Episode 17

Postmortem on the Iran-Israel War

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic discuss the aftermath of the Iran-Israel war, analyzing President Trump's controversial claims of obliterating Iran's nuclear program and the broader geopolitical implications. They critique the media's response, evaluate future scenarios for Iran—including regime stability or shifts toward authoritarianism—and express concerns over instability potentially spreading to Iraq. They also review recent developments from the NATO summit, including European commitments to increase defense spending, Trump's relationship with NATO allies, and growing tensions with Asian partners like Japan and South Korea.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:05) - Postmortem on the Iran-Israel War

(02:03) - Debate on the Iran Nuclear Program

(06:35) - Media and Political Reactions

(17:13) - Iran's Domestic Politics and Future Scenarios

(31:27) - The JCPOA and Its Shortcomings

(32:23) - Iran's Influence in Iraq

(36:12) - The Kurdish Opportunity

(37:17) - NATO Summit and Defense Spending

(42:53) - Global Military Spending Insights

(50:02) - Trump's Influence on NATO

(56:02) - Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Transcript
Jacob Shapiro:

All right, uh, the cousins together.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, Marco is joining us off of a big client call.

Jacob Shapiro:

I have a big client call in 50 minutes, so we don't get to luxuriate

Jacob Shapiro:

in our normal hour and a half.

Jacob Shapiro:

We gotta, we gotta give the people what they want in 50 minutes

Jacob Shapiro:

here, Marco, or let's call it 55.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, we wanted to do a postmortem on the Iran Israel War.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, we wanted to talk about how, I mean, the news cycle's already onto

Jacob Shapiro:

the next thing, the crazy things happening at the NATO summit, which

Jacob Shapiro:

there's actually a lot to unpack there.

Jacob Shapiro:

Everything from how the Europeans are treating Donald Trump, uh, versus Japan

Jacob Shapiro:

and South Korea, and some of the things happening on the sidelines, or some of

Jacob Shapiro:

the things not happening on the sidelines.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, where, where do you wanna start?

Jacob Shapiro:

What do you wanna say first?

Jacob Shapiro:

And I, and I'm wearing a tie 'cause I was just on with our

Jacob Shapiro:

friend Emray for his CNBC program.

Jacob Shapiro:

I know you did it, uh, for them.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, what, earlier this week or last week Time has no meaning

Jacob Shapiro:

anymore, so that's why I look nice.

Marko Papic:

Um, yeah, so I, I think, uh, you know, we

Marko Papic:

keep delaying our trade value.

Marko Papic:

I'm, I'm very disappointed about this.

Marko Papic:

We we're, we're so excited to do top 30 political leaders to draft

Marko Papic:

board, uh, but we're gonna have to delay it a little bit more.

Marko Papic:

Uh, obviously I think, uh, we should dedicate this, uh, to the

Marko Papic:

postmortem of what just happened.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, where I would wanna start with first is there's this, uh, big debate

Marko Papic:

and I find this fascinating, Jacob.

Marko Papic:

Um, there's the big debate whether or not the nuclear program was obliterated,

Marko Papic:

you know, and, um, president Trump obviously claimed total obliteration.

Marko Papic:

And then, uh, there was a leaked, there was a leaked report from

Marko Papic:

the Defense Intelligence Agency, which by the way, I mean.

Marko Papic:

That's, I think, a story in of itself.

Marko Papic:

Why is the intelligence community leaking a report that's top secret

Marko Papic:

on their assessment, uh, other than to embarrass the president?

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, or probably for the same reason that there was a decoy group

Jacob Shapiro:

of bombers that went towards the Pacific.

Jacob Shapiro:

And yes, I'm sure that some of it is to embarrass the president.

Jacob Shapiro:

Some of it is also probably, uh, we don't know who is in Pete Hegg,

Jacob Shapiro:

Seth's, uh, WhatsApp groups right now.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, I mean, very real, like non-zero chance you could be getting, you

Jacob Shapiro:

know, information somewhere, you know?

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Fair, fair.

Marko Papic:

Um, so, so look, I mean, but I think it's a fascinating

Marko Papic:

point because this idea that.

Marko Papic:

Um, the Iran nuclear program was set back by mere months, I think

Marko Papic:

is like just patently ludicrous.

Marko Papic:

That is like objectively just impossible.

Marko Papic:

And, uh, I find it hilarious that some democratic members of Congress

Marko Papic:

are latching onto this because their Trump derangement syndrome is so severe

Marko Papic:

that they're actually now becoming.

Marko Papic:

Like war Monering neocons in order to embarrass President Trump.

Marko Papic:

So you've got this guy in California who I don't even know what his name

Marko Papic:

is, he's completely irrelevant.

Marko Papic:

He's from LA area of Ventura County.

Marko Papic:

You can look him up.

Marko Papic:

But he came out and said like, you see, we didn't do enough.

Marko Papic:

It's like, okay, so are you calling for like greater war with Iran?

Marko Papic:

It's like, you know, where, where are we headed?

Marko Papic:

Look where I wanna, where I wanna go with this is, is this.

Marko Papic:

Seeing that the attack on the nuclear program did not a hundred percent

Marko Papic:

destroy the nuclear program is like seeing that the COVID vaccine is

Marko Papic:

not a hundred percent effective.

Marko Papic:

It's like, yes, that's a fact.

Marko Papic:

COVID vaccine is not a hundred percent effective.

Marko Papic:

Like you can still get COVID, you can even still die, but you should

Marko Papic:

still probably take the vaccine.

Marko Papic:

And so the reason I say this is because it's very similar to how like for

Marko Papic:

example, the Joe Biden administration.

Marko Papic:

Was kind of suggesting that the vaccine really is super effective and so was Trump

Marko Papic:

in a way because policymakers are just saying like, look, this crisis is over.

Marko Papic:

This is the solution we got.

Marko Papic:

It's the best one we have just shut up and take the vaccine.

Marko Papic:

Similarly, right now, I can objectively tell you from everything I know about

Marko Papic:

geopolitics, military affairs and like how science works is you cannot a hundred

Marko Papic:

percent obliterate in nuclear program.

Marko Papic:

When Israel did it in 1981 by bombing Alli, Iraq in Iraq, did it

Marko Papic:

obliterate the Iraqi nuclear program?

Marko Papic:

Well, George W. Bush would say otherwise.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, they did both in Iraq and Syria, but that was because

Jacob Shapiro:

they were at a much, much, much, much earlier stage of the process.

Jacob Shapiro:

There was like one,

Marko Papic:

but they didn't, well, they

Jacob Shapiro:

never found evidence of nuclear weapons in Iraq.

Jacob Shapiro:

That was, they didn't find nuclear

Marko Papic:

weapons.

Marko Papic:

But there was a nuclear program, and the reason for this is that a

Marko Papic:

nuclear program is not a building.

