna be able to sort of create, uh,

Jacob Shapiro:

geopolitical power bases of their own.

Jacob Shapiro:

But let's say I'm wrong about that.

Jacob Shapiro:

And let's say that some of these African nations are able to congeal

Jacob Shapiro:

into nations and sort of project power.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, two on my list, one would be Ethiopia.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um.

Jacob Shapiro:

On the horn, really young, uh, motivated population.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, you mentioned Egypt, like the Nile begins in Ethiopia and there's already

Jacob Shapiro:

been tension between Ethiopia and Egypt.

Jacob Shapiro:

But so I say that because Ethiopia is damning the Nile, it could

Jacob Shapiro:

literally control everything down river from the Nile.

Jacob Shapiro:

And if you have control of the Nile, you like, generally

Jacob Shapiro:

speaking, civilizationally, you've been a pretty powerful entity.

Jacob Shapiro:

And you know, they can project to the horn.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now they're technically landlocked.

Jacob Shapiro:

They're having problems with Eritrea and some of these others.

Jacob Shapiro:

Also, they just fought a civil war in which hundreds of thousands have died.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like there's so many problems with them, but they're one that I think deserves.

Jacob Shapiro:

Honorable mention, or at least put them on the watch list.

Jacob Shapiro:

The other one is, is less a country, although I have a country

Jacob Shapiro:

that might benefit from this.

Jacob Shapiro:

But, you know, going back a hundred years, people have recognized

Jacob Shapiro:

the potential of what is today the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Jacob Shapiro:

Mm-hmm.

Jacob Shapiro:

Just from the perspective of population, resources, water, where it is in

Jacob Shapiro:

Africa, all these other things.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now, of course, um, the DRC, what is today, the DRC, like, it's

Jacob Shapiro:

the subject of heart of darkness.

Jacob Shapiro:

It is the subject of all of these d it's, you know, kingly, upholds,

Jacob Shapiro:

ghost, all these different terrible things have happened there.

Jacob Shapiro:

And that contin, uh, didn't even mention the, the Rwanda genocide and the second

Jacob Shapiro:

African war in the ni uh, world War in the 1990s, like one of the most deadly

Jacob Shapiro:

conflicts in the history of human beings.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, like all of that is sort of in there and it's happening again today.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like there is restiveness and fighting.

Jacob Shapiro:

Rebels running all over the place, Rwanda, arming rebels, and maybe even

Jacob Shapiro:

Rwanda military presence on the ground in the eastern parts of the DRC.

Jacob Shapiro:

So the, the country that's on my watch list is actually not the DRC because

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm, I'm, I doubt that the DRC is gonna find that national footing.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, but I think Rwanda deserves an honorable mention just in the way that

Jacob Shapiro:

it's changed in the last 30 years.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's military and, you know, security capacity.

Jacob Shapiro:

Some of its investment in like, whether it's science, like they have some

Jacob Shapiro:

interesting things going from them and they have shown the ability to

Jacob Shapiro:

affect things in countries around them.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, that's a great point in a way that Israel has.

Jacob Shapiro:

So they're on my list too, on honorable Mitch.

Marko Papic:

I like, I like the technology aspect of Rwanda because that's true.

Marko Papic:

They actually do have, um, a burgeoning tech industry and your

Marko Papic:

definition of being com able to compel.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, in terms of where all of these countries are in the indicator.

Marko Papic:

Um, so first of all, as I mentioned in the first podcast episode, there is something.

Marko Papic:

Called the Composite Index of National Capability, the CINC, it

Marko Papic:

was created by political scientists at the height of, uh, the Cold War.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

And that one is much more like a Cold War era index.

Marko Papic:

It looks at, um, uh, total population, urban population, iron in steel

Marko Papic:

production, energy consumption, military personnel, and military expenditure.

Marko Papic:

And so it's very much, I think, old school.

Marko Papic:

I modified that with my own, which emphasizes things like military exports.

Marko Papic:

Why?

Marko Papic:

Because that's a way to show that you have technological capability, that

Marko Papic:

you have actual, you know, ability to sell something that's sophisticated,

Marko Papic:

not just buy it 'cause you're big.

Marko Papic:

But the reason I mentioned this is that there, there are some African

Marko Papic:

countries in this one that doesn't penalize you for just, uh, not

Marko Papic:

being technologically capable.

Marko Papic:

So Nigeria is actually 21st, the Congo's 35th, you know,

Marko Papic:

to your point, Sudan is 38th.

Marko Papic:

South Africa's 30th Rwanda's on neither one.

Marko Papic:

Um, but I think that that's a really nuanced pick.

Marko Papic:

So I think I like that one.

Marko Papic:

Ethiopia is also not on either one, which is interesting.

Marko Papic:

Uzbekistan, is it?

Marko Papic:

But I I get your Uzbekistan point.

Marko Papic:

Um, if I wanted to add one, I think it would be the United Arab Emirates.

Marko Papic:

And the reason I say that is because you, you mentioned Singapore as a potential

Marko Papic:

place where AI could really play a role, but I think UAE is probably the one

Marko Papic:

country that is potentially going to have the biggest role in AI development.

Marko Papic:

And you saw President Trump's trip to the Middle East.

Marko Papic:

He was followed by a lot of people from the AI community and they

Marko Papic:

selled a lot of deals, including with the UAE company, um, which is

Marko Papic:

a, uh, front runner in some of this.

Marko Papic:

Uh, this is the G 42 artificial intelligence company

Marko Papic:

headquartered in Abu Dhabi.

Marko Papic:

So why.

Marko Papic:

Because UAE has this very interesting mix of small population, large capital

Marko Papic:

pool, and an expat population that no one's going to cry about if they

Marko Papic:

all get fired due to AI developments.

Marko Papic:

So when you think about very powerful lobbies in America, like American Medical

Marko Papic:

Association is extremely difficult.

Marko Papic:

You try replacing doctors with ai, good luck with that.

Marko Papic:

It's not gonna work.

Marko Papic:

You know, and it's not, not because you and I, like Jacob and Marco

Marko Papic:

have a problem with AI doctors.

Marko Papic:

It's because doctors have a problem with AI doctors, same

Marko Papic:

with pilots or truck drivers.

Marko Papic:

Um, there are a lot of, you know, very vested interests, political

Marko Papic:

interests that are going to prevent AI from being deployed fully.

Marko Papic:

But a place like the UAE, were pretty much accountants, doctors, pediatricians,

Marko Papic:

you know, like you name it, are pretty much all expats, non-citizens.

Marko Papic:

They can all be fired tomorrow if a GI was to be developed.

Marko Papic:

So I actually think that of all the countries on the planet, UAE

Marko Papic:

will be the first to deploy full AI systems in government and in

Marko Papic:

education, in medicine and so on.

Marko Papic:

So that's my, uh, honorable mention.

Marko Papic:

So we have a good group, Nordic Union.

Marko Papic:

No, and

Jacob Shapiro:

I, and I just wanna continue on that too 'cause

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I think it belongs there.

Jacob Shapiro:

And this is like Singapore was my stand-in for thinking about like, are city states

Jacob Shapiro:

even possible like in the future and should they be on this list in general?

Jacob Shapiro:

Because when you think about like city states today, like I count the UAE 'cause

Jacob Shapiro:

of Dubai, but it's a really small list.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, it's Singapore, Monaco, the Vatican.

Jacob Shapiro:

If the Vatican ever wanted to like get like more muscular again, like that

Jacob Shapiro:

would actually be a really sleeper pick.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like the return of the Catholic, uh, the

Marko Papic:

papal states.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, the papal states back, uh, with, you know, their, their

Jacob Shapiro:

billion Catholics or however many there are of them, uh, sort of running around.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I, I wonder if one of the things that's missing on our list, well, first

Jacob Shapiro:

of all, I wonder if I'm right that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Geopolitics, the way that we're heading towards Multipolarity is gonna lead

Jacob Shapiro:

to the rise of New city states or the empowerment of city states in

Jacob Shapiro:

a way that it hasn't in the past.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then I wonder if what's missing from our list is some of these city states,

Jacob Shapiro:

like the, the, this is, this is not a well thought out analysis yet, which good?

Jacob Shapiro:

You're coming here for entertainment, not for well thought out analysis.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, but like, when I think about the bearishness of the UK, for

Jacob Shapiro:

example, uh, that bearishness with the UK was always coupled with, but

Jacob Shapiro:

London will be extremely powerful.

Jacob Shapiro:

So if the UK did fall apart, would London sort of become a city

Jacob Shapiro:

state or like would like around England or something like that?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, could you have the rise of some of these different, uh, mega cities turn

Jacob Shapiro:

into like city states of their own right.

Jacob Shapiro:

And might they affect the map of the world in different ways in the future?

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't know.

Jacob Shapiro:

I it's, it's a, it's a very speculative concept that, as you can

Jacob Shapiro:

tell, I haven't developed fully yet, but it's in the back of my head.

Marko Papic:

Our Congress too.

Marko Papic:

No, no, I, I've thought about this.

Marko Papic:

I think city states is one, uh, the other one is also regional.

Marko Papic:

So the Nordic Union.

Marko Papic:

Points that are, you know, um, one of our listeners pointed out

Marko Papic:

is very, very well thought out.

Marko Papic:

In other words, a multipolar distribution of power does create a need for scale.

Marko Papic:

So in a unipolar world, you can be a tiny country, you know, you can be

Marko Papic:

Slovenia and be extremely successful because hey, Americans are in charge.

Marko Papic:

Just follow the rules and you know, you'll be fine in a bipolar world, you can be a

Marko Papic:

tiny country, just pick the right side.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

But in a multipolar world, like scale starts to matter.

Marko Papic:

And so I do think that one of the failures maybe of our

Marko Papic:

ranking, we do think of scale.

Marko Papic:

Like, I like Canada 'cause it's huge and it can import another 40 million people.

Marko Papic:

Like done.

Marko Papic:

And suddenly it's a global power.

Marko Papic:

But like, okay.

Marko Papic:

But we did not, and you know, we picked Indonesia but we didn't pick like

Marko Papic:

Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand corridor, something like, you know, we didn't

Marko Papic:

get like innovative on that point.

Marko Papic:

And I think that.

Marko Papic:

That might be something to think about.

Marko Papic:

Maybe there will be more regionalization now.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, and and there's also like to, to your point, like, um,

Jacob Shapiro:

based on a podcast I did earlier this week, like a really out there, um,

Jacob Shapiro:

selection would've been instead of China, like Huawei or Microsoft, like, there

Jacob Shapiro:

is this narrative out there of techno fascism, techno overlords companies

Jacob Shapiro:

that will become stronger than nations.

Jacob Shapiro:

And there's precedent for that, right?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like before there was the British Empire, there's the British East India company.

Jacob Shapiro:

Mm-hmm.

Jacob Shapiro:

The Dutch story is like that too.

Jacob Shapiro:

So we may be missing, like with the combo of technology and, and some of

Jacob Shapiro:

these other things like the rise of companies or non-state actors that

Jacob Shapiro:

affect the world in, in different ways.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause there's none of that on our list right now.

Marko Papic:

There isn't.

Marko Papic:

And I love it.

Marko Papic:

I I love your point.

Marko Papic:

You know, Hudson Bay Company basically created candidate because

Marko Papic:

people in Europe wanted beaver hats.

Marko Papic:

Like, there you go.

Marko Papic:

You know, which is why beaver should be on the flag, not, not a maple leaf.

Marko Papic:

Um, now.

Marko Papic:

I wanna do one final thing before, uh, I hand over, uh, the MCTU.

Marko Papic:

I want you to take a look at this list and I want you to make one change.

Marko Papic:

Now that we've had some time to digest, take some criticism in.

Marko Papic:

You can either switch two of your picks, you know, you can basically trade them.

Marko Papic:

Like, let's say you can say Turkey at four is too high,

Marko Papic:

high and South Africa's too low.

Marko Papic:

So you like, flip them.

Marko Papic:

Or you can take one of your picks off the board and put someone else on

Marko Papic:

like, you made a compelling case for Israel or Uzbekistan or Nordic unit.

Marko Papic:

So either one of those.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, I, I think we need to do a little more postmortem

Jacob Shapiro:

on, on the list itself too.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause you might think that.

Jacob Shapiro:

In the moment I was most insecure about my Russia pick at number six.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I actually feel pretty good about my Russia pick and

Jacob Shapiro:

we might wanna spar on that.

Jacob Shapiro:

And like, I'm, I'm looking at just my choices here too.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, I, I wanna get into an argument argument with you about Canada.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, I just don't see it.

Jacob Shapiro:

I want to, I want to hate on Canada right now 'cause I don't think it

Jacob Shapiro:

belongs like, because certainly not in the top 10, and I'm not even sure it

Jacob Shapiro:

belongs on this list to be quite frank.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, but I, I, when I look at the list, I think my biggest mistake,

Jacob Shapiro:

um, is that Japan is likely too low.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and it should probably be slotted like Japan should probably have been, I. I

Jacob Shapiro:

don't know if it's before Russia or after Russia, but it's definitely in the top 10.

Jacob Shapiro:

It doesn't belong there.

Jacob Shapiro:

Sort of languishing at the bottom.

Jacob Shapiro:

And the UK too, like was, was a little bit of a blind spot for me.

Jacob Shapiro:

I like some of those honorable mentions, but they're too speculative.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I like them on the bubble and I see that they have potential to jump

Jacob Shapiro:

up, but you know, like an Ethiopia pick or Rwanda pick, um, Nordic Union pick.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, I like them but there's not enough reality there for, for me to do it.