Marko Papic:

A nuclear program is a holistic combination of factors including human

Marko Papic:

capital, fixed capital, some tools, some toolboxes, and so saying that

Marko Papic:

the underground chambers of fordo are still intact, it's like number

Marko Papic:

one, there's no electricity to place.

Marko Papic:

It's probably gonna take them months, if not years, to get back into

Marko Papic:

those chambers, and if they move the uranium out of the chambers.

Marko Papic:

This is the part that I just think is so unfair to Trump.

Marko Papic:

They move the uranium because you warn them, the Israeli intelligence knows

Marko Papic:

where the ayatollah goes to the bathroom.

Marko Papic:

If they move the uranium, the enriched uranium out of the underground

Marko Papic:

caverns of photo, it suggests to me that they're now out in the

Marko Papic:

open and we know where they are.

Marko Papic:

Like, you know, like, relax everyone.

Marko Papic:

So yes, it's objectively correct to say that President Trump was being hyperbolic.

Marko Papic:

That's like accusing, you know, accusing Trump of being hyperbolic

Marko Papic:

is like accusing him of being orange.

Marko Papic:

This is just how he is.

Marko Papic:

The reality is that it's destroyed enough and that's a fact.

Marko Papic:

It is destroyed enough.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, I, uh, I, I'm, I'm interested in why you're

Jacob Shapiro:

focused on this point, because total obliteration to me, uh, is the exact

Jacob Shapiro:

same thing as mission accomplished.

Jacob Shapiro:

Any president who pulls off a military operation is going to have to take

Jacob Shapiro:

a victory lap, no matter, like, the job is not to be accurate about

Jacob Shapiro:

what they did, it's to say something happened and it was successful.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think you're right.

Jacob Shapiro:

You know, the Democrats just can't find their way out of a wet paper bag.

Jacob Shapiro:

They had one sharp tool.

Jacob Shapiro:

That they were starting to use it was that, um, congressional measure on halting

Jacob Shapiro:

US involvement based on war powers.

Jacob Shapiro:

And they got a Republican from Kentucky to sign on and sponsor the bill, but he

Jacob Shapiro:

decided since Trump like stopped bombing already, that he didn't want to do it.

Jacob Shapiro:

And so the speaker's not gonna bring it to the floor.

Jacob Shapiro:

And the Republican, uh, from Kentucky, Thomas Massey, his name is not

Jacob Shapiro:

gonna push it forward if, if the Democrats really wanna like play here.

Jacob Shapiro:

The, you're exactly right.

Jacob Shapiro:

The wrong thing to do is to say, ah, nothing happened.

Jacob Shapiro:

The right thing to do is to say, Hey.

Jacob Shapiro:

This started with the Democrats with Truman in the Korean War.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like we are the original sin of it.

Jacob Shapiro:

We have to get Congress back in charge of when US military force is deployed because

Jacob Shapiro:

whether it's President Trump or President Obama or President Bush or President

Jacob Shapiro:

Truman, like we opened up Pandora's Box and Republicans, you need to work with us.

Jacob Shapiro:

To shut Pandora's Box be, and that's Steve Bannon, Tucker Carlson, all of you.

Jacob Shapiro:

We want all of like, yeah, that's free advice there to the Democrats.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's if you want an issue to play on, it's not gonna happen

Jacob Shapiro:

overnight, but like that is the issue.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

So this is, uh, you should be banging

Marko Papic:

on.

Marko Papic:

So Jacob, that's, that's a great point.

Marko Papic:

Like, if you want something that's anti-Trump and that's bipartisan, go

Marko Papic:

join up with a Mago camp that didn't want the attack in the first place.

Marko Papic:

That didn't want to be Israel's tail.

Marko Papic:

That got wagged by Benjamin Netanyahu's.

Marko Papic:

Right dog.

Marko Papic:

That's what, like if you have a problem with this, there's, it's,

Marko Papic:

but it seems like the Democrats just can't quit the NeoCon line.

Marko Papic:

This is like Kamala Harris campaigning with Liz Cheney, which is hilarious to me.

Marko Papic:

Like they just don't understand the country has moved on from this.

Marko Papic:

So the media, and by the way, I got journalists tweeting at me like,

Marko Papic:

well, Trump started it by claiming that it was total obliteration.

Marko Papic:

Oh yeah.

Marko Papic:

That's, that's why you are leaking defense intelligent, uh, agency, uh,

Marko Papic:

reports that, you know, that's why.

Marko Papic:

That's why because of semantics.

Marko Papic:

No, you are just so deranged with the Trump derangement syndrome that you're

Marko Papic:

willing to basically take the stance that he didn't do enough, and therefore

Marko Papic:

we need to go into an endless warfare with Iran over something that clearly has

Marko Papic:

been set back by years, if not decades.

Marko Papic:

So,

Jacob Shapiro:

yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

But would you say.

Jacob Shapiro:

Do you think that it was necessary for the US to bomb Fordo and

Jacob Shapiro:

those other sites to set it back?

Jacob Shapiro:

Because I, I think Israel had already set it back meaningfully.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm not, I'm not sure what else the United States did, and so then

Jacob Shapiro:

like, I want to agree with you and disagree with you at the same time

Jacob Shapiro:

because I think there's a problem.

Jacob Shapiro:

With the media and that there is Trump derangement syndrome, but there's

Jacob Shapiro:

another part here, which is what the Trump administration was pushing.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I'm not saying this pejoratively, it's just an objective fact in multiple

Jacob Shapiro:

administrations of both stripes do this.

Jacob Shapiro:

Whenever they do a military operation, they just do it in a

Jacob Shapiro:

different style to suit their base.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's propaganda.

Jacob Shapiro:

The whole thing of total obl obliteration was propaganda.

Jacob Shapiro:

And it is a journalist job to question propaganda and

Jacob Shapiro:

to try and interrogate truth.

Jacob Shapiro:

And so if the justification for bombing the Iranian nuclear sites was we're

Jacob Shapiro:

going to obliterate the Iranian nuclear program, and then you get the Iranian,

Jacob Shapiro:

uh, you get the propaganda, it is a journalist function to push back

Jacob Shapiro:

against the, the propaganda itself.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and I think that's where Trump gets into trouble because they

Jacob Shapiro:

made it about the nuclear deal.

Jacob Shapiro:

When I. Think what really happened, and we talked about this, was Israel struck

Jacob Shapiro:

Iran, uh, Trump and Fareed Zakaria's point of view, had that fomo, foreign

Jacob Shapiro:

policy, wanted to look tough, didn't wanna slap the Israelis down in public.

Jacob Shapiro:

And so he created this thing and went forward.

Jacob Shapiro:

And so I think you're right that the media's focusing.

Jacob Shapiro:

On the wrong thing in that sense.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I do think there was a journalistic function to say, okay, we get it.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like total obliteration.