Jacob Shapiro:

But if I had to pick one, like I would boost Japan, probably five or six slots.

Marko Papic:

Do you wanna do that?

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, so I think I'll, like, for my picks, just imagine I'm

Jacob Shapiro:

picking Japan right after Russia, so everything else gets bumped down.

Marko Papic:

Well why not flip Iran for Japan?

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well so I, I, 'cause I want Brazil ahead of Iran so I would, I would flip

Jacob Shapiro:

Japan and Brazil, if that makes sense.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then flip Brazil ahead of Iran.

Marko Papic:

You can only flip one.

Jacob Shapiro:

I know.

Jacob Shapiro:

I can only flip one.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, uh, well, Brazil, I can do whatever we want.

Jacob Shapiro:

We're making, we are the commissioners of this draft.

Jacob Shapiro:

Okay.

Jacob Shapiro:

So you want

Marko Papic:

Japan where

Jacob Shapiro:

I just, oh, Nico Harrison just called.

Jacob Shapiro:

He said, I'm allowed to do whatever I want.

Jacob Shapiro:

And as a, as, as a, as a thank you for that.

Jacob Shapiro:

I will get the first pick in the draft next year.

Jacob Shapiro:

Thank you for that, Nico.

Jacob Shapiro:

I really appreciate you watching my back.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, let's just do that to keep it simple.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I play by the rules.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm gonna, I'm gonna switch Japan and Brazil.

Marko Papic:

Japan and Brazil.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Oh, interesting.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

So Japan and then Brazil.

Marko Papic:

Alright.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, no, no, no, no, no.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I have, I have to switch Japan and Iran.

Jacob Shapiro:

Sorry.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'll switch and I, that's what I think.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah,

Marko Papic:

yeah, yeah, yeah.

Marko Papic:

No, but that makes sense because then Brazil remains ahead of Iran.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

You're just putting, you know, Iran 14, it's still a controversial

Marko Papic:

pick, I think, and it retains that.

Marko Papic:

I, I picked Argentina way too high.

Marko Papic:

I I thought you were gonna take it.

Jacob Shapiro:

Hmm.

Marko Papic:

Um.

Marko Papic:

So I picked him 11th.

Marko Papic:

I think that was kinda ludicrous.

Marko Papic:

I'm gonna switch Indonesia.

Marko Papic:

Oh, I'm gonna put Indonesia in the

Marko Papic:

11th spot and I'm gonna bump, um, gonna bump Argentina down to 17th.

Marko Papic:

It's still ahead of Mexico, which I feel comfortable with.

Marko Papic:

Um, but it's below South Africa now and Ukraine and that's okay.

Marko Papic:

And it's below Iran.

Marko Papic:

So basically Iran and Argentina, we kind of took them down a couple of

Marko Papic:

notches because they are speculative and we're expecting a lot of things

Marko Papic:

to go right in order for them.

Marko Papic:

So I think it's fine that they're a little bit, you know, down.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, yeah, and I, I'm very bullish.

Jacob Shapiro:

Brazil, like my bullish, the level at which I took Brazil indicates to

Jacob Shapiro:

you that I'm actually very negative Argentina, not necessarily from a

Jacob Shapiro:

market or investment perspective.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm actually very optimistic about Argentina from that perspective.

Jacob Shapiro:

But from a power projection perspective, I think South America

Jacob Shapiro:

is Brazil's, and I think it's either gonna be Brazil as a regional power

Jacob Shapiro:

or some kind of regional union.

Jacob Shapiro:

Or China or somebody else is gonna dominate it.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I don't see that Argentina is advanced enough at this state with where

Jacob Shapiro:

we are with multipolar competition to be a South American regional power.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now, maybe they can make up a lot of ground.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and, you know, certainly Melay has done some interesting

Jacob Shapiro:

things from a reform perspective.

Jacob Shapiro:

But, uh, I don't know.

Jacob Shapiro:

I need somebody who's not, uh, channeling his strategies from his dead

Jacob Shapiro:

dog before I, I start getting really excited about a country's capacity to

Jacob Shapiro:

do things geopolitically in the world.

Marko Papic:

I think what's interesting about this is, uh, yeah, I mean,

Marko Papic:

I think, uh, I think that's fair.

Marko Papic:

And I think Mexico gets penalized in many ways because it's next to America, as

Marko Papic:

Mexicans will always point out, you know.

Marko Papic:

Uh, if they were anywhere else in the world, I think

Marko Papic:

Mexico would be more powerful.

Marko Papic:

And that's true.

Marko Papic:

And similarly, Argentina has appropriately now come down relative to Brazil.

Marko Papic:

Um, okay.

Marko Papic:

So I'm, I'm ready to defend Canada.

Marko Papic:

If you wanna, if you wanna take on the challenge, give it, give it to me.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

And,

Jacob Shapiro:

and, and, uh, well, and just before we take on Canada,

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause, 'cause Mexico and Canada are sort of two sides of the same coin,

Jacob Shapiro:

like Canada, well I guess you could make this argument for Canada too.

Jacob Shapiro:

Mexico like does have Central America.

Jacob Shapiro:

Where it could project power.

Jacob Shapiro:

If Mexico could ever like, get control of cartels and be responsible for

Jacob Shapiro:

regional security and project power down all the way through Panama, uh,

Jacob Shapiro:

and sort of be a leader of the Latin American world in North America,

Jacob Shapiro:

like that there's, there are roots for them to develop their own power.

Jacob Shapiro:

They've just never done that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Everything has been northward facing for obvious reasons.

Jacob Shapiro:

So over a 30 year time horizon, is that something they could do?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like Yes, and that's possible.

Jacob Shapiro:

And same with Canada.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I guess if, if you're making the positive Canada argument, you can talk

Jacob Shapiro:

about, uh, the polar ice cap melting and Canada being the king of the Arctic

Jacob Shapiro:

and you know, the Arctic is the new Mediterranean and Canada is one of the

Jacob Shapiro:

powers that is gonna benefit most from it.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, but I don't know.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm just not buying it.

Jacob Shapiro:

It seems to me that I, you know, I think that, uh, please separate.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, our president's, uh, demeaning attitude towards Canada,

Jacob Shapiro:

from what I'm about to say.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause I don't think Canada should become the 51st state, but Canada is

Jacob Shapiro:

woefully dependent on the United States.

Jacob Shapiro:

Nobody gives a shit what Canada says.

Jacob Shapiro:

Think about all the things that have happened to them

Jacob Shapiro:

in the last couple of years.

Jacob Shapiro:

China kidnapped their people didn't give like, whatever, like nobody

Jacob Shapiro:

actually helped them or did anything.

Jacob Shapiro:

They picked a fight with Saudi Arabia over things like women's rights.

Jacob Shapiro:

Saudi Arabia was like, cool, we're not gonna trade with you anymore.

Jacob Shapiro:

And like, just like, go away until you apologize.

Jacob Shapiro:

And eventually they had to apologize.

Jacob Shapiro:

You know, United States wants to pick a trade war with, with them.

Jacob Shapiro:

They're, they try to fight for it.

Jacob Shapiro:

United States doesn't care.

Jacob Shapiro:

Literally the leader of the United States is like, great.

Jacob Shapiro:

So my best offer is that you just become part of our country.

Jacob Shapiro:

How, how's that for you?

Jacob Shapiro:

And the best we can do is like, you know, globalist Mark Carney coming

Jacob Shapiro:

in and saying like, no, I'm really gonna do, like, be tough with them.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, like, okay, yes, they can immigrate a lot of, they can

Jacob Shapiro:

welcome a lot of immigrants.

Jacob Shapiro:

They also have lots of fault lines within the society itself.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, uh, we've got Quebec, we've got, you know, murmurings in the

Jacob Shapiro:

west that, you know, Alberta will break off some of these other things.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, it, it just, like, it, it doesn't look to me like a coherent power that's

Jacob Shapiro:

gonna project power in any meaningful way.

Jacob Shapiro:

They're gonna be tied to the United States, um, for the long run.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I don't see a, a world in which, you know, China, like, imagine this is 20

Jacob Shapiro:

years from now, is China gonna be afraid of kidnapping some Canadian diplomats

Jacob Shapiro:

because of what Canada's gonna do to them?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, no, like Canada, like China's still gonna kidnap their diplomats.

Marko Papic:

Well, I mean, I think that's, you know, the, the way the

Marko Papic:

trade value, uh, ranking works in the basketball world where Bill Simmons

Marko Papic:

does it, is that you would not trade somebody below for somebody on top.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

So, you know, I mean, it's, it, it's, I don't think China would

Marko Papic:

care about Japanese diplomats being kidnapped or businesses or.

Marko Papic:

Singapore, right?

Marko Papic:

No, no.

Marko Papic:

I,

Jacob Shapiro:

I think they would, I think they would with Japan, and I think they

Jacob Shapiro:

would, I think Singapore, yes, I would.

Jacob Shapiro:

I would trade them with all of them.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think there's two different things here, and this is something that

Jacob Shapiro:

you and I talked about before.

Jacob Shapiro:

If I'm China and I'm drafting which countries I want as allies, like if

Jacob Shapiro:

we just put all politics aside and I just want to take pure pieces off the

Jacob Shapiro:

board to build some kind of Chinese LED alliance that allows me to have a

Jacob Shapiro:

Chinese LED world order, Canada would be very close to the top of that list.

Jacob Shapiro:

Right?

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause they are a really crucial ally.

Jacob Shapiro:

And for the United States too, they have to be really at the top of that list.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I think as like as value is a partner, Canada's really high.

Jacob Shapiro:

But if we're just talking about like Canada's ability to shape the world

Jacob Shapiro:

around it and project power, like I don't think it has any juice there whatsoever.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I would put it, like I would trade Iran, I would trade Singapore,

Jacob Shapiro:

I would trade Saudi Arabia, and you know, I'm not a Saudi Arabia fan.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, I would probably trade, uh.

Jacob Shapiro:

The uk, Indonesia for sure, probably the uk.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, I would put ahead of Canada too if it's just like who I would

Jacob Shapiro:

trade on the list, like Absolutely.

Marko Papic:

So I think, I think there's three things that Canada

Marko Papic:

has that other countries don't have.

Marko Papic:

First of all, it's a hedge.

Marko Papic:

So think of Canada as like, you know, like those bunkers that people have where

Marko Papic:

they're like, everything is just turnkey.

Marko Papic:

Or like the United States of Amer America has military bases around the

Marko Papic:

world called lily pad bases, right?

Marko Papic:

Where you're just like, you turn a key and like the Burger King in

Marko Papic:

the back starts like operating, you know, the like Dairy Queen, like

Marko Papic:

ice cream machine starts buzzing.

Marko Papic:

That's Canada for the west, it's this bunker.

Marko Papic:

And the reason I say that is that if anything bad happens to the United States

Marko Papic:

of America, like Canada has everything US has just like ready to be scaled up.

Marko Papic:

So if there is any sort of a domestic disturbance in the us,

Marko Papic:

Canada becomes the US overnight.

Marko Papic:

Precisely because it is the exact same in many ways.

Marko Papic:

It's just ready, like if, if the US had some sort of a calamity, there are

Marko Papic:

50 million American refugees in Canada tomorrow, and that's just, that's now a

Marko Papic:

hundred million dollar, a hundred million dollars, a hundred million people country.

Marko Papic:

So that's the first thing I would say.

Marko Papic:

Um, it has institutions, governance.

Marko Papic:

Those soft things that make Canada interesting to me are, are that it

Marko Papic:

has basically Western IP and Western operating system is just smaller, is the

Marko Papic:

size of Spain in terms of population.

Jacob Shapiro:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

The second thing I like about is obviously natural resources, which I

Marko Papic:

think you're discounting the reason that you want to take Canada over Saudi Arabia.

Marko Papic:

And the reason that Canada will matter is because its food production is just

Marko Papic:

gonna go through the roof and you're the big soft ag guy, uh, soft commodity guy,

Marko Papic:

you know, like Canada, um, will have.

Marko Papic:

The greatest agricultural output over the next 30 years because

Marko Papic:

climate change is happening and climate change is not always bad.

Marko Papic:

Canada will will definitely benefit from it because the growing

Marko Papic:

seasons will, um, expand and you'll have multiple growing seasons.

Marko Papic:

This is the Saskatchewan and Manitoba play.

Marko Papic:

It's not actually that much about Ontario or British Columbia.

Marko Papic:

It's really about those prairies that suddenly become extremely good.

Marko Papic:

It has water, endless water, uh, as water as far as di can see.

Marko Papic:

It has massive, um, hydroelectric potential.

Marko Papic:

It hasn't even tapped Quebec as a country is an exporter of energy,

Marko Papic:

purely because of what, uh, it's done on the hydro side of things.

Marko Papic:

It just invented hydropower, just built some dams on these lakes that

Marko Papic:

nobody even really knows how to get to.

Marko Papic:

There's no roads up there.

Marko Papic:

Um, so the natural resources one is the big one.

Marko Papic:

And then finally technology.

Marko Papic:

I think that, uh, you're, you're underestimating just how.

Marko Papic:

Important Canada has been to Western technological dominance.

Marko Papic:

Um, research in mode, in motion obviously doesn't exist anymore.

Marko Papic:

It's been overtaken by other things, but I think that rim is an important example

Marko Papic:

of what Canada has done in the past.

Marko Papic:

It's innovated massively.

Marko Papic:

The reason we have cell phones that work today are rim patents that, um,

Marko Papic:

are still being used in iPhones and in, uh, modern mobile telephones.

Marko Papic:

The other issue is nuclear energy as well.

Marko Papic:

It's another example of how Canada has uh, uh, punched above its weight.

Marko Papic:

Quantum and fusion.

Marko Papic:

Two things that Canada does really well and the reason for that is that

Marko Papic:

it's universities are top class.

Marko Papic:

Nobody really talks about 'em 'cause they're not fancy and they don't have

Marko Papic:

sports, but they're very, very good.

Marko Papic:

And again, it's kind of a hedge if, if you don't want to live in

Marko Papic:

the US and you know, you posted on Twitter something interesting.

Marko Papic:

How many PhDs in the US.

Marko Papic:

Their performance, I think based on where they're coming from.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yep.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yep.

Jacob Shapiro:

You know,

Marko Papic:

like Canadian universities are, are basically just there sitting

Marko Papic:

ready to take in all this global talent.

Marko Papic:

So yes, this is definitely based on the future, but the reason that

Marko Papic:

I like Canada more than like Iran is that Iran has the people, but

Marko Papic:

it requires governance to change.

Marko Papic:

Canada just doesn't have the people and I think honestly

Marko Papic:

it's easier to solve for that.

Marko Papic:

It is easier to build the infrastructure and have an aggressive immigration

Marko Papic:

than to fix governance in institutions that haven't been modernized for

Marko Papic:

like, you know, 50, 60, 70 years.

Marko Papic:

So, um, that's, that's what, that's kind of why I have Canada.

Marko Papic:

Maybe it is too high at number nine.

Marko Papic:

I think maybe it should get that Iran, Argentina.

Marko Papic:

Like, uh, yeah,

Jacob Shapiro:

I just, I would push back a couple different ways because

Jacob Shapiro:

like, okay, like it's a hedge on the United States, but that would

Jacob Shapiro:

be catastrophic for, uh, Canada.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like if the United States really fell apart into some kind of warring states

Jacob Shapiro:

version of China or something like that.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, maybe parts of Canada also get hid off or are gonna

Jacob Shapiro:

get negatively impacted by that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Also, Canada, not to get too, God, I can't believe I'm gonna be

Jacob Shapiro:

the one who talks about rivers on the podcast, but like, there's no

Jacob Shapiro:

Mississippi River Network in Canada.

Jacob Shapiro:

You don't that shit anymore.

Jacob Shapiro:

Come on.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's not the, you definitely do.

Jacob Shapiro:

You de I'm sitting here at, at the bottom of the Mississippi.

Jacob Shapiro:

It still matters, uh, for, in a big way.

Jacob Shapiro:

What

Marko Papic:

New Orleans matters 'cause of the Mississippi of course.

Marko Papic:

Oh, come on.

Marko Papic:

Well, how much trade A US trade actually goes down to Mississippi that's

Marko Papic:

actually been researched by actual researchers doing actual analysis.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, there you go.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, do, do, do, do approximately 500 million tons of goods annually.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't know what that means.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, 60% of US grain exports, if you're talking about LNG and

Jacob Shapiro:

things like that, also pretty big.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, so like you can count, you can go and count the ships and understand

Jacob Shapiro:

something about like US agricultural complex and things like that.

Marko Papic:

I mean, like maybe wheat because it's easy to put on a barge,

Marko Papic:

but you could also do that by train.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

For it's more costly.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, in terms of, in terms of, Russia

Marko Papic:

doesn't have any really useful rivers either.

Marko Papic:

Like, you know, it's not like the Russians are really, really using the ulca.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, but they do have the vulgar.

Jacob Shapiro:

But yes, there's a reason that Russia has never been able to succeed and

Jacob Shapiro:

achieve its geopolitical imperatives.

Marko Papic:

It's six that are, look Russia and Canada.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, because they

Jacob Shapiro:

have, they have a meaningful military and they're

Jacob Shapiro:

willing to use it and they have great power prediction capacity and like a

Jacob Shapiro:

population that is many times larger than that of Canada and is not completely

Jacob Shapiro:

economically dependent on its neighbor.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, it's getting that way because of what Putin did with Ukraine.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I'd, I would definitely rather have Russia than Canada on the geopolitical

Jacob Shapiro:

power index even 30 years out.

Marko Papic:

I think.

Marko Papic:

I think that's, that's true.

Marko Papic:

I would too.

Marko Papic:

That's what Canada's lower.

Marko Papic:

Um, and as I said, yes, I think it could be lower.

Marko Papic:

Look, I think you shouldn't over index on the hedge thing.

Marko Papic:

Um,

Jacob Shapiro:

I think, well, yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, so no.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, so, so the two other points you made the point about agriculture.

Jacob Shapiro:

Do you know what the second, um, uh, the second biggest agricultural exporter

Jacob Shapiro:

in terms of value is in the world?

Jacob Shapiro:

I. Russia products by value.

Jacob Shapiro:

Second largest exporter in the world of agricultural products.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think Russia.

Jacob Shapiro:

It is the Netherlands.

Jacob Shapiro:

Oh, you can do farming with technology and vertical farmings in all other different

Jacob Shapiro:

sorts of ways if you're willing to do it.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I think, actually, I think you're right that Canada geographically is bound

Jacob Shapiro:

to do well as a result of global warming.

Jacob Shapiro:

But Canada's institutions, some of the mechanisms around its agriculture

Jacob Shapiro:

are actually fairly antiquated.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I bet you some Canadian farmers wouldn't mind if some things weren't,

Jacob Shapiro:

uh, I'm thinking specifically about milk, but like I don't think that

Jacob Shapiro:

the system is actually that great.

Jacob Shapiro:

In some ways it's been so easy for them that they haven't had to

Jacob Shapiro:

invest in some of these things.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I would take the flip side and say, yes, they have natural advantages,

Jacob Shapiro:

but like it's, and um, it's not like they're the only game in town.

Jacob Shapiro:

And my list has producers like Russia, Brazil, um.

Jacob Shapiro:

Australia.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like there are some ag producers on here, so I don't discount it.

Jacob Shapiro:

I just don't think that it makes Canada, um, particularly unique.

Jacob Shapiro:

I accept your point about institutions.

Jacob Shapiro:

The biggest argument for Canada, to your point, is they have institutions.

Jacob Shapiro:

They could be a beacon for immigrants.

Jacob Shapiro:

They could get some of the best and brightest from the rest

Jacob Shapiro:

of the world to come to Canada instead of the United States.

Jacob Shapiro:

The problem with that is just that I think it's gonna require a lot of

Jacob Shapiro:

Canadian investment in becoming a leader in some of these things, and I don't

Jacob Shapiro:

see the political coherence or will to do that quite yet in Canada Now.

Jacob Shapiro:

30 years is a long time.

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe it pops up and they realize the United States is in decline in that sense,

Jacob Shapiro:

or is abdicating this position and they're perfectly suited to sort of soak up that.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I, I take your point there, but I would push back on the first two.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

But again, technology, uh, innovation in Canada has been massive, you know,

Marko Papic:

and I think that's what we're, uh, also missing, um, from your criticism.

Marko Papic:

I mean, that's, that's been like a constant stream of like,

Marko Papic:

oh shit, Canada invented that.

Marko Papic:

Um, that I think that it, you know, it, it signifies.

Marko Papic:

Basically there is something in the country that produces innovation.

Marko Papic:

That's very interesting.

Marko Papic:

And I think that's because of immigration.

Marko Papic:

I think it's because of great schools, because of quality of life.

Marko Papic:

Um, and uh, the other issue that I would point out is energy.

Marko Papic:

You didn't mention anything on energy.

Jacob Shapiro:

No.

Jacob Shapiro:

We've got too much oil.

Jacob Shapiro:

Cool.

Jacob Shapiro:

The world.

Jacob Shapiro:

The world has too much oil and Canada's oil infrastructure

Jacob Shapiro:

is all pointed downwards.

Jacob Shapiro:

No,

Marko Papic:

it's

Jacob Shapiro:

not.

Marko Papic:

No, but that's an easy fix.

Marko Papic:

That's an easy fix.

Marko Papic:

This is where I think you're missing what's happening.

Marko Papic:

Like Donald Trump.

Marko Papic:

That is the one thing, if I could say, of all the things that he's done wrong.

Marko Papic:

I think for the future of the us the biggest mistake was that Canada's

Marko Papic:

a milkshake with one straw in it.

Marko Papic:

And he's encouraging them to build two straws, two extra straws.

Marko Papic:

True and Dish, you know, the way that NDP and the Green Party performed in the

Marko Papic:

election was a clear rebuke by the, uh, Canadian population against this kind

Marko Papic:

of like very extreme environmentalism.

Marko Papic:

Um, where it, it's, it's kind of silly like Canada's gonna

Marko Papic:

produce these hydrocarbons.

Marko Papic:

Why limit their export if they're gonna be produced anyways?

Marko Papic:

Why are they all going to the us?

Marko Papic:

And so that energy infrastructure, I think is gonna be interesting.

Marko Papic:

And it could make Canada very, to your point, that it doesn't really

Marko Papic:

have a lot of, uh, pool in the world.

Marko Papic:

It doesn't because all of its, uh, trade is with the us.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, what else on the list?

Jacob Shapiro:

Is there anything else we need to, by the way, Canada, I, I like

Jacob Shapiro:

you like, on different lists.

Jacob Shapiro:

I would have you very close to the top.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's just in this very narrowly idiosyncratic way that I'm, I'm

Jacob Shapiro:

pushing you down, but I like you guys and you shouldn't be the 51st state.

Jacob Shapiro:

You should be your own state forever and ever.

Marko Papic:

Uh, anything else?

Marko Papic:

I think Japan, well, we kind of moved Japan.

Marko Papic:

We got Argentina lower.

Marko Papic:

I think the honorable mentions are interesting of, of those,

Marko Papic:

the Nordic Union, uh, which of course is a play on the future.

Marko Papic:

Israel, Poland.

Marko Papic:

Malaysia, UAE, Uzbekistan, Rwanda.

Marko Papic:

I think Israel, Israel's really the one that's the toughest.

Marko Papic:

Um, I think Aion just because again, to use the quantitative

Marko Papic:

index, Israel is 19th by the way, if you use the quantitative index.

Marko Papic:

I created Israel's 19th, the one from the Cold War, which obviously

Marko Papic:

emphasizes just raw things like size of military, size of population.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

Israel is 40th still pretty good for a country of, you know, 10 million people.

Marko Papic:

Still pretty impressive that it makes it nation Yeah, it makes it to that list.

Marko Papic:

Uh.

Marko Papic:

Top 40, uh, but it is 19th on the geopolitical power index I created, um,

Marko Papic:

using some of this quantitative stuff.

Marko Papic:

Um, so yeah.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, I

Jacob Shapiro:

just, I, I think the thing with Israel is like, um,

Jacob Shapiro:

it feels like the past, it feels like it's not gonna be the future.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like imagine if you and I were sitting here in 1949 creating this

Jacob Shapiro:

index, we wouldn't have put Israel anywhere close to the top who

Jacob Shapiro:

should have, let alone the top 50.

Jacob Shapiro:

But what they did over the course of the next 30 years was remarkable.

Jacob Shapiro:

So in some ways, I think we're looking for the next Israel, I'm not sure that

Jacob Shapiro:

Israel's gonna go back and reinvent itself the way that it did in 1949.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now it does have nuclear weapons and it does have institutions and it does

Jacob Shapiro:

have an existential need to exist and all these other different things.

Jacob Shapiro:

So like I, I see it.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, but you know, in some sense their need to dictate action in

Jacob Shapiro:

their regional sphere, um, is.

Jacob Shapiro:

A sign of weakness and like they're losing.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I think the relationship with the US is fraying and who is gonna

Jacob Shapiro:

be like the security guarantor?

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause Israel has always needed some Big Mac daddy in the

Jacob Shapiro:

background who's gonna help them.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, they've never done this alone.

Jacob Shapiro:

And it's, it sure seems like they're starting to embark on a world where

Jacob Shapiro:

they're having to do it alone.

Jacob Shapiro:

And that should be very frightening for Israeli strategic decision makers.

Jacob Shapiro:

But to your point, they've done it in the past and they do, like,

Jacob Shapiro:

they're, they're not starting from zero like they were before.

Jacob Shapiro:

So,

Marko Papic:

you know, my concern, my concern Jacob, is that like, the

Marko Papic:

future is not about demographics.

Marko Papic:

Sorry.

Marko Papic:

And it's not about rivers, sorry to YouTube, but it's not like geography

Marko Papic:

and humans are being constantly, constantly throughout human history

Marko Papic:

have been disrupted by technology.

Marko Papic:

I mean, do you, United Kingdom being the greatest example, and please don't

Marko Papic:

tell me Tames is a fucking river.

Marko Papic:

You know what I mean?

Marko Papic:

It's like an tu like no, no.

Marko Papic:

Grain is being transship by tames.

Marko Papic:

So the Thames, sorry.

Marko Papic:

My point is that technology always, always, always, always wins.

Marko Papic:

You know?

Marko Papic:

Always wins it.

Marko Papic:

Like just, it just does.

Marko Papic:

That's why I picked South Korea as high as I did.

Marko Papic:

'cause I'm betting that their unique mix of necessities, insecurity,

Marko Papic:

all this stuff, you know your point about North Korea being subsumed

Marko Papic:

at some point, which is good too.