Jacob Shapiro:

But that wasn't even the point in the first place.

Jacob Shapiro:

Whoa, there's this relationship with Israel going back and forward.

Jacob Shapiro:

And there was that one reporter who got Trump to say, I dunno if you saw

Jacob Shapiro:

this, uh uh, I'm sure you saw this.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, this was incredible.

Jacob Shapiro:

Where he basically, you know, they asked him if he was mad at the

Jacob Shapiro:

Israelis for violating the ceasefire, and he said, these two countries

Jacob Shapiro:

have been fighting for so long.

Jacob Shapiro:

They don't know what the fuck they're doing.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, exactly.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I, and I honestly wanted to stop it right there and

Jacob Shapiro:

be like, let Trump be Trump.

Jacob Shapiro:

Get rid of all the advisors.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like that's the best foreign policy.

Jacob Shapiro:

Brief agree on Israel, Iran relations.

Jacob Shapiro:

I've heard in years, they don't know what they're doing.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, just like, stop guys, listen.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, like I, and I think all this other stuff around him gets in the way of it.

Marko Papic:

Right.

Marko Papic:

But that's where the criticism of the semantics is idiotic.

Marko Papic:

So, no.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

I think if you're a journalist attacking the total obliteration, you're not, I

Marko Papic:

mean, yeah, sure, you're doing your job like, but I still think you're an idiot.

Marko Papic:

And here's why.

Marko Papic:

Because well be, because who, who cares?

Marko Papic:

Like he didn't like Yes.

Marko Papic:

Was, was it necessary to drop.

Marko Papic:

This massive ordinance in Fordo.

Marko Papic:

I mean on some say yeah.

Marko Papic:

Objectively.

Marko Papic:

Why not?

Marko Papic:

Why not also do that on Passant since Israel already started it.

Marko Papic:

But the real reason that that was done is so that the US gets

Marko Papic:

leverage over both Israel and Iran.

Marko Papic:

So, and that's, and that's something he can't publicly say.

Jacob Shapiro:

Right?

Jacob Shapiro:

And that, and it's the job of the journalist to try and get that, and

Jacob Shapiro:

if not unearth that from him to Right.

Jacob Shapiro:

But they're not doing that else.

Marko Papic:

But they're not doing that.

Marko Papic:

No,

Jacob Shapiro:

I agree.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's why I said agree and disagree.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I don't want to throw out the function of journalists while

Jacob Shapiro:

also criticizing like how the journalists are doing things.

Jacob Shapiro:

And it also like in that very narrow sense like you and I are trying to

Jacob Shapiro:

do what journalists should be doing.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like instead of like some part of our job, instead of analyzing what's going

Jacob Shapiro:

on, we also know have to be truth seekers.

Jacob Shapiro:

It used to be you could rely on journalists to a certain degree to

Jacob Shapiro:

try and ascertain truth, and then you could take a step back and do analysis.

Jacob Shapiro:

But our job has gotten infinitely harder because you can't even trust

Jacob Shapiro:

the truth function that the journalism is sending out because it's, you know,

Jacob Shapiro:

depending on who the reporter is or what outlet they're with, they have

Jacob Shapiro:

all these other different things.

Jacob Shapiro:

I also wanna push back against one.

Jacob Shapiro:

Okay.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, go, go ahead.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, I'll push back on

Marko Papic:

something.

Marko Papic:

No, no, no.

Marko Papic:

Finish.

Marko Papic:

Finish.

Marko Papic:

There.

Jacob Shapiro:

Just the uranium thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't think that's, that's, um, I don't think it's quite that simple.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like uranium doesn't breathe, it doesn't make phone calls.

Jacob Shapiro:

These cylinders can be stored in, uh, my understanding is that they

Jacob Shapiro:

can be stored in things that are basically, you know, 55 pounds roughly.

Jacob Shapiro:

So something that you could theoretically get out and like send

Jacob Shapiro:

it in a bunch of different directions.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and if we don't know where it is or if.

Jacob Shapiro:

If it has been moved all over the place, then you're absolutely right.

Jacob Shapiro:

Not only is does the Iranian nuclear program still live, it

Jacob Shapiro:

can be given to other groups.

Jacob Shapiro:

It can be given to terrorists.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like where, where is it gonna end up?

Jacob Shapiro:

Especially if we have regime change in Iran that is coming.

Jacob Shapiro:

We'll get to that in a second.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like the question of where the uranium is, is one that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Is a little bit disturbing to me, and I'm not sure that it's quite as easy to track

Jacob Shapiro:

down a 55 pound, you know, uh, canister of stuff, especially when you're tracking, I

Jacob Shapiro:

don't know how many of them, is it like 16 of them or something like that, enough for

Jacob Shapiro:

10 nuclear bombs rather than just tracking 180 6-year-old dude who probably can't

Jacob Shapiro:

be too far away from the bathroom for too long without something bad happening.

Marko Papic:

I, I, I, I would push back massively on that look.

Marko Papic:

I mean, Israel has destroyed radar installations that also don't breathe.

Marko Papic:

They've destroyed, um, you know, uh, they, they've known the movements of all the

Marko Papic:

different, um, you know, uh, scientists.

Marko Papic:

I mean, it's just, it's just the reason Fordo is important is

Marko Papic:

because 80 meters underground, you can store something in it.

Marko Papic:

Once you have to pull that out of that, that's where it's out in the open.

Marko Papic:

Do we know where the 50 pound pound, you know, bag of

Marko Papic:

enriched uranium is right now?

Marko Papic:

Do we know like, no, but we will find out.

Marko Papic:

Because one thing we know for a certain is that this country leaks

Marko Papic:

like a sieve, like the Iranian navy, sorry, the Iranian government leaks

Marko Papic:

like, like, like their navy does.

Marko Papic:

So I'm just not too concerned about that because it's a, it's a, it's, it's

Marko Papic:

this idea that it's now disappeared.

Marko Papic:

Well, evils in fordo for a reason, it was protected there.

Marko Papic:

Now it's out in the open.

Marko Papic:

Yes.

Marko Papic:

There's, there's a element of mystery of it.

Marko Papic:

I am personally comfortable with that level of mystery.

Marko Papic:

And what Trump is basically saying by using hyperbole is

Marko Papic:

that he just doesn't want to hear any more arguments about this.

Marko Papic:

And he really is not talking to American audience.

Marko Papic:

He's talking to Israel.

Marko Papic:

He's saying like, listen, stop using your sources in American media to

Marko Papic:

leak government, government, uh, like.

Marko Papic:

Reports so that you can build a case for an endless war that we are

Marko Papic:

supposed to wage on your behalf.

Marko Papic:

That is what's being said, I think with President Trump, and I find it interesting

Marko Papic:

that nobody's picking up on that.

Marko Papic:

There's this like a phony of voices that's saying like, well, no, we need to do more.