Marko Papic:

I didn't even think about that.

Marko Papic:

But to me, South Korea is number seven because of technology.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

India I think can also do the same.

Marko Papic:

And then obviously the standard US China, EMU five.

Marko Papic:

My concern is when I look at our list, some of the countries that I

Marko Papic:

picked that don't have, oh by the way, Canada too, like my point is Canada

Marko Papic:

has endogenous technology, great universities, and has done it in the past.

Marko Papic:

It's proven in the past that it can actually innovate in

Marko Papic:

like globally relevant ways.

Marko Papic:

My concern is when I look at this list, the countries who haven't

Marko Papic:

really been able to do that.

Marko Papic:

Uh, so you are a pick of Mexico?

Marko Papic:

My pick of Argentina.

Marko Papic:

South Africa actually has innovated technologically, so it's not like.

Marko Papic:

That's a silly Ukraine.

Marko Papic:

I picked Ukraine in the top 20 because they've proven in this conflict that

Marko Papic:

they can innovate, uh, massively.

Marko Papic:

Some of the, yeah,

Jacob Shapiro:

we, we got some pushback from, from listeners about Ukraine and my

Jacob Shapiro:

point about Ukraine was, if you're looking for the Israel of the next 30 years,

Jacob Shapiro:

Ukraine is probably the one, like it has a lot of weird similarities with Israel.

Jacob Shapiro:

You know,

Marko Papic:

late think those were Russian bots at Twitter, you know, like, come on.

Marko Papic:

Like clearly like, but the, you know, Singapore, okay, so Singapore on that

Marko Papic:

rubric of technology I think is great, but this is where I worry that yeah, we,

Marko Papic:

we over index on like Israel's domestic politics perhaps, and its demographics.

Marko Papic:

But what we, I think, I think Israel and UAE are honorable mentions and Nordic

Marko Papic:

Union Sweden has, I. Sweden punches way above any country on the planet when

Marko Papic:

it comes to technological innovation.

Marko Papic:

Like you're talking about a country of 10 million people as

Marko Papic:

fighter jets that people buy.

Marko Papic:

Come on.

Marko Papic:

This is like serious, serious, serious capability.

Marko Papic:

So anyways, I think that probably we should have thought

Marko Papic:

about that a little bit more.

Marko Papic:

I, I do worry about my Indonesia picket 11.

Marko Papic:

You know, I worry about Turkey at four, although they have shown the ability

Marko Papic:

to innovate and they have absolutely.

Marko Papic:

Turkey at

Jacob Shapiro:

four is high.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'd be the first to admit that and like, it probably should not be ahead of India.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, but I go back and forth about India, like some days I'm like, India should

Jacob Shapiro:

probably be number two on this list.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then, and then some days I'm like, India will be 25 because it won't

Jacob Shapiro:

be able to get its shit together.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I really, I'm ambivalent

Marko Papic:

and I'm really, I'm really happy people didn't get

Marko Papic:

any hit, hit mail on India because I thought, well that's probably

Jacob Shapiro:

just 'cause nobody from India listened.

Jacob Shapiro:

If they did, I'm sure

Marko Papic:

we, I think they do.

Marko Papic:

I think they do.

Marko Papic:

But I think that they were, uh, appropriately satisfied with it, you know.

Marko Papic:

I feel like Indian Twitter is kind of like Portland's trailblazers fans.

Marko Papic:

Like if you are not saying like Portland Trailblazer fans are famously, like soccer

Marko Papic:

moms, very productive of their children.

Marko Papic:

I feel like I thought we would get hate mail for having

Marko Papic:

India theft, but we didn't.

Marko Papic:

I think it's appropriate and they do have that technology factor.

Marko Papic:

But anyways, the technology factor is what worries me because your example of

Marko Papic:

19, us sitting, sitting and doing this in 1946, if we were sitting and doing this

Marko Papic:

in 1946, like who would've picked that?

Marko Papic:

Israel would be one of the greatest technological, uh,

Marko Papic:

wellsprings of innovation.

Marko Papic:

Um, and I think that that's what has kept Israel as high as it has been.

Marko Papic:

So I do think that that maybe is something we are understating by focusing still.

Marko Papic:

It's, it's so funny.

Marko Papic:

We're trying to resist the pool of demographics and

Marko Papic:

rivers and humans and wheat.

Marko Papic:

Yet, I mean, Indonesia picket 11, you know, like Argentina, Mexico, a

Marko Papic:

lot of these picks are based on some of those, maybe a little bit over,

Marko Papic:

um, stated geopolitical qualities.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, and it's a, and like this list has to be dynamic.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, I think the thought experiment of, if we were trying to do this in 1946

Jacob Shapiro:

or 1949, like who would be on the list?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like obviously we can't like, forget all of our knowledge and really

Jacob Shapiro:

put ourselves, uh, back in 1946.

Jacob Shapiro:

We should, we, we should be able to try.

Jacob Shapiro:

But like if we were doing that and just, you know, thinking like what was

Jacob Shapiro:

conventional knowledge at the time?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, I wonder what that list would look like.

Jacob Shapiro:

It would probably look like us Soviet Union and then what the United Nations

Jacob Shapiro:

would be third, like Japan wouldn't be on there like, uh, German, like all

Jacob Shapiro:

these different countries that like really defined the next three decades

Jacob Shapiro:

would probably not be on the list.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause the world just came out from a war and everybody was bombed.

Jacob Shapiro:

Wait,

Marko Papic:

Jacob, Jacob, Paula, I actually think we should do this.

Marko Papic:

We should do this in couple, when, when things slow down,

Jacob Shapiro:

which will never No.

Jacob Shapiro:

Our, our next draft.

Jacob Shapiro:

We could do our next draft.

Marko Papic:

No, but the reason I think it'll be interesting, Jacob, is that if

Marko Papic:

you and I were in 1946, I think you and I still picked China and India, high

Jacob Shapiro:

India.

Marko Papic:

We do, we do.

Marko Papic:

A hundred percent.

Marko Papic:

No, no.

Marko Papic:

Listen, we do.

Marko Papic:

I swear to you, we do, we do.

Marko Papic:

Let's put ourselves You'll be smoking.

Marko Papic:

I'll be drinking heavily, right?

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

We'll do it.

Marko Papic:

The the point is not that we wouldn't, the point is that we would and we'd be wrong.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's true.

Marko Papic:

That's the point.

Marko Papic:

The point is that you would've picked Brazil.

Marko Papic:

Oh, well they avoided World War ii.

Marko Papic:

I love Brazil.

Marko Papic:

I'm a soft ax guy.

Marko Papic:

I know how important this is.

Marko Papic:

Boom, err wrong.

Marko Papic:

I would've been like, listen, India, there's a movement for independence.

Marko Papic:

It's gonna be infused with new energy, you know?

Marko Papic:

Wrong.

Marko Papic:

Then you would've been like, yo, China, you just wait.

Marko Papic:

You know, they're gonna, like, in industrialize, I think Miles's gonna

Marko Papic:

shift from being a guerilla soldier to being a modernizer err wrong.

Marko Papic:

You know?

Marko Papic:

And that's what it would've been so exciting to actually do.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, it would've, but like the actual, like if, if we were

Jacob Shapiro:

good analysts, let's assume for a second we were good analysts in 1946.

Jacob Shapiro:

If we were good analysts, the list would be Russia or would

Jacob Shapiro:

be United States, Soviet Union.

Jacob Shapiro:

End of list.

Marko Papic:

End of list.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like that.

Jacob Shapiro:

You, you would've had the balls to be like, I reject this entire exercise.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's that the two get, get out my face.

Marko Papic:

Nobody cares.

Marko Papic:

But listen, I think, you know, what I'm getting at here is that I think when

Marko Papic:

we talk geopolitics, I think it's a big mistake to use immutable variables.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

You know, and that's really, and that goes against our training at Stratfor by

Marko Papic:

the way, that goes against very training that you and I received in our youth.

Marko Papic:

I think it goes against the training that most people think goes into

Marko Papic:

being a geopolitical analyst.

Marko Papic:

It's like, well wait, if I use things like demographics, which are slow

Marko Papic:

moving rivers, geography, natural defenses, natural resources, I should

Marko Papic:

produce a relatively correct list.

Marko Papic:

And that's my point.

Marko Papic:

In 1946, you would've picked, not you, but like one would've picked fairly,

Marko Papic:

like consistently the same countries, and yet it is the Netherlands and yet

Marko Papic:

it is Israel, and yet it is some random South Korea that's like barely, I

Marko Papic:

mean, that was like pushed to the very East China Sea, you know what I mean?

Marko Papic:

Like it, it is these countries that end up outperforming expectations

Marko Papic:

because true innovation and true, true power and, and true like.

Marko Papic:

Abilities come out of necessity, not the plenty.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, I, I agree with you.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm gonna make one semantic change to what you say.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause I dunno if you saw, we had one per person who replied to us on Twitter

Jacob Shapiro:

that said we were taking some shots at Peter and, and George and the godfathers

Jacob Shapiro:

who, uh, taught us and things like that.

Jacob Shapiro:

But one of the reasons I'm so frustrated with, with George and with Peter and

Jacob Shapiro:

some of those others, and by the way, I. We don't have careers without them.

Jacob Shapiro:

So everything I say like if Iain to speak about them, it's

Jacob Shapiro:

actually a sign of respect.

Jacob Shapiro:

If I don't respect you, I probably won't use your name at all.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I have a healthy level of respect even when I disagree with them.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I think we were taught actually that there are no immutable principles

Jacob Shapiro:

that rivers can change and that technology can be created that makes

Jacob Shapiro:

what was a previously really strong like longstanding thing change overnight.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like the rise of precision guided munitions and the

Jacob Shapiro:

semiconductor in industry.

Jacob Shapiro:

And everything that happened with it completely revolutionized

Jacob Shapiro:

geopolitics basically overnight.

Jacob Shapiro:

And that happens in the late 1950s.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I think we were actually taught to be highly attuned to that, that the

Jacob Shapiro:

hardest part of geopolitical analysis is yes, you're looking for the thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

That feels immutable today, and which defines the center of gravity today.

Jacob Shapiro:

But you also have to be flexible enough in your mind to throw it all out of the

Jacob Shapiro:

window tomorrow because you read some article in the, you know, Uzbekistani

Jacob Shapiro:

post that suggests that it's all going to change in the next 10 years.

Jacob Shapiro:

And being able to throw out your old mental model and embrace a new one and

Jacob Shapiro:

say, okay, this is the new immutable principle for the next 30 years.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, that was the training that I got.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I feel like, you know, geopolitical analysts who have started resting on

Jacob Shapiro:

their laurels, that's when they start going back to, and the river is here and

Jacob Shapiro:

the demographic pyramid says this, and I'm just gonna, you know, extrapolate

Jacob Shapiro:

from this going into the future.

Jacob Shapiro:

Whereas like the really hard thing, like I said, is for us to be here next

Jacob Shapiro:

week, let's say some discovery gets made for fusion, and we look at each other

Jacob Shapiro:

and we're like, all right, everything we've said for the last 10 years to

Jacob Shapiro:

our clients, it was all fucking wrong.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, we gotta change everything.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like we have to start from scratch and you have to do that exercise like constantly.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, in this business, not.

Marko Papic:

So I'm not sure we were taught that though, because, you

Marko Papic:

know, I mean like the whole point of, and, and I think we, we should

Marko Papic:

dedicate a whole episode just in the concept of geopolitical imperatives.

Marko Papic:

Um mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

But I, but you know, like for example, yeah, I'm, I'm not sure

Marko Papic:

that that was ever effected.

Marko Papic:

And you know, one of the interesting things about finance and geopolitics

Marko Papic:

is that the reason you can have geopolitical trades is because some of

Marko Papic:

these long-term trends just don't matter.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

You know, they just, and they, and they, they might matter on a 30 or 50 year

Marko Papic:

time horizon, but they don't matter on a five or 10 year time horizon.

Marko Papic:

Countries do revolt against their geographic prisons, against their

Marko Papic:

demographic prisons, and they revolt against them through innovation.

Marko Papic:

Through productivity and through surprising, you know, and that's,

Marko Papic:

again, going back to 1946.

Marko Papic:

I think we pick a lot of these countries in 1946 and we end up being wrong.

Marko Papic:

You know, we, we ignore Europe, we ignore the Netherlands, we ignore

Marko Papic:

Israel, we ignore South Korea.

Marko Papic:

Um, and we're shocked by what, what comes after.

Jacob Shapiro:

All right.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, so we'll do a future episode on geopolitical imperatives, and I'm gonna

Jacob Shapiro:

take the reins here and use that as the perfect segue, because speaking of

Jacob Shapiro:

revolting against constraints, um, let's start sort of our 30 minutes around

Jacob Shapiro:

the world with this narrowly passed sweeping tax cut bill from President

Jacob Shapiro:

Trump and the Republicans that is on its way to the Senate, uh, different,

Jacob Shapiro:

you know, independent sources saying it's gonna add 4 trillion roughly to the

Jacob Shapiro:

US deficit over the next decade or so.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna pretend to be humble.

Jacob Shapiro:

I said two things at the beginning of the Trump administration that he

Jacob Shapiro:

wasn't gonna be able to double down on tariffs, and that there was no way

Jacob Shapiro:

in hell that this administration was going to be fiscally conservative.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, and we've seen Elon Musk has exited stage left.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, he's very chagrined by his support.