Marko Papic:

The same, the same voices in some cases, particularly on the journalist

Marko Papic:

side, who two weeks ago were saying the US should not get involved.

Marko Papic:

And I think that that's, that's what's interesting to me.

Marko Papic:

This flip-flopping on, on how to make Trump look bad.

Marko Papic:

Yes, you're right.

Marko Papic:

That statement in front of the White House is he was boarding the

Marko Papic:

plane sink to both sides, like they didn't know what they're doing.

Marko Papic:

I think that that was a clear signal, you know, and he actually

Marko Papic:

went after Israel really hard.

Marko Papic:

So the reason he bombed Fordo, the reason the United States bombed Fordo is to tell

Marko Papic:

Israel like, okay, you know, we did it.

Marko Papic:

That's it.

Marko Papic:

And we're not gonna, you, you got us into this.

Marko Papic:

Well done Chapo, like well done.

Marko Papic:

But now, now it's game over.

Marko Papic:

And in particular, I think that this is something that we

Marko Papic:

discussed on the podcast as well.

Marko Papic:

The longer this conflict went on, the leverage us has over, uh, Israel

Marko Papic:

increases due to the munitions.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I focused on the offensive munitions, uh, wall Street Journal did a great job.

Marko Papic:

There you go.

Marko Papic:

I, I can also give props to journalists.

Marko Papic:

They did a great job about 10 days ago where they focused on the

Marko Papic:

stockpile of defensive munitions, particularly the aero missiles

Marko Papic:

that intercept ballistic missiles.

Marko Papic:

And so yeah, Israel is running out and so now President Trump's leverage

Marko Papic:

is increasing and he's effectively telling Israel like, okay, that's it.

Marko Papic:

That's why US bond four though, not necessarily because there's

Marko Papic:

a hundred percent effectiveness, but I would again argue that's.

Marko Papic:

That's also a bar.

Marko Papic:

That's, that's just way too high.

Marko Papic:

How are you gonna kill every single human being in Iran who

Marko Papic:

like, has taken a physics course?

Marko Papic:

You know, like, yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, and I, I think that's a pretty high price to pay for what

Jacob Shapiro:

the United States accomplished in Iran.

Jacob Shapiro:

So maybe we, we, I. Put a pin in on this, like, um, maybe I give you my

Jacob Shapiro:

scenarios going forward and you gimme scenarios and then we can turn to nato.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause in some ways, I mean, that's like the new thing and in some ways

Jacob Shapiro:

more important I think globally and especially for our listeners.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I've got three scenarios left on my, on my sheet right now, and

Jacob Shapiro:

they're all about Iranian domestic politics and how Iran responds to

Jacob Shapiro:

what, what just happened to it.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think the most likely IST status quo.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, that the regime survives.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like it showed impressive resilience considering

Jacob Shapiro:

everything that happened to it.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, the mark of a, of a strong regime is actually one that's able

Jacob Shapiro:

to take a punch and then counter punch, and that's what they did.

Jacob Shapiro:

They took a really, really hard punch from the Israelis and then they refocused

Jacob Shapiro:

and they reorganized, and then they started hitting Israel and making it hurt.

Jacob Shapiro:

So that shows me that there's some resilience there that maybe

Jacob Shapiro:

was unappreciated interesting.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think there's also a. A scenario where we go full North Korea.

Jacob Shapiro:

The, the Russians didn't help us, the Chinese didn't help us, nobody helped us.

Jacob Shapiro:

We're just gonna lock it up full on authoritarianism, nuclear weapons as

Jacob Shapiro:

quickly as possible, like we are the hermit kingdom of the Middle East.

Jacob Shapiro:

Or there's the NeoCon wet dream, which is the people rise up.

Jacob Shapiro:

Liberalizing regime.

Jacob Shapiro:

Sure, this will be an ally of the United States going forward, but I,

Jacob Shapiro:

the reason I say it's a high cost to bomb four oh to get the Israelis

Jacob Shapiro:

to stop, and they didn't even stop.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't think the Israelis think that they need to stop.

Jacob Shapiro:

If anything, I think they are convinced that they could do whatever they want.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now once, okay, let's restock the munitions, then we can do this again in 12

Jacob Shapiro:

months because we found the yellow cake.

Jacob Shapiro:

It moved from four oh to this other site, so we're gonna hit it again.

Jacob Shapiro:

I can hear it going already, but in all of my scenarios, Iran sprints

Jacob Shapiro:

to a nuclear weapon quicker.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think that was the cost of this.

Jacob Shapiro:

You've basically just given any future Iranian regime, even one that is liberal

Jacob Shapiro:

and friendly to women and homosexuals, like they will also still want a nuclear

Jacob Shapiro:

weapon because the United States, unlike in Russia, Ukraine, unlike in India,

Jacob Shapiro:

Pakistan, unlike in any of the other conflicts of, of the past couple of

Jacob Shapiro:

years, like this was direct US involvement and a different conversation has to be

Jacob Shapiro:

had in foreign capitals and in analyst circles in those different cities.

Jacob Shapiro:

When you're talking about.

Jacob Shapiro:

Threat of the United States and what the risks are and

Jacob Shapiro:

how to sort of deal with them.

Jacob Shapiro:

So what, what's your takeaway?

Marko Papic:

Yeah, I think broadly, I agree with everything.

Marko Papic:

What I'm, what I'm fascinated by is how this regime is just really

Marko Papic:

non monolithic and hasn't been.

Marko Papic:

Um, you know, in 1980 to 1988, I keep going back to the Irani Rock War.

Marko Papic:

Half a million people died.

Marko Papic:

Everyone's on Saddam's side.

Marko Papic:

I mean, everybody, Soviet Union and America are aligned together against Iran.

Marko Papic:

How does Iran respond after 1988?

Marko Papic:

Do they triple down on isolation?

Marko Papic:

Well, actually no.

Marko Papic:

They, they take their licks, you know, I. Men gendering, sorry.

Marko Papic:

But they take their legs and they, um, proceed with actually a period of

Marko Papic:

opening to the rest of the world in the 1990s, which is weird because they did

Marko Papic:

also support terrorism at the same time.

Marko Papic:

So you have the Buenos Aires attack, um, as an example, which clearly

Marko Papic:

was, um, linked to Iranian regime and Hezbollah, but the presidency

Marko Papic:

of r Sanja was quite moderate.

Marko Papic:

In the nineties, and it led to some opening with the rest of the world.

Marko Papic:

So, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if your first scenario where the regime

Marko Papic:

survives, which is your base case, also includes a domestic internal pivot.

Marko Papic:

I mean, look, if you are a member of the Iranian Elite right now, first of all,

Marko Papic:

you got completely punched in the face.

Marko Papic:

Second of all, you're looking around the region.

Marko Papic:

What are other countries doing?