Jacob Shapiro:

And the Republicans and the Trump LED White House are

Jacob Shapiro:

going to blow out the deficit.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think that's the news, um, of the week there.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'll let you cook from there, but I think it, I, I say it's a revolt

Jacob Shapiro:

against constraints because I wonder how you think about this.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like the, the extent of US debt in and of itself has become a constraint.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think you can see that in the way the dollar's behaving and the way that

Jacob Shapiro:

US Treasury yields are going and the way that other countries are dealing.

Jacob Shapiro:

With the United States, with the Moody's downgrade, like the debt itself has

Jacob Shapiro:

become so big that it is a constraint.

Jacob Shapiro:

And rather than President Trump sticking to the guns that got him sort of elected

Jacob Shapiro:

with your Elon Musk and your, you know, your fiscal hawks and things like that

Jacob Shapiro:

in the background, he's going, screw it.

Jacob Shapiro:

Let's do another 4 trillion.

Jacob Shapiro:

Let's do more than we did with the pandemic and with the, the

Jacob Shapiro:

previous tax cuts combined.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'll let you cook from there.

Marko Papic:

Well, your math is not really correct.

Marko Papic:

Great.

Marko Papic:

Correct.

Marko Papic:

Correct me.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I want you to know listeners.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, uh, I was a member of the Weber school math team in high school.

Jacob Shapiro:

I competed with them for three years.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mostly was there for the free pizza that came along.

Jacob Shapiro:

I competed at math competitions for three years in high school.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, I did not get a single problem.

Jacob Shapiro:

Correct in my three years in, in competition.

Marko Papic:

Jacob, Jacob, I got three degrees in political

Marko Papic:

science, which is three too many.

Marko Papic:

So like I am not a math guy.

Marko Papic:

It's just that we need to kind of think about the numbers, right?

Marko Papic:

The pandemic was an orgy of fiscal spending.

Marko Papic:

It was, you know, 5 trillion in basically four years.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, the current bill that just barely passed the house is 2.3 trillion

Marko Papic:

additional, um, deficit over 10 years.

Marko Papic:

So the rate of change in adding to the deficit has massively collapsed.

Marko Papic:

Now, the reason that I don't think President Trump campaigned

Marko Papic:

on fiscal conservatism at all.

Marko Papic:

He campaigned on prophecy.

Marko Papic:

He, his promises and, you know, various think tanks, like actually

Marko Papic:

tried to put math behind his sort of, you know, campaign promises that

Marko Papic:

he would think of in the moment.

Marko Papic:

His campaign promises, if they were actually affected, would've

Marko Papic:

added 10 to $15 trillion.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

To the deficit.

Marko Papic:

So let me just put that very clearly.

Marko Papic:

Let, let's take the low end of that.

Marko Papic:

'cause let's say 15 trillion was always going to be impossible.

Marko Papic:

His campaign promises would've added 10.

Marko Papic:

This bill adds 2.3 over 10 years.

Marko Papic:

So it's a fifth of what he promised.

Marko Papic:

And the reason for that is that the sequencing here, I think Jacob, is that it

Marko Papic:

was the bond market riot in November and December, which many people didn't even

Marko Papic:

experience, but people who trade fixed income, they definitely know it happened.

Marko Papic:

The Fed cut interest rates a hundred base points.

Marko Papic:

The fed controls the short end of the curve.

Marko Papic:

Usually when the Fed cuts interest rates, the long end comes down too.

Marko Papic:

So you, you are borrowing rates of for your mortgage or for your credit card.

Marko Papic:

They get adjusted lower when the fed cuts rates.

Marko Papic:

That didn't happen in November and December of 2024 for the first

Marko Papic:

time in 50 years of US history.

Marko Papic:

In other words, the long end.

Marko Papic:

Acted the way Brazil's long end would act after the election

Marko Papic:

of a populist president.

Marko Papic:

And it was that selloff in the bond market in November and December that

Marko Papic:

forced the house to become a lot more conservative, or not forced,

Marko Papic:

but gave them the sort of backing.

Marko Papic:

They got emboldened, oh, look at what the bond market is seeing.

Marko Papic:

And it forced President Trump to do two things.

Marko Papic:

He didn't wanna do Doge, he didn't wanna do that, but he did it because

Marko Papic:

of that bond market move in October, November and December as the bond

Marko Papic:

market was rioting due to his election.

Marko Papic:

And finally he selected Scott Beson for the Treasury Secretary.

Marko Papic:

There were rumors that Howard Lutnick had basically outmaneuvered him

Marko Papic:

and his call Bestin shows up last minute and actually calms down the

Marko Papic:

bond market just by being there.

Marko Papic:

He the White House, just as a human being.

Marko Papic:

So the sequence is this, president Trump becomes a viable candidate in September.

Marko Papic:

People realize he's gonna probably cook Harris.

Marko Papic:

Bond market starts agitating higher and higher.

Marko Papic:

It gets to 4.8% of the 10 year yield, and it was that move from 3.6 to 4.8.

Marko Papic:

That freaks out everyone.

Jacob Shapiro:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

And that leads to Doge Scott, treasury Secretary, and the

Marko Papic:

House of Representatives becomes emboldened to ask, ask for cuts.

Marko Papic:

What we have in this bill is something that nobody really expected last

Marko Papic:

year, which is that there will be cuts to offset some of the spending.

Marko Papic:

And so instead of $10 trillion, addition to the deficit, we get 2.3 trillion.

Marko Papic:

Now, is it fiscal conservatism?

Marko Papic:

Well, no, because they're adding to the deficit.

Marko Papic:

But I need to remind you that extension of 2017, tax cut alone,

Marko Papic:

just that extension is $5 trillion.

Marko Papic:

4.8. So the fact that we're only adding 2.3 trillion to the deficit over the next

Marko Papic:

10 years is to me a shocking outcome.

Marko Papic:

Unexpected outcome because it means that that $5 trillion bill to

Marko Papic:

just keep our tax rates the same.

Marko Papic:

Let me just be clear.

Marko Papic:

This isn't about cutting taxes.

Marko Papic:

It's about keeping the current legislative tax base the way it is, that in of

Marko Papic:

itself costs money just to keep the taxes the same, costs money because

Marko Papic:

in 2017, they were not paid for it.

Marko Papic:

Therefore, the reconciliation bill required it to expire seven years later.

Marko Papic:

We are seven years later, eight years later, 2025.

Marko Papic:

The legislation expires at the end of this year, that 2017, so we're spending

Marko Papic:

5 trillion purely on keeping things the way they are, and yet somehow

Marko Papic:

they find enough cuts so that the deficit only expands 2.3 trillion.

Marko Papic:

Now, a couple of things on this.

Marko Papic:

I'm the guy who coined the term human steeper.

Marko Papic:

President Trump is.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

Means that there's a sell off.

Marko Papic:

But that already happened, and I think a lot of people look at this

Marko Papic:

bill and they're saying like, oh, here comes the bond market riots.

Marko Papic:

And I'm like, no, no, no, no, no, no.

Marko Papic:

It was the bond market riot in November and December that got us this bill.

Marko Papic:

So

Marko Papic:

I'm not sure there's gonna be another really significant sell off in bonds

Marko Papic:

because look, at the end of the day, the bond market always knew the

Marko Papic:

2017 legislation would be extended.

Marko Papic:

It'd always do the math of it, that it's $5 trillion.

Marko Papic:

And it always knew that it would be highly unlikely to find

Marko Papic:

enough cuts to offset all of it.

Marko Papic:

So the fact that the deficit increases by 2 trillion is not that much.

Marko Papic:

Plus the tariff tariff level of 10% is probably gonna stay.

Marko Papic:

Right.

Marko Papic:

I think we all at this point agree, Jacob, that we're gonna have some sort

Marko Papic:

of a flat tariff of about 10% that brings in probably a hundred to 200 billion.

Marko Papic:

So if you actually add that to this bill, honestly, it's kind of offset.

Marko Papic:

So

Jacob Shapiro:

you're, you're zagging.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, I like it.

Marko Papic:

So, so what I'm saying to you is like, you have a shocking outcome.

Marko Papic:

You have most of President Trump's priorities that he talked

Marko Papic:

about during his, uh, campaign.

Marko Papic:

You know, he talked about lower corporate taxes, he talked about

Marko Papic:

lowering corporate taxes and stuff.

Marko Papic:

None of that stuff is gonna happen, Jacob.

Marko Papic:

None of it.

Marko Papic:

All he's gonna get is taxes and tips are gonna go down.

Marko Papic:

Yay.

Marko Papic:

Alright, cool.

Marko Papic:

You know, like, I don't see like how much, whatever.

Marko Papic:

I'm not gonna perjure myself here.

Marko Papic:

I was gonna say, if I was gonna do tips, I,

Marko Papic:

I mean you plead a favor.

Marko Papic:

Uh, alright.

Marko Papic:

You

Jacob Shapiro:

heard it here first.

Jacob Shapiro:

We're, we're now charging for our analysis.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

Just the dollar per, uh, per uh, per appearance.

Marko Papic:

We got a tip charge, but no, look, here's what I'm seeing.

Marko Papic:

Like you've got.

Marko Papic:

The tax cuts from 2017 to to be extended.

Marko Papic:

I hate the way we frame that.

Marko Papic:

That's not extending tax cuts.

Marko Papic:

Let's, let me rephrase it.

Marko Papic:

It's gonna cost $5 trillion to keep our tax codes the same.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

So that's what we're gonna do.

Marko Papic:

We're gonna get some taxes and tips, mortgage, like modify a

Marko Papic:

little bit, some salt stuff.

Marko Papic:

And then we're gonna do a bunch of cuts to make sure that it's only 2 trillion.

Marko Papic:

And then we're gonna add a VAT tax on our consumers also

Marko Papic:

called the 10% import tariff.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, let's call that for what it is.

Marko Papic:

It's a federal VAT tax.

Marko Papic:

Effectively.

Marko Papic:

I see.

Marko Papic:

So actually, I think President Trump is running on a Nikki Haley policy

Marko Papic:

because they're going to cut Medicaid benefits, they're going to cut welfare,

Marko Papic:

they're going to have cuts, and they're raising consumption taxes on Americans

Marko Papic:

through that 10% import tariff.

Marko Papic:

And that gets you to very little fiscal thrust, and there's gonna be very little

Marko Papic:

stimulative effort out of this bill.

Marko Papic:

It's basically non-existent, that 5 trillion, again, we're spending 5

Marko Papic:

trillion to keep our taxes the same.

Marko Papic:

We're gonna expand the deficit over the next 10 years.

Marko Papic:

Jacob byte 5 trillion.

Marko Papic:

And it will have no impact on consumption or investment in this country.

Marko Papic:

You are not gonna change your behavior next year if your taxes the same.

Marko Papic:

It's not like you actually thought that 2017 tax cuts would expire.

Marko Papic:

Nobody did.

Marko Papic:

If Kamala Harris won as the president.

Marko Papic:

President Harris would've extended the 2017 tax cuts.

Marko Papic:

Like obviously no one's gonna let taxes go back up.

Marko Papic:

That does, like, doesn't happen in America, you know?

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, no, I, I love the zag.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, and it's good for the listeners that you and I would take opposite

Jacob Shapiro:

sides of this a little bit, and, and maybe you're, you're right,

Jacob Shapiro:

like maybe I'm too far into it.

Jacob Shapiro:

And also I think it's worth saying like, this still has to get through the Senate.

Jacob Shapiro:

We could see significant changes in the Senate, you know.

Jacob Shapiro:

Is it 2 trillion?

Jacob Shapiro:

Could it go up to 5 trillion?

Jacob Shapiro:

What is the cost if you factor in increased interest rates over time?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like there's, you know, what does military spending look like?

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, is the growth real or not?

Jacob Shapiro:

I think one of my biggest criticisms would be that we're not, the

Jacob Shapiro:

United States is not setting itself up for meaningful growth.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, there isn't meaningful investment in things like infrastructure or

Jacob Shapiro:

innovation that is part of the spending.

Jacob Shapiro:

So this notion that you're gonna grow your way out of some of these

Jacob Shapiro:

things, like, 'cause part of this, like they're projecting higher growth

Jacob Shapiro:

rates along with that, and I think some of that growth is kind of empty.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, I, I think you're also right to say that, um, Trump did not

Jacob Shapiro:

campaign only on fiscal conservatism.

Jacob Shapiro:

He talked out of both sides of his mouth.

Jacob Shapiro:

So when he was with people, yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

You know, he wanted to talk to the fiscal conservatives and he wanted

Jacob Shapiro:

to talk to the, you know, the populace and he merged them together.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, but I always said at his core, he, he never wanted anything to do

Jacob Shapiro:

with the fiscal conservatives, but.

Jacob Shapiro:

In the nod to Doge and to Elon Musk, like he did all of this grandstanding

Jacob Shapiro:

cutting U-S-A-I-D, cutting innovation funds, things like that without much

Jacob Shapiro:

benefit to the budget, actually probably damaged the US in the long run with some

Jacob Shapiro:

of these intangibles that the United States has always been so good at.

Jacob Shapiro:

And now he's going back to his tried and true sort of populace.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm gonna blow out the deficit thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

And no, I don't think that this shows any sense of, um, of measure.

Jacob Shapiro:

You mentioned Medicaid, they're not gonna cut Medicaid.

Jacob Shapiro:

Let me get this quote from President Trump.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, that, uh, two Republicans anonymous, anonymously told, uh, Politico that he'd

Jacob Shapiro:

been meeting with, um, some conservative hardliners on the budget who were

Jacob Shapiro:

pushing for deeper cuts to Medicaid.

Jacob Shapiro:

And here is the quote from President Trump to them.

Jacob Shapiro:

Quote, don't fuck around with Medicaid.

Jacob Shapiro:

End quote.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, he's not, he's not trying to cut.

Jacob Shapiro:

I know, but we're like, we still have to go to the Senate, like,

Jacob Shapiro:

and who, who says he is gonna sign, like he's gonna be the one that

Jacob Shapiro:

was like arbit of getting Medicaid.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I don't even know what's gonna get through the Senate.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, I I understand that we're early here, but, uh, I don't know.

Jacob Shapiro:

I I'm, I'll take the other side.

Marko Papic:

Look, it's 20 20 15 to 2014.

Marko Papic:

What I would say to you is that if this bill gets changed, it will be

Marko Papic:

changed towards a more conservative side, not towards the more provate

Marko Papic:

side, because he Well, that'll be

Jacob Shapiro:

interesting.

Marko Papic:

No, no, because he is not a conservative,

Marko Papic:

so you're right.

Marko Papic:

He, he wants the bill to be bigger, but the conservative in the house are

Marko Papic:

the ones that are holding that back and they will be aided by the bond market.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

So what they did overnight is they actually, so the

Marko Papic:

Medicaid, uh, means testing.

Marko Papic:

So you need to show that you're working and so on, or trying

Marko Papic:

to get a job to get benefits.

Marko Papic:

That was pulled back by three years from 2029 when he's out of office to 2026.

Jacob Shapiro:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

In order to pass the house.

Marko Papic:

And so my my point is that they did mess with Medicaid and he

Marko Papic:

is happy that it got through.

Marko Papic:

I'm, I'm not sure the Senate is gonna modify the bill that much.

Marko Papic:

I mean, maybe they will, but I think that this people confuse who's

Marko Papic:

more on President Trump's side.

Marko Papic:

I think everyone over indexes on 2017 experience when it was the Senate

Marko Papic:

that stood against him on Obamacare.

Jacob Shapiro:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

This time around, throughout this entire experience of following

Marko Papic:

this budget process since January very closely it's been the house that's

Marko Papic:

been resisting him, not the Senate.

Marko Papic:

So, I mean, if the Senate wants this bill to pass, they need to kind of pass

Marko Papic:

it quickly and just like, like end it.

Marko Papic:

Because I don't think we're gonna get, this is as profligate, which,

Marko Papic:

if that's a GRE word for anyone, that means this is as that populous

Marko Papic:

spend heavy as you're gonna get.

Marko Papic:

Uh, it just cannot, you're not gonna be able to get it through the house

Marko Papic:

if you get any more aggressive.

Marko Papic:

And the bond market is sitting in the sideline right now.

Marko Papic:

And if you are right and I'm wrong on the politics, then

Marko Papic:

the bond market gets involved.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

And then I'm right again because, you know, and we saw this in

Marko Papic:

January again, the house started talking about cuts, not last year.

Marko Papic:

Donald Trump and his, Cory and his supporters did not talk

Marko Papic:

about any cuts on anything.

Marko Papic:

At any point in the campaign, doge came in and said, oh, we can fire bureaucrats.

Marko Papic:

Oh, because there's so many of them and they get paid so much.

Marko Papic:

No, that's not gonna do anything.

Marko Papic:

So Doge never seriously contemplated, actually, like anyone who understands how

Marko Papic:

America works, understands there, like, you cannot cut $2 trillion out of American

Marko Papic:

spending without going to Congress.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, EII think Elon thought he could, but to your point,

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't think he understands America

Marko Papic:

well.

Marko Papic:

Also, how appropriation works.

Marko Papic:

Like you can't just say like, we're not gonna take the money.

Marko Papic:

No, no.

Marko Papic:

It was appropriated by congress, by law.

Marko Papic:

You know, you gotta take the money, how you use it, you can burn it in api,

Marko Papic:

but it's been appropriated by Congress.

Marko Papic:

And so the issue is that the House of Representatives really revolted against

Marko Papic:

Trump in December when they denied him his request to punt the debt ceiling to 2029.

Marko Papic:

Nobody really paid attention to that, except for me.

Marko Papic:

To me, that was a really big moment when republicans in his own party after

Marko Papic:

an extraordinary electoral victory by the president, said no to him.

Marko Papic:

And then in January they started adding cuts.

Marko Papic:

And I think that the Trump administration basically gave into the cuts at all

Marko Papic:

any cuts because of the bond market action from November to January.

Marko Papic:

And so, unless they want bond yields to go back up to 4.8, where they peaked,

Marko Papic:

um, and if they wanted to go to five.

Marko Papic:

Then have a carnage in stock market, which they can't control at that point.

Marko Papic:

It's not about tariff levels, it's not about negotiations with China.

Marko Papic:

This is now bond market saying, we don't like your deficits, but you are right.

Marko Papic:

Deficits will expand.

Marko Papic:

And actually what I think Jacob just says to us is the following, the delta

Marko Papic:

in adding to the deficit is collapsing.

Marko Papic:

You know, we went from adding like mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

2 trillion in one year to 2 trillion in one year to 2 trillion over 10 years.

Marko Papic:

That's a huge delta change towards conservatism.

Marko Papic:

But it's not enough because to your point, wait a minute, it doesn't decrease

Marko Papic:

the deficit over the next seven years.

Marko Papic:

Exactly.

Marko Papic:

And so what that means is that the difficult work will be left for either

Marko Papic:

the last two years of Trump like presidency or the presidency in 2028.

Marko Papic:

Whoever gets elected.

Marko Papic:

If it's a OC, she's gonna no but, but she's gonna deal with

Marko Papic:

the deficit one way or another, and she's got a solution to it.

Marko Papic:

You know, it's raising taxes or maybe it's Nikki Healy and she's

Marko Papic:

gonna have a solution to it as well.

Marko Papic:

It's gonna be a little bit different.

Marko Papic:

It's gonna be cutting spending.

Marko Papic:

So I think that the US is on an inexorable path towards fiscal conservatives.

Marko Papic:

That's like, what's just gonna happen?

Jacob Shapiro:

Or it's Donald Jr. Um, while we're talking, Marco, I

Jacob Shapiro:

was just seeing the Economist, uh, uh, release its cover for this week.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's the remarkable rise of Poland.

Jacob Shapiro:

I feel so bad for Poland.

Jacob Shapiro:

I've been bullish Poland too.

Jacob Shapiro:

God, the economist just jinxed them while we've been talking.

Marko Papic:

Well, no, but we didn't put them in 1220.

Marko Papic:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

Right.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, we didn't, we we did it.

Jacob Shapiro:

We, we did it really good.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, okay, second thing, let's turn to, uh, we've talked about the Middle

Jacob Shapiro:

East quite a bit, so we're only gonna spend a little bit of time on this,

Jacob Shapiro:

but I do think it is worth talking about this a little bit, um, because

Jacob Shapiro:

you've had the Trump administration really change its messaging on Israel.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, trying to get Israel tougher on stopping bombing Gaza into

Jacob Shapiro:

the middle of the middle Ages.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, it's already done that it's, I guess now it's trying to return

Jacob Shapiro:

them, return them to the Bronze Age.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't know.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, so, you know, Israel has stepped up its attacks in Gaza.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think it sort of sees the writing on the wall and is doing as much as it can.

Jacob Shapiro:

You've also had reports, silly reports, because Israel can't attack

Jacob Shapiro:

Iran without US support, but reports that Israel is considering an attack

Jacob Shapiro:

on Iran because they're worried about some kind of nuclear deal.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then the big news from yesterday that two Israeli diplomats were shot,

Jacob Shapiro:

um, outside an event at Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, dc Uh, the guy

Jacob Shapiro:

who they suspect did it as he was being hauled off into custody shouting free

Jacob Shapiro:

Palestine at, at the top of his lungs.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I mean, I, we can cook on this in a bunch of different ways.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm gonna risk getting canceled here and just point this out.

Jacob Shapiro:

And here's where I'll bathe myself in indifference.

Jacob Shapiro:

And here's where I'm, uh, honestly, probably more cynical about

Jacob Shapiro:

this issue than probably anybody else you're gonna listen to.

Jacob Shapiro:

Because there were so many, um, social media posts, official statements

Jacob Shapiro:

about we condemn antisemitism, this is horrible, et cetera, et cetera.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, but these, first of all, this was an assassination of

Jacob Shapiro:

Israeli diplomats on US soil.

Jacob Shapiro:

So it wasn't, they weren't targeted because they were Jews.

Jacob Shapiro:

They were targeted because they were representing the Israeli government.

Jacob Shapiro:

That doesn't make it okay, but there's this line between antisemitism and

Jacob Shapiro:

anti-Zionism that always gets blurred.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and I think it's just, first of all, worth pointing that out.

Jacob Shapiro:

So if you're condemning the assault on these two people,

Jacob Shapiro:

what you're actually condemning is somebody going after Zionism.

Jacob Shapiro:

Not Jews and a lot of the people who are criticizing the antisemitism, it's

Jacob Shapiro:

o it's safe to criticize antisemitism, but it's not safe to, um, criticize

Jacob Shapiro:

anti-Zionism because Zionism, they're, that's the genocidal maniacs, the

Jacob Shapiro:

Zionists need to be destroyed, but of course, don't kill the Jews.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's like, Hey, you, you say this stuff long enough about one thing,

Jacob Shapiro:

they're gonna do the other thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't know if that was very articulate, but that that's 0.1.

Jacob Shapiro:

And the second thing I just want to say here is that no matter how

Jacob Shapiro:

morally reprehensible you think, what Israel's actions and Gaza or how

Jacob Shapiro:

morally reprehensible, reprehensible, you think Israel's actions and Gaza.

Jacob Shapiro:

Are, and I happen to think they are morally gross.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't think you can argue any other way, like the extent to which we're here

Jacob Shapiro:

now, like it's morally reprehensible.

Jacob Shapiro:

Even if you bathe yourself in a difference, like on an objective

Jacob Shapiro:

level, um, every time something like this happens, even the people who

Jacob Shapiro:

would support criticism of the Israeli government, um, on the insider,

Jacob Shapiro:

like, well, that could have been me.

Jacob Shapiro:

And so like the strategic logic for having a safe homeland for

Jacob Shapiro:

Jews, uh, makes a lot of sense.

Jacob Shapiro:

And we have to look the other way because if we don't, like, they're just, they're

Jacob Shapiro:

just gonna try and kill us all again.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and so it, it excu, it excuses all manner of sins.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think I, I'm, I'm not saying that it does excuse the sins, I'm just

Jacob Shapiro:

saying that it, like, it creates this dissonance from the exact people you need.

Jacob Shapiro:

You need their minds to change.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like they're also getting attacked in this different vector and so

Jacob Shapiro:

they're gonna look the other way and continue doing what they're doing

Jacob Shapiro:

because they have post-traumatic stress disorder of their own.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, I dunno, there's a lot in there that could get me canceled.

Jacob Shapiro:

But, uh, take it any direction you want.

Marko Papic:

I am not gonna take it in any direction.

Marko Papic:

You're not.

Marko Papic:

Okay, cool.

Marko Papic:

No, I think this is one of those where you have to cook yourself.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I think you get a pass.

Marko Papic:

I'm

Jacob Shapiro:

cooking myself here.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't know why I'm, I'm suggesting something.

Jacob Shapiro:

I just, there was something that really bothered me about this reflexive,

Jacob Shapiro:

oh, we condemn antisemitism and it's like, okay, like bullshit.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like nobody condemns antisemitism.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I dunno.

Jacob Shapiro:

It just bothered.

Marko Papic:

Well, no, I think, I think what you're saying is that,

Marko Papic:

uh, you can't actually, I think what you're saying is that you

Marko Papic:

cannot just create these platitudes.

Marko Papic:

About condemning antisemitism.

Marko Papic:

If you then don't accept at least some level of Zionism,

Marko Papic:

you know, let's say, you know what I mean?

Marko Papic:

If, if, if antisemitism is like from zero to a 10, and if we all

Marko Papic:

agree, then only zero is acceptable.

Marko Papic:

Only zero antisemitism is acceptable on planet Earth.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

You can't be like, oh, well I'm a two outta 10 antisemite.

Marko Papic:

Well, that's two outta 10 too many.

Marko Papic:

You know, like, so if only zero is acceptable, then if there's a zero to a

Marko Papic:

10 on Zionism, you, you have to accept some Zionism because Zionism, which is

Marko Papic:

a very loaded term today, but really it was just in my very sort of bizarre

Marko Papic:

nihilist interpretation of what Zionism is, is it's basically 19th century I.

Marko Papic:

European style nation state movement.

Marko Papic:

In other words, Jewish, it's Jewish

Jacob Shapiro:

nationalism.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's the only nationalist movement in the world that has a different word for it.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's like, okay, French nationalism fine, but Jewish nationalism.

Jacob Shapiro:

Oh, but that's Zionism.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's poisonous.

Marko Papic:

I would even say nationalism.

Marko Papic:

The word nationalism is now also been denigrated in many ways.

Marko Papic:

But in the 19th century, like Jews are sitting in Vienna, they're sitting in

Marko Papic:

Minsk, they're sitting in Thessaloniki, they're sitting in all these, uh,

Marko Papic:

cities in Europe, and they're looking at Italians creating a country out

Marko Papic:

of something that's never existed.