Marko Papic:

They're, they're taking account of their demographics.

Marko Papic:

Like Saudi Arabia woke up one day and was like, look, I mean 70%

Marko Papic:

of the countries under the age of 35, like, what are we doing here?

Marko Papic:

And so I could see a similar sort of, not North Korea scenario,

Marko Papic:

but rather the opposite.

Marko Papic:

Taking a page out of the 1990s where President r and Johnny was

Marko Papic:

actually quite, you know, like not liberal, but quite reformist.

Marko Papic:

I mean, he actually ended up award the 2009 in opposition, uh, which cost him

Marko Papic:

off obviously his political career.

Jacob Shapiro:

You know?

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

And, and it's a really important point because another historical

Jacob Shapiro:

analogy and all historical analogies are fraught and imperfect.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I think what happened to Egypt over the second half of the 20th century

Jacob Shapiro:

is actually, um, somewhat explanatory.

Jacob Shapiro:

You can explain the opening in the 1990s because of the unique nature

Jacob Shapiro:

of the Islamic, uh, of, of the Iranian revolution, which was they

Jacob Shapiro:

set up parallel political structures.

Jacob Shapiro:

There was the clerics protected by the IRGC.

Jacob Shapiro:

The job of the IRGC is literally to protect the revolution.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now they've, they've expanded into Hezbollah and everything

Jacob Shapiro:

else, but their original purpose was protect the revolution.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then you had, you, you still have quote unquote, democratic elections in

Jacob Shapiro:

Iran and you have, you know, civilian politics and they are not the same thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

And the IRGC was always supposed to be separate from that.

Jacob Shapiro:

And what happened beginning with President Ahmadinejad was that the IRGC.

Jacob Shapiro:

Started metastasizing into all these other arenas of the Iranian state and

Jacob Shapiro:

economy that they weren't supposed to.

Jacob Shapiro:

They were supposed to stay in their box and protect the clerics and

Jacob Shapiro:

protect the virtue of the revolution.

Jacob Shapiro:

Then they slowly started swallowing, um, you know, businesses, the economy.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, even like the external, uh, military functions that were supposed

Jacob Shapiro:

to be with the Iranian military, and you get to the point where the IRGC

Jacob Shapiro:

controls like something to 50 to 60% of the Iranian economy by most

Jacob Shapiro:

eth uh, by most estimates right now.

Jacob Shapiro:

So no matter what happens, unless you kill all the IRGC, which is not possible.

Jacob Shapiro:

The IRGC is gonna be there.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I make the analogy to Egypt because think of what, what started in Egypt with

Jacob Shapiro:

Gamal Abdel Nasser, a coup, a charismatic politician who gives this Arab nationalism

Jacob Shapiro:

and socialism, and he dominates for, you know, 10, 15, 20 years, whatever it was.

Jacob Shapiro:

But when he dies, and you know, eventually Sadad is assassinated

Jacob Shapiro:

because he makes peace with Israel.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's the Egyptian military that takes over.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now, Nasser was a military offer.

Jacob Shapiro:

Officer himself.

Jacob Shapiro:

But when you look at Egypt today, it's a military dictatorship and

Jacob Shapiro:

one that is relatively stable, but the military is calling the shots.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think that's maybe the model here.

Jacob Shapiro:

If you're the IRGC, it's like we've already taken over the economy.

Jacob Shapiro:

Thanks, aog.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now we've got all these other things, the supreme leader's about to die.

Jacob Shapiro:

We'll put in a figurehead.

Jacob Shapiro:

We are gonna dominate, and once we no longer have to watch our backs and

Jacob Shapiro:

we're completely in control of this, we can behave like Egypt does today.

Jacob Shapiro:

We can go out and deal with the world in general like that.

Jacob Shapiro:

That I think is a path forward for them.

Marko Papic:

That's the irony, Jacob, because General Soleimani,

Marko Papic:

who was assassinated by the US was on his way to doing that.

Marko Papic:

I mean, there were rumors he was going to run for presidency.

Marko Papic:

He was extremely popular just in Iran in general.

Marko Papic:

Charismatic guy, very successful in the uh, insurgency against the US and Iraq.

Marko Papic:

Um, and so then he was assassinated and IRGC kinda lost that face, but you're

Marko Papic:

right, uh, there are many others.

Marko Papic:

Uh, there was a mayor of Tehran, I forgot his name, who

Marko Papic:

was also IRGC, uh, commander.

Marko Papic:

In the past life, there are.

Marko Papic:

There are models of this that can, that can definitely

Marko Papic:

emerge as quickly, it doesn't

Jacob Shapiro:

matter who it is, it's an institutional dictatorship.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Rather than this weird bifurcated half democratic half theocratic thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I, I'm sure, I think, I think the Iranian revolution dies with Ale Khomeini

Jacob Shapiro:

and it becomes a, like a military dictatorship, just like any other

Jacob Shapiro:

military dictatorship in the world.

Jacob Shapiro:

If it's the status quo, you know, of course there, there's that NeoCon

Jacob Shapiro:

wet dream lurking in the background.

Jacob Shapiro:

But that was always a hail Mary.

Marko Papic:

And I think their military dictatorship, uh, will be very rational.

Marko Papic:

But to your point, military dictatorship will obviously want to pursue a nuclear

Marko Papic:

weapon given what just happened.

Marko Papic:

And so I do think that the negotiations are going to be very interesting.

Marko Papic:

You know, the United States of America has to now really think

Marko Papic:

about what it can give Iran.

Marko Papic:

In order to avoid them becoming, going for the breakout because the, the thing

Marko Papic:

is, US still does have leverage and the leverage is like, look, we just

Marko Papic:

figure out your S3 hundreds don't work.

Marko Papic:

You have no air defense capabilities.

Marko Papic:

We can mow the grass, you know, every couple of years if we have to, every

Marko Papic:

couple of years that you get a little bit more sophisticated on the nuclear

Marko Papic:

program, we'll just mow it down.

Marko Papic:

So, uh, you know, I do think there can be a grand bargain between the two.

Marko Papic:

This goes back to my point from the last podcast we did, and a moral

Marko Papic:

foreign policy allows the US to make those kind of deals with rivals that

Marko Papic:

it disagrees with in terms of how they treat the population or whatever.

Marko Papic:

And that's where I think it'll, it'll it, it could be a coup of grant proportions

Marko Papic:

for President Trump to really show his chops in negotiation if he can create

Marko Papic:

a grand bargain with Iran that ensures that whatever that regime evolves into.

Marko Papic:

It doesn't produce a nuclear weapon.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's a bar.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm thinking more about that point that you made.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, it is a high bar and I, I've been thinking more about that point you

Jacob Shapiro:

made about the amoral foreign policy and actually maybe President Trump

Jacob Shapiro:

is the right person for it, that that White House thing he did where

Jacob Shapiro:

he was castigating, both of them.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I said, I wanted to isolate him from all his advisors and all the

Jacob Shapiro:

polls and everything else and just be like, if that's your instinct, like.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's the instinct I would like start with, if I was

Jacob Shapiro:

starting the briefing with you.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's the sentence I would start with.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then we would go to like what your goals are.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like really great.

Jacob Shapiro:

So you already know it.

Jacob Shapiro:

You don't need to listen to cousins President Trump.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's fine.

Jacob Shapiro:

But you have to sell that to the American people.

Jacob Shapiro:

And the American people in his base are not a moral, and this very, you saw this

Jacob Shapiro:

in the Ted Cruz interview, you saw this in all of the talk around this going into it.

Jacob Shapiro:

This is not a moral at all.

Jacob Shapiro:

If anything, it is super moral.

Jacob Shapiro:

It is righteous.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's part of of especially in.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, very important part of the base of, without which Trump doesn't have anything.

Jacob Shapiro:

So in the same way that FDR had to sell foreign policy to the American

Jacob Shapiro:

people and wait for a moment, which he got something like, president Trump

Jacob Shapiro:

is constrained by the same things.

Jacob Shapiro:

He cannot just snap his fingers and say, I'm gonna be a moral, and then go to

Jacob Shapiro:

the base who are just like, well, wait, we thought this was part of the soul.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I'm, I'm just saying like he is subject to the same constraints

Jacob Shapiro:

as any American president

Marko Papic:

I know, but I, I think the median voter has moved on.

Marko Papic:

So I think that President Trump is far more in line with where the

Marko Papic:

median voter is than, and, and I think who, who is President Trump's base.

Marko Papic:

Is it the sort of moralistic neocons like Ted Cruz, or is it the MAGA

Marko Papic:

camp, or is it the MAGA camp?

Marko Papic:

You know, which is, which we've seen in some of the commentary over the

Marko Papic:

past several weeks where they're seeing like, why are we in this fight?

Marko Papic:

Why are we letting Israel draw us into their conflict?

Marko Papic:

It's, it's, it's, it's not talking about like, well, Israel's a democracy.

Marko Papic:

It's a friend of ours.

Marko Papic:

It's a li like, I mean, a lot of things that, you know,

Marko Papic:

people may disagree with, but.

Marko Papic:

It's a democracy that's the most liberal regime in the Middle East.

Marko Papic:

Again, caveats here, I'm just saying what Juan might say.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Marko Papic:

And that MAGA camp, I think is more in line with the

Marko Papic:

Bernie Sanders voters, and I think that there is, the median voter in

Marko Papic:

the US is becoming much more aligned with that kind of Machiavellian,

Marko Papic:

real politic foreign policy.

Marko Papic:

And we've seen President Trump abandon parts of his base on

Marko Papic:

different issues before, and this may be one of those as well.

Marko Papic:

So that's.

Marko Papic:

That's what's interesting.

Marko Papic:

But one thing, one thing by the way, I just want to, uh, before

Marko Papic:

we pivot to NATO and other things, there's two things I wanna say.

Marko Papic:

One, one of, uh, one of our listeners, uh, from last podcast criticized, uh,

Marko Papic:

one of the points I made, which is that President Trump was generally speaking,

Marko Papic:

uh, doing right things in with this, with this particular conflict in mind.

Marko Papic:

I think that's proven correct by him going after both Israel and Iran.

Marko Papic:

Clearly he is.

Marko Papic:

Amoral in this, but we should probably use a different term and

Marko Papic:

just say he's being real politic, realist, whatever you wanna call it.

Marko Papic:

But one of our listeners was like, but wait a minute,

Marko Papic:

what about leaving J-C-P-O-A?

Marko Papic:

So, yes, yes, dear, dear listener, you are correct.

Marko Papic:

Uh, that was, that was stupid.

Marko Papic:

I will, well, it, that, that was unnecessary.

Marko Papic:

There was just no need to leave J-C-P-O-A, uh, Iranian in Richmond.

Marko Papic:

Was it zero?

Marko Papic:

Yes, the, the deal would expire anyways.

Marko Papic:

There was a moment where he could have renegotiated, uh,

Marko Papic:

there was a way to renegotiate.

Marko Papic:

I mean, there was a way to impose or so like get better terms, but leaving it

Jacob Shapiro:

and remember that, that that was Trump won where he was

Jacob Shapiro:

surrounded by Bolton and the coterie of neocons who used the Iran issue, both on

Jacob Shapiro:

the campaign trail to get him elected.

Jacob Shapiro:

And they thought they were gonna use Trump as a useful idiot.

Jacob Shapiro:

And in the first term he was.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think he still cared about different norms.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and he doesn't now for better and for worse, but he let himself be sort

Jacob Shapiro:

of taken along the garden path there and he made that promise to voters.

Jacob Shapiro:

And if you're, if you're defending him, like you can also say

Jacob Shapiro:

like, yes, there was a deal.

Jacob Shapiro:

But after there was a deal and, and part of the reason for the deal, by

Jacob Shapiro:

the way, was that ISIS looked like it was taking over the Middle East.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like that was the background context for the United States and Iran looking at each

Jacob Shapiro:

other, being like, maybe we should like.

Jacob Shapiro:

Put this to bed for a second and deal with these crazy people and then we

Jacob Shapiro:

can go back to what we were doing.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Fought together.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause like they saw the bigger threat.

Jacob Shapiro:

Really what we need is ISIS to come back for peace in the Middle

Jacob Shapiro:

East, is what you're saying.

Marko Papic:

No, but, but I, I think, I think ISIS was the basis of

Marko Papic:

a lot of peace in the Middle East.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

I mean, the reason that Saudi Arabia and Iran have Deante is isis Iranian

Marko Papic:

linked Iraqi militant groups.

Marko Papic:

So Iraqi militants who were supported by Iran.

Marko Papic:

Al KZ force was calling in airstrikes from American Warthogs outside of Baghdad

Marko Papic:

to arrest the invasion by al-Baghdadi.

Marko Papic:

So like I, I agree with you.

Marko Papic:

Um, there are far worse things, in other words, in the, in the region.

Marko Papic:

I. Than the Islamic Republic One.

Marko Papic:

One thing I do wanna say, mention your, well,

Jacob Shapiro:

no, and, and just, but well hold on, just on the J-C-P-O-A

Jacob Shapiro:

though, because the, the other thing to think about the Iran nuclear deal

Jacob Shapiro:

is that, first of all, it was supported by two lame duck presidents who didn't

Jacob Shapiro:

have a lot of domestic support for it.

Jacob Shapiro:

So Hassan Rouhani was president in Iran at the time.

Jacob Shapiro:

He did not have a lot of support for it.

Jacob Shapiro:

The IRGC was at his heels.