Marko Papic:

Right.

Marko Papic:

Right.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

I mean, if you know Italian history, what Gary BDI did is he put

Marko Papic:

together, oh, it looks like a boot.

Marko Papic:

Let's make it into Italy, like it was Rome 2000 years ago.

Marko Papic:

Italy is as much a Zionist entity for Italians.

Marko Papic:

There were people in the boot that didn't speak Italian, for God's sakes, France.

Marko Papic:

What France did.

Marko Papic:

We today speak I de France French because it's completely destroyed different

Marko Papic:

linguistic dialects, including some that were more like Catalan in the South.

Marko Papic:

So the Jews are sitting in Europe throughout the 19th century looking at

Marko Papic:

what's going on around them while they're being persecuted every day for being Jews.

Marko Papic:

Right?

Marko Papic:

I mean, this isn't like a a, a new phenomenon, obviously.

Marko Papic:

It's not a Holocaust phenomenon, it's a predates it massively.

Marko Papic:

So if you're Jewish and you're sitting, you're looking at Germans creating

Marko Papic:

Germany out of nothing, you look at Italians creating Italy out of nothing,

Marko Papic:

and you look at the French, okay?

Marko Papic:

It's not fair to say the France didn't exist.

Marko Papic:

It did, but it became much more dominated by El de France, French.

Marko Papic:

I think Zionism comes from that history, and so it's simply doing what Europeans

Marko Papic:

did in Europe, but for Jews somewhere, you know, anywhere it ended up being

Marko Papic:

Palestine, of course, we're dealing with the consequences of that decision.

Marko Papic:

But the point I think is that

Marko Papic:

I understand your point, that's all I'm saying.

Marko Papic:

Like you cannot, no.

Marko Papic:

And you cannot just say, well, I'm not, I'm a I, I I delore

Marko Papic:

anti-Semitism, but you know, Zionism in the Jewish state are evil.

Marko Papic:

And the point is, well, actually one solves for the other.

Marko Papic:

You know?

Marko Papic:

And I, and I get that.

Marko Papic:

The question I have is, is there a pursuit of Zionism that actually

Marko Papic:

is going to create stability over the next hundred years for.

Marko Papic:

Israelis.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, probably not.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I appreciate your use of the dials.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause what I said was probably a little bit too flippant.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm sure the earlier stuff will get aggregated, but like, think of it this

Jacob Shapiro:

way, if you're a 10 on anti-Zionism, what that means is you think the Jews

Jacob Shapiro:

should not be allowed to have a state.

Jacob Shapiro:

Exactly.

Jacob Shapiro:

And that is anti-Semitism.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

That means the destruction of the Jews full stop.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now that's one position you can be critical of Zionism and say.

Jacob Shapiro:

Jews, like everybody else in the world, should not commit war crimes.

Jacob Shapiro:

And if they do, they'll be punished like everybody else in the world.

Jacob Shapiro:

But as a people, they do have a right to a state as legally

Jacob Shapiro:

defined, blah, blah, blah.

Jacob Shapiro:

And the thing that I'm going after here is I, I'm raise my hand.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm in print criticizing Zionism, like a self-critical like person

Jacob Shapiro:

who has like spent a lot of his time thinking about these things.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, well, like I said, what Israel's doing, God were reprehensible.

Jacob Shapiro:

But the thing that bothers me is the people who were saying, I hate

Jacob Shapiro:

antisemitism, but I know I have the receipts to say, okay, but you

Jacob Shapiro:

are also saying there should be no Jewish state, that it should be

Jacob Shapiro:

Palestine from the river to the sea.

Jacob Shapiro:

And that like, that, like you condemning antisemitism.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, I'm not, like, that's what gets me.

Jacob Shapiro:

So no,

Marko Papic:

I, I think that's perfectly fair.

Marko Papic:

I mean, and by the way, I do think it's anti-Semitic to say that

Marko Papic:

Israel should not exist, obviously.

Marko Papic:

Would it not be anti Italian?

Marko Papic:

Would it not be discriminatory towards Italians as an ethnic group?

Marko Papic:

If you said that Italy should not exist, we should go back to, you know, uh, the

Marko Papic:

papal states, as you and I actually kind of inferred earlier in this podcast,

Marko Papic:

but like, you know, like Italy should be split up into Kingdom of Sicily and

Marko Papic:

the Papal states and you know, like Venice should be its own city state.

Marko Papic:

Like that would be, I think, antit Italian.

Marko Papic:

So I think it's interesting because, you know, what I think confuses a lot

Marko Papic:

of people is that many people think that being Jewish is about a religion, you

Marko Papic:

know, and obviously I'm, I'm walking on eggshells heels because I'm not

Marko Papic:

Jewish, but I think that there is a, um, pretty deep historical ethnolinguistic

Marko Papic:

component to a Jewish identity.

Marko Papic:

In other words, you do not have to be observant Jew to be Jewish.

Marko Papic:

In particularly, in particularly because you know, when shit hits

Marko Papic:

the fan in history, when they come to get you, they don't ask you

Marko Papic:

if you can recite from the Torah.

Marko Papic:

You know what I mean?

Marko Papic:

You know what I mean?

Jacob Shapiro:

Right.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, and this goes back to the power index and why I'm so pessimistic about

Jacob Shapiro:

Israel on the power index, because if you look back at the history of Jewish

Jacob Shapiro:

polities in the Middle East, like getting away from the, the politics

Jacob Shapiro:

and ideology, now there's a reason there haven't been that many of them.

Jacob Shapiro:

And that's because this geography is hard to control.

Jacob Shapiro:

And it's also because, uh, Jews are all like, are their own worst enemies.

Jacob Shapiro:

They're always at each other's throats.

Jacob Shapiro:

There's always different factions who hate each other and won't listen to each other.

Jacob Shapiro:

And usually they start fighting each other, and then the Romans or the

Jacob Shapiro:

Persians or the Babylonians or the Ottomans come in and sweep them up

Jacob Shapiro:

because they can't have a unified front.

Jacob Shapiro:

Hmm.

Jacob Shapiro:

And the reason I'm so pessimistic about Israel over the next 30 years is that

Jacob Shapiro:

you, you're seeing that internally in Israeli politics right now where you've

Jacob Shapiro:

got the religious, um, demographics or increasing the secular Jews.

Jacob Shapiro:

Are kind of dying out.

Jacob Shapiro:

There's an apathy on the, like the left hasn't been able to meaningfully

Jacob Shapiro:

challenge for, you know, um, the Israeli government in decades basically died with

Jacob Shapiro:

the end of the, the peace process before.

Jacob Shapiro:

There is such a large Arab population now that nobody wants to

Jacob Shapiro:

work with that it basically means you're gonna get center, right?

Jacob Shapiro:

Governments or the left is gonna have to work with the Arabs.

Jacob Shapiro:

And for as enlightened as the left is, it really won't work with the Arabs.

Jacob Shapiro:

It doesn't want to.

Jacob Shapiro:

So it's just like this, uh, the, the way that Israeli demographics look going

Jacob Shapiro:

forward, especially if you're gonna add, if you're gonna conquer Gaza and you're

Jacob Shapiro:

gonna conquer the West Bank too, which is the path that Israel is on right now.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, it just leads to the sense where Israeli society itself is not

Jacob Shapiro:

gonna be able to defend from the external threats that are coming.

Jacob Shapiro:

And that's always been the end of Jewish independence.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, see that's an interesting

Marko Papic:

one.

Marko Papic:

So in other words, we both agree that it should be definitely zero on

Marko Papic:

the zero to tens antisemitism line.

Marko Papic:

That's a fact.

Marko Papic:

Um, but what you're saying is that on the, is existence of Israeli state.

Marko Papic:

You also, like, you have to be zero on anti, uh, Zionism

Marko Papic:

to be zero on antisemitism.

Marko Papic:

But there is some cri criticism of where is this enough.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

If I, if I listen to you as an external, non-Jewish observer, an

Marko Papic:

interpreter here, I would say that you're seeing, like, look, the risk here

Marko Papic:

is that Israel in pursuit of security basically chews up too much territory

Marko Papic:

and he can't digest it at some point.

Marko Papic:

And so there is a point where maybe this is enough.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

Is that, I mean, and, and I, and I see what's going on in Gaza and like

Marko Papic:

that piece of land, I mean, it has no real benefit at all to Israel.

Marko Papic:

I mean, you know, like, I mean it's, it's, it's truly, it has

Marko Papic:

absolutely no geographical benefit.

Marko Papic:

I mean it's,

Jacob Shapiro:

or to Egypt or to anyone else.

Jacob Shapiro:

There's a reason nobody wants it.

Jacob Shapiro:

Nobody.

Jacob Shapiro:

The only reason Israel's doing this is because nobody wants it.

Marko Papic:

Right.

Marko Papic:

And, and then the other, the problem is the West Bank.

Marko Papic:

You know, Jacob?

Marko Papic:

Yes.

Marko Papic:

I think the problem is the West Bank because, uh, history, and, and

Marko Papic:

by this I mean biblical history, you know, it's like very long.

Marko Papic:

And those are two kingdoms that Israel did control.

Marko Papic:

Judea and some, what was the other one

Jacob Shapiro:

I forgot, but we,

Marko Papic:

Samaria, which, which one?

Marko Papic:

Jude and

Jacob Shapiro:

Sam.

Jacob Shapiro:

Judea and Samaria.

Marko Papic:

Judea and Samaria.

Marko Papic:

So like, my point is, it's like, you know, if that is the long-term goal I do, I do

Marko Papic:

worry that that extension is problematic.

Marko Papic:

And it's problematic because it would destabilize the, as we

Marko Papic:

discussed in the last PO podcast.

Marko Papic:

What I fear is that the eastern border of Israel has been quite pacified.

Marko Papic:

Jordan is an ally, and I think that anything that disrupts Jordanian

Marko Papic:

stability would be a problem.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

And by the way, on, on your, on your dials, like Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

So zero on anti-Semitism.

Jacob Shapiro:

I would be willing to grant, you can be up to a nine on anti-Zionism

Jacob Shapiro:

and still not be anti-Semitic.

Jacob Shapiro:

But if you're a 10 on anti-Zionism, I hate to break it to you're anti-Semitic.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like that, that's the point.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm, that, that's the point.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm talking.

Jacob Shapiro:

What is that?

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I'm willing to, I'm willing to grant it.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm talking about the tens.

Jacob Shapiro:

The tens are, I see some tens out there who are saying

Jacob Shapiro:

anti-Semitism is deplorable.

Jacob Shapiro:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

Just, just to be clear, so what triggered you and the reason

Marko Papic:

we're having this nice session, and we should have it, I, I'll have

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

Thank, thank you for the therapy session.

Marko Papic:

No, that's, but what triggered you was that after the

Marko Papic:

assassination of two Israeli uh, diplomats in Washington DC you saw

Marko Papic:

basically in the public domain.

Marko Papic:

In social media and in the public people who say that Israel should

Marko Papic:

not exist, saying that they deplored the act because it was anti-Semitic.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, no, that's fair.

Marko Papic:

I think, uh, I don't know if you can be nine outta 10, you know,

Marko Papic:

because that sounds to me like what Tel Aviv, a city state.

Marko Papic:

I mean,

Jacob Shapiro:

all, all you have to do is say the Jews have

Jacob Shapiro:

a right to a state like that.

Jacob Shapiro:

You, you have to at least get to there.

Jacob Shapiro:

If you can't get to there like you

Marko Papic:

should, you are anti,

Marko Papic:

I think that's, that's.

Marko Papic:

And I think that's, but, and yet not too many people.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

All right.

Jacob Shapiro:

Let's, let's hit one more hot button issue in the nine minutes that we have left.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, I dunno if we can get, uh, oo, to put this in the, to splice in the

Jacob Shapiro:

conversation that, uh, south African President Cy Phos had with Donald Trump

Jacob Shapiro:

and the incredible back and forth about, he's trying to get planes from everybody.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now, Marco, it's gutter's not good enough.

Jacob Shapiro:

He is asking the South Africans for a, for a plane.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, but this has been something that's sort of been in the background

Jacob Shapiro:

with the Trump administration since the very beginning.

Jacob Shapiro:

And it's continuing, even without Elon doing the whispering in Trump's ear.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, think about this executive order from, uh, February 7th,

Jacob Shapiro:

where the United States decided it was policy, uh, to not, uh.

Jacob Shapiro:

To not provide aid or assistance to South Africa and to promote the

Jacob Shapiro:

resettlement of Africana refugees escaping government-sponsored

Jacob Shapiro:

race-based discrimination.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, this escalated because in this meeting with Rama in the Oval Office, um, he

Jacob Shapiro:

basically was talking about, you know, genocide against whites in South Africa

Jacob Shapiro:

and putting this ambushing serial, Rama foso with this, um, he showed him a video

Jacob Shapiro:

montage that was supposed to prove this.

Jacob Shapiro:

And not only did, did did he do that?

Jacob Shapiro:

If you go to the White House, the White House has, has a release

Jacob Shapiro:

entitled President Trump is right about what's happening in South Africa.

Jacob Shapiro:

And like, here's the text.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm literally reading from the White House today.