Jacob Shapiro:

He was trying to push back against the IRGC and that

Jacob Shapiro:

thing that I just talked about.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then you had Obama who was also on his heels with Iran.

Jacob Shapiro:

Also, after the JCPO is signed and after ISIS is dealt with.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, the, the Iranians, yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like you can say that they were, um, they, they followed the letter of the, the law

Jacob Shapiro:

on enrichment, but the deal said nothing about missiles and they started testing

Jacob Shapiro:

ICBMs and all sorts of missile technology immediately, all over the place.

Jacob Shapiro:

And so, like, if the J-C-P-O-A was gonna be effective, there

Jacob Shapiro:

was more to a nuclear program.

Jacob Shapiro:

Program than just the uranium.

Jacob Shapiro:

There's also the missiles, there's also all these other things.

Jacob Shapiro:

So they just kept on going full speed ahead at the other stuff

Jacob Shapiro:

and said, okay, like we will get to the uranium when we get to it.

Jacob Shapiro:

Because as you've noted before, that's old technology.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like they could probably get there like yes, it's hard, but like they

Jacob Shapiro:

have a lot of human capital there.

Jacob Shapiro:

So if you really wanted A-J-C-P-O-A, we would need to go back to the way

Jacob Shapiro:

that treaties used to be, which is.

Jacob Shapiro:

Supported by Congress so that a future president can't just rip it up

Jacob Shapiro:

because he feels in a particular way.

Jacob Shapiro:

So the, the J-C-P-O-A was really, it was a, a weak effort by two weak

Jacob Shapiro:

presidents to try and set their countries on a path away from what we just saw.

Jacob Shapiro:

And because they didn't have the requisite support.

Jacob Shapiro:

It didn't work.

Jacob Shapiro:

And whether it was a failure, like maybe whether they should have done it because

Jacob Shapiro:

it was the best they could have done, or they should have just accepted that it

Jacob Shapiro:

was not realistic and done something else.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't know.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I think that context is, is useful.

Jacob Shapiro:

So like, yes, he shouldn't have pulled out of the J-C-P-O-A, he could have

Jacob Shapiro:

built up on it, but there was no way that the Trump won was going to do that.

Jacob Shapiro:

And also the deal itself was not going to prevent the Iranian

Jacob Shapiro:

nuclear program from going forward.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like that critique is accurate.

Marko Papic:

That's, that's a, that's a really, uh, uh, a well-founded defense.

Marko Papic:

Look, look at how the rules have have flipped.

Marko Papic:

Uh, one, okay, so one thing I wanna say, uh, your scenarios I have no comment on.

Marko Papic:

So they're, they're, they're fine.

Marko Papic:

Uh, the one thing that I think we should think about though is I think

Marko Papic:

it's objectively clear that the Iran regime has weakened, not domestically.

Marko Papic:

So this isn't the point about regime change, but if you are allied with Iran.

Marko Papic:

And there are fewer and fewer of those around Middle East, but if you are

Marko Papic:

allied with Iran, you are worried.

Marko Papic:

And in particular, what I'm worried about, and this is, this can be the last

Marko Papic:

point we, we have for the postmortem.

Marko Papic:

I'm worried about Iraq.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

You know, Iraq has a, um, basically a balance of fire.

Marko Papic:

Uh, it's, it's very important to Iran.

Marko Papic:

It's their buffer against a lot of different, uh, challenges.

Marko Papic:

And currently it's being run by effectively.

Marko Papic:

Tehran linked Iranian, uh, militias, uh, Shia militias and Shia politicians.

Marko Papic:

Now there is different groups of Shia politicians in Iraq.

Marko Papic:

The nationalists who are opposed to Iranian influence

Marko Papic:

effectively gave up in 2021.

Marko Papic:

I thought a civil war was going to happen.

Marko Papic:

And then Muta al sadder the leader of this faction who fought against

Marko Papic:

Americans on behalf of Iran, but then flipped and became pretty ardent.

Marko Papic:

Shia nationalist, opposing Iranian influence in Iraq.

Marko Papic:

He retired at the end of 2021, early 2022.

Marko Papic:

He just retired.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

And that was part of, for Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Good for him.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I think he took a job at booking.

Marko Papic:

Um, he writes Wall Street Journal,

Jacob Shapiro:

uh, the Tda Al Sutter chair for geopolitical analysis

Jacob Shapiro:

that, uh, coming into a think tank.

Jacob Shapiro:

Me, you, uh,

Marko Papic:

militancy and liberalism.

Marko Papic:

At Discourse.

Marko Papic:

Um, so this will obviously

Jacob Shapiro:

be one of the, the fake sponsors that we read in future episodes.

Jacob Shapiro:

I can't wait to write the copy for that.

Marko Papic:

No, but so, uh, yeah, that'd be awesome.

Marko Papic:

Uh, so Mta, Suder just retires and, and I suspect part of the reason is

Marko Papic:

that Saudis pressured both Aldo Suder and the Shia nationalists in Iraq.

Marko Papic:

Look, we have a deal with Iran.

Marko Papic:

We're giving up Iraq to them.

Marko Papic:

God bless him.

Marko Papic:

They can take it.

Marko Papic:

We wanna focus on economic modernization.

Marko Papic:

We're done with this Shia Sunni stuff.

Marko Papic:

You don't care.

Marko Papic:

And so for the past, you know, four years, Iraq has been surprisingly

Marko Papic:

calm, surprisingly stable because that side just gave up.

Marko Papic:

What happens when that side realizes that maybe they don't need Saudi

Marko Papic:

support because Iran is weak now?

Marko Papic:

I think that would be a mistake.

Marko Papic:

Iran may not have the technological capability to fight against Israeli

Marko Papic:

fighter jets, but it does have the technological capability to

Marko Papic:

support an insurgency in Iraq.

Marko Papic:

You know, those are two different things.

Marko Papic:

You're not fighting Israeli fighter jets.

Marko Papic:

You're fighting a war door to door.

Marko Papic:

That's something Iran has done in Iraq for the past 20 years.

Marko Papic:

Nonetheless, this is something that I'm worried about Jacob,

Marko Papic:

like when I think about the postmortem of what just happened.

Marko Papic:

I do think this, uh, ceasefire is highly sustainable.

Marko Papic:

I think President Trump has just smacked both Israel and Iran

Marko Papic:

and said, I don't want to hear.

Marko Papic:

It's like when I get sick of my kids fighting and I show up and

Marko Papic:

the sun is like, she started and I'm like, I don't care if I have to

Marko Papic:

come up back up here one more time.

Marko Papic:

She's like, you're both in, you know, and it's like, Serbian, Serbian.

Marko Papic:

Dad is coming out, not Santa Monica dad.

Marko Papic:

So that's

Jacob Shapiro:

what Trump did.

Jacob Shapiro:

Did, um, I I did, did you see that?

Jacob Shapiro:

Somebody asked Mark Ruddy about, about Trump's language and he literally said

Jacob Shapiro:

sometimes daddy has to use harsh language.

Marko Papic:

No.

Marko Papic:

And, and I mean, it's like, that's exactly, like, that's what Trump I

Marko Papic:

like, I I see myself in him, like with my kids and it's, uh, and

Marko Papic:

so I think this is sustainable.

Marko Papic:

I really think if Israel crosses Trump again, I think it's gonna

Marko Papic:

be very bad for the country.

Marko Papic:

So.

Marko Papic:

That's great, but the negative is Iraq and I really worry about the destabilization

Marko Papic:

of that neighboring country.

Marko Papic:

So that's it.

Marko Papic:

Like that's, that's where I'm at right now with this.

Jacob Shapiro:

All right.

Jacob Shapiro:

And, and, and turn on the TikTok camera for one thing from your, I think this is

Jacob Shapiro:

the first time I've asked for the TikTok camera on, for all of you ardent Kurdish

Jacob Shapiro:

nationalists listening to this podcast.

Jacob Shapiro:

Your time is now and you might not get another chance.

Jacob Shapiro:

So if there's going to be an independent Kurdish state.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like the, the dynamics that Marco was talking about right now,

Jacob Shapiro:

this is where they come from.

Jacob Shapiro:

ISIS used, uh, you know, a vacuum of power in Iraq to do what

Jacob Shapiro:

it did to build dec caliphate.

Jacob Shapiro:

You can use a vacuum of power in these lands to build the

Jacob Shapiro:

thing that you're talking about.

Jacob Shapiro:

So stop squabbling with each other and if this is something that you

Jacob Shapiro:

want, like now would be the moment.

Jacob Shapiro:

And if, if there is a plan in an Israeli drawer that says the next phase of

Jacob Shapiro:

this is not regime change in Iran, but.

Jacob Shapiro:

Supporting the establishment of an independent Kurdish state, which is

Jacob Shapiro:

something the Israelis have toyed with back and forth through their history.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, I will, I will eat my lunch.

Jacob Shapiro:

If, if there is, if this is part of some broader strategic plan for the record,

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't think that's gonna happen.

Jacob Shapiro:

But like, if there was a moment for it to happen, like the, the power vacuum

Jacob Shapiro:

that you're talking about, is it Okay, there's my, I. I think of that as,

Jacob Shapiro:

as out there, but maybe people won't.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, let's turn Marco to our last 20 minutes for the NATO summit.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, I want to read to you what Mark Ruddy sent.

Jacob Shapiro:

Is it Mark Ruddy Rutt?

Jacob Shapiro:

How do you pronounce that?

Jacob Shapiro:

Ru I think it's Ute Ru.

Marko Papic:

Our Dutch, Dutch, uh, like, uh, Dutch fans tell us.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, I'm,

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm, I'm trained in Arabic, not in Dutch.

Jacob Shapiro:

Sorry guys.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, um, I, I, I, I just wanna read what he sent to, to Donald Trump, but

Jacob Shapiro:

Donald Trump posted this on his truth.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, and I also wanna say this sounds like, uh, he went to chat GPT and

Jacob Shapiro:

said, could you create a message for me that makes Donald Trump happy?

Jacob Shapiro:

Mr. President, dear Donald, congratulations and thank you

Jacob Shapiro:

for your decisive action in Iran.

Jacob Shapiro:

That was truly extraordinary and something no one else dared to do.

Jacob Shapiro:

It makes us all safer.

Jacob Shapiro:

You are flying into another big success in The Hague this evening.

Jacob Shapiro:

It was not easy, but we've got them all signed on to 5%.

Jacob Shapiro:

Donald, you have driven us to a really, really important moment for

Jacob Shapiro:

America and Europe and the world.

Jacob Shapiro:

You will achieve something.

Jacob Shapiro:

No American president in decades could get done.

Jacob Shapiro:

Europe is going to pay in a big way as they should, and it will be your win.

Jacob Shapiro:

Safe travels and see you at his Majesty's dinner.

Jacob Shapiro:

We should all be so happy as, as Mark, whatever his name is, to be happy to

Jacob Shapiro:

pay, uh, at the expense of the Americans.

Jacob Shapiro:

There's the European side of this, which we'll get to.

Jacob Shapiro:

I also just wanna say in the background here.

Jacob Shapiro:

Big problems in US Japanese relations, prime Minister Ishiba

Jacob Shapiro:

decided not to attend the summit.

Jacob Shapiro:

Japan also very summarily canceled a two plus two meeting that

Jacob Shapiro:

was supposed to be July 1st.

Jacob Shapiro:

South Korea has attended the summit the last couple of years.

Jacob Shapiro:

They decided not to.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and this is amid reports that the Trump administration is

Jacob Shapiro:

pushing for these Asian countries to spend up to 5% on uh, uh, on.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, military spending as a percent of GDP as well and trying to retrofit

Jacob Shapiro:

NATO into an anti-China alliance.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I think there's an Asia Pacific angle to this.

Jacob Shapiro:

There's the NATO summit to it, and then there's just the sheer comedy of all of

Jacob Shapiro:

these European leaders understanding that kissing, you know, see being seen to kiss

Jacob Shapiro:

the knee is gonna get you what you want.

Jacob Shapiro:

So no more isolating Trump off on stage left.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's like, hey, as much flattery language as we want.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, so take it from there, Marco.

Jacob Shapiro:

Let's do some cooking.

Marko Papic:

Well, first of all, I would say that any man would be so lucky.

Marko Papic:

That their partner looks at them and texts them the way that Mark speaks to Trump.

Marko Papic:

You know, may you live a long and fruitful life full of romance,

Marko Papic:

and that it be filled with little, cute notes of love and affection.

Marko Papic:

The way that Mark texts Donald, that was just dripping like, dear Mr. President.

Marko Papic:

Comma, Donald, you didn't read it.

Marko Papic:

You didn't read it.

Marko Papic:

You're, you're speeding.

Marko Papic:

You're rushing through this pod episode, Jacob.

Marko Papic:

I know we have limited time, but you have to No, no.

Marko Papic:

Due the cadence.

Marko Papic:

You have to say Donald.

Marko Papic:

Pause.

Marko Papic:

It was, uh, it was incredible.

Marko Papic:

And the fact that Trump shared it with everyone was so diabolically mean.

Marko Papic:

You know, it's like, it's like he's acting like.

Marko Papic:

There's some girl that's texting him and he's sharing it with buddies, you

Marko Papic:

know, it's like, Hey, look at this.

Marko Papic:

Look at what, look at what Mark said to me.

Marko Papic:

You know, like, I'm the man.

Marko Papic:

So, yeah, I think flattery is definitely working.

Marko Papic:

Um, did you see that Pakistan