Jacob Shapiro:

President Trump showed the world the shocking treatment of white farmers

Jacob Shapiro:

in South Africa, including with a video montage that highlighted the

Jacob Shapiro:

discrimination and violence targeted at the innocent minority victims and

Jacob Shapiro:

quoting some reputable newspapers, but also a lot of, uh, daily male

Jacob Shapiro:

and Breitbart and some other things.

Jacob Shapiro:

Apology New York Sun.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like apologies if you think these things are real.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um.

Jacob Shapiro:

We put South Africa on our list, like there is this weird back and forth with

Jacob Shapiro:

the United States and South Africa.

Jacob Shapiro:

Anything you want to add here on this?

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause it is pretty strange.

Marko Papic:

Well, I think both sides are being disingenuous here.

Marko Papic:

First of all, uh, you know, I'm not Jewish, but if I were, I'll be extremely

Marko Papic:

angry at the wanton use of the term genocide over the past 35 years.

Marko Papic:

You know, it's just become like everybody's being genocide

Marko Papic:

and left, right and center.

Marko Papic:

So yes, there is no genocide of whites in South Africa.

Marko Papic:

Please come on.

Marko Papic:

At the same time,

Marko Papic:

just because there's no genocide doesn't mean that stuff that's going on is okay.

Marko Papic:

And I think that was the point that, um, actually one of the golfers, I

Marko Papic:

don't follow golf, they never will.

Marko Papic:

Sorry, I, I grew up in the third world.

Marko Papic:

We use golf clubs for other things.

Marko Papic:

So I don't golf, but there was Ernie else who I of course know.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

The other gentleman did say like, Hey, my brother has a farm.

Marko Papic:

And yeah, he's been threatened, you know, by like criminals.

Marko Papic:

So it's not that great.

Marko Papic:

And so that's the, that's the thing.

Marko Papic:

We're like, yeah, I do think South Africa should do better.

Marko Papic:

Like, sorry, like, yeah.

Marko Papic:

You can't have, I know that this went to the Supreme Court of South

Marko Papic:

Africa, and, uh, the leader of the economic, uh, freedom Fighters, uh,

Marko Papic:

Malema was, you know, basically, look, it's, it's a free country.

Marko Papic:

It's a democracy, this freedom of speech.

Marko Papic:

He can sing whatever songs he wants.

Marko Papic:

And Supreme Court of South Africa basically said something like this,

Marko Papic:

this song where, you know, there's a line shoot the boar, kill the farmer.

Marko Papic:

Uh, the Supreme Court basically said like, look, it's a protest song.

Marko Papic:

Nobody actually means that in today's context, you know?

Marko Papic:

And.

Marko Papic:

I get that.

Marko Papic:

I kind of, I understand that, um, given the context and all that,

Marko Papic:

but there is still a security risk to some of these people.

Marko Papic:

And so I don't see what's wrong with the United States of America, putting pressure

Marko Papic:

on a country to make sure that it's minority is, you know, treated fairly.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Um, I hear you.

Marko Papic:

And that minority was complicit in appetite.

Marko Papic:

Like Yeah.

Marko Papic:

That you're like, shit, that, that sucks.

Marko Papic:

That's, yeah.

Marko Papic:

But fair.

Marko Papic:

You,

Jacob Shapiro:

you know what though?

Jacob Shapiro:

It, it goes back to what we talked about last week, which was last week.

Jacob Shapiro:

You were talking about how wasn't it so, um.

Jacob Shapiro:

So amazing is the wrong word, but that it was so, um, unprecedented that here

Jacob Shapiro:

was a US president who was saying, it's not my job to sit in judgment.

Jacob Shapiro:

It is my job to defend the interest of the United States and sitting

Jacob Shapiro:

in judgment over an issue that you obviously know nothing about and

Jacob Shapiro:

which is not strategically significant with a government and a country that

Jacob Shapiro:

is very geopolitically important.

Jacob Shapiro:

If you're thinking about the future of geopolitics in a multipolar world and

Jacob Shapiro:

you're worried about Chinese influence in Africa and all these other things,

Jacob Shapiro:

it would be really good to have at least South Africa neutral, if not on your side.

Jacob Shapiro:

Just look at a map like South Korea, excuse me, South Korea.

Jacob Shapiro:

South Africa, incredibly important strategic real estate, especially if

Jacob Shapiro:

Africa, in terms of growth and all these other things is gonna be important,

Marko Papic:

especially the Houthis keep, uh, shutting down.

Marko Papic:

Oh, it's a good idea to

Jacob Shapiro:

bring their leader in and lecture him about these things, and then

Jacob Shapiro:

also ask for a plane and everything else.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, now Osa I thought he was, um, he was all, I thought he should, he, he was very,

Jacob Shapiro:

uh, statesmanlike and diplomatic, but I was waiting for him to go zelensky on it.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause, you know, I think that Zelensky actually did good for himself.

Jacob Shapiro:

And, and how he pushed back, I was waiting for him to do it.

Jacob Shapiro:

He didn't do that.

Jacob Shapiro:

And that's because he was thinking strategically.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think he realizes that it's important for South Africa to have

Jacob Shapiro:

good relations with the United States.

Jacob Shapiro:

But, you know, we're a week removed from President Trump telling everyone

Jacob Shapiro:

in Riyadh, I don't sit in judgment.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's for God.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then here we are literally sitting in judgment in the Oval Office.

Marko Papic:

I, I, I love nothing more than when I'm pawned P-W-N-E-D by my own.

Marko Papic:

So I, I slow clap Jacob.

Marko Papic:

Like, thank you for, uh, slapping me with my own, uh, framework.

Marko Papic:

I think you're correct.

Marko Papic:

I think, uh, it was petty.

Marko Papic:

It was, um.

Marko Papic:

It was petty and it was, um, you know, um, unstrategic, he should have taken

Marko Papic:

his own advice from the last week.

Marko Papic:

You're correct.

Marko Papic:

But I would say that for South African future, you know, for South Africa for

Marko Papic:

their own goods, they should not be, you know, like eliminating a whole minority

Marko Papic:

of people or making it uncomfortable.

Marko Papic:

I mean, the whole point of South Africa is it's the Rebo Haitian.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

You know, and if you start with the African, uh, farmers,

Marko Papic:

by the way, you know, there's a short path from that to Ed.

Marko Papic:

Mean pushing out the South Asians out of Uganda, like South Africa

Marko Papic:

is not just white and black.

Marko Papic:

There's also South Asians and also an ethnic group that they term and they

Marko Papic:

use the term colored for, which is a various mixes usually in the south, in

Marko Papic:

the Cape Province, uh, Western Cape.

Marko Papic:

Uh, the point is there are a lot of different groups

Marko Papic:

in South Africa other than.

Marko Papic:

Blacks and White African and all of those groups contribute to the Rainbow Nation.

Marko Papic:

I mean, that was Mandela's like great contribution to humanity

Marko Papic:

that he, you know, engendered that.

Marko Papic:

And so I a hundred percent agree with you.

Marko Papic:

I stand corrected.

Marko Papic:

Thank you.

Marko Papic:

President Trump did focus on strategic imperatives of the US at the same time.

Marko Papic:

He was kind of giving South Africa a helping hand, quite frankly, because they

Marko Papic:

need to solve this and they need to make sure that, um, you know, like they're,

Marko Papic:

they don't go down the path of other African countries that did turn quite

Marko Papic:

racist towards their well minorities.

Jacob Shapiro:

They haven't so far.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's to South Africa's credit that it basically like, yes, there are

Jacob Shapiro:

tons of problems in South Africa.

Jacob Shapiro:

There's violence, there's the inheritance of apartheid, all the

Jacob Shapiro:

different wealth inequalities, education, inequalities, et cetera.

Jacob Shapiro:

But they haven't had a genocide.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, they haven't had a, they haven't had a civil war like relative to

Jacob Shapiro:

the other countries around them.

Jacob Shapiro:

And what they went through, you would've expected much worse by now.

Jacob Shapiro:

And maybe it's still coming.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like this story has not been written yet.

Jacob Shapiro:

But the thing that Mandela did was truth and reconciliation.

Jacob Shapiro:

Let's all say what we did and then let's figure out a way forward.

Jacob Shapiro:

And, uh, OSA even in the conversation, said to Trump,

Jacob Shapiro:

Hey, we need to talk about this.

Jacob Shapiro:

Mandela said this, like this is where we need to go.

Jacob Shapiro:

And that was a moment where the United States could have said, okay.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, there are these problems live by your own creed.

Jacob Shapiro:

Let's do truth and reconciliation again because you guys need an update to that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Because if not, you're headed in a bad direction.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well that's, you know, but that's not what was happening.

Marko Papic:

No, no.

Marko Papic:

But Jacob, but Jacob, this is where I, I stand with the criticism of Julius

Marko Papic:

Malama because he is going back.

Marko Papic:

I'm not sure that he feels the truth.

Marko Papic:

Reconciliation was enough.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

And this is where, where I'm zagging from you is that what I saw in the

Marko Papic:

media over the last couple of days is just every single liberal, mainstream

Marko Papic:

media, um, you know, outlet, basically saying discredited news about genocide.

Marko Papic:

Yes, that is correct, but I don't care.

Marko Papic:

Genocide is an overused term in truth, it's happened very

Marko Papic:

rarely since the Holocaust.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

And again, if I was Jewish, I would be so much more angrier about the use of the

Marko Papic:

word genocide left, right, and center.

Marko Papic:

Everyone's getting genocide now.

Marko Papic:

Okay, everybody get in line.

Marko Papic:

Get your genocide hat and t-shirt on.

Marko Papic:

No.

Marko Papic:

Just because there is no genocide in South Africa against the whites

Marko Papic:

does not mean that they're not being discriminated now in sort of

Marko Papic:

reverse discrimination in some ways.

Marko Papic:

And I think that that is a mistake there, there is clearly an exodus of

Marko Papic:

white side of South Africa anyways.

Marko Papic:

I mean professionals and so on, that there has been happening for the 20 years.

Marko Papic:

I don't think that's a, that's good for the country.

Marko Papic:

And I do think that Julius Malama should be pushed on again, a a, a little

Marko Papic:

bit leaned against a little bit more.

Marko Papic:

And I think that President Rama did a great job.

Marko Papic:

I agree with you.

Marko Papic:

But there can be both President Trump in the right wing of Fri Connors

Marko Papic:

who are talking about genocide.

Marko Papic:

They can be wrong.

Marko Papic:

Also South Africa needs to do a lot better.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

And when I see the media, everybody in the west indexed on this issue.

Marko Papic:

Well, there's no genocide.

Marko Papic:

It's like, great, you know, like that is not a standard

Marko Papic:

for how minorities are treated.

Marko Papic:

Like, are you being genocided?

Marko Papic:

Uh, I guess not.

Marko Papic:

Okay, well then you're good and we're out of here.

Marko Papic:

You know, like, well,

Jacob Shapiro:

well, I, I just, I, I agree with you a hundred percent.

Jacob Shapiro:

I just, I think it's a missed opportunity for President Trump because I think

Jacob Shapiro:

he could have actually used his position to try and push towards that.

Jacob Shapiro:

But by doing what he did, I actually think he made it almost

Jacob Shapiro:

impossible for Ram OSA to do that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, because now like Ram OSA has to go, go back after having, you know,

Jacob Shapiro:

like all these clips out and it's like, you think that's gonna cause anybody

Jacob Shapiro:

to wanna sit down around a table?

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe I'm over.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't know.

Marko Papic:

I don't know.

Marko Papic:

You know what?

Marko Papic:

I don't know.

Marko Papic:

I don't know.

Marko Papic:

Because look.

Marko Papic:

For a country like South Africa, it does matter what great powers do.

Marko Papic:

Right.

Marko Papic:

And I think that maybe he can go home and be like, Hey, Julius Malema, thanks buddy.

Marko Papic:

You know, like maybe that can be the takeaway from here.

Marko Papic:

It's like, hey, maybe like to down the shoot the board, like, you know,

Marko Papic:

thinking maybe like, you know, if, if naidas are not acceptable, maybe

Marko Papic:

like the celebrating of, uh, ethnic uh, violence is not okay either.

Marko Papic:

So I think, you know, like, again, I think the, the way we're carrying

Marko Papic:

this, first of all, everybody has A-P-T-S-D from Zelensky.

Marko Papic:

And second of all, I think just saying that I can document in

Marko Papic:

many ways how there's no genocide in South Africa or Civil War.

Marko Papic:

It's like, great, but that's just not enough, you know, for South

Marko Papic:

Africa to be a viable state.

Marko Papic:

I just think that they need to.

Marko Papic:

Lean into the Rainbow Nation.

Marko Papic:

And I think that this government, this coalition clearly has done that.

Marko Papic:

So I'm definitely not criticizing anything the government has done.

Marko Papic:

What I'm saying is that there is a security issue, there is discrimination

Marko Papic:

against some people of different color in South Africa, and that's, you know,

Marko Papic:

that's not what the country really was.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Like in the nineties.

Marko Papic:

No,

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I, I hope you're right.

Jacob Shapiro:

I hope, I hope He goes back and he puts pressure on Ma Layman.

Jacob Shapiro:

He, he calls also around and says, does anybody have a 7 47 spare?

Jacob Shapiro:

7 47 to, to spare?

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause uh, we got a guy who wants one.

Jacob Shapiro:

All right.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I gotta guy outta here and I'm sure you do too, Marco,

Jacob Shapiro:

this was a really good episode.

Marko Papic:

I agree.

Marko Papic:

This was a lot of fun, man.

Marko Papic:

Awesome.

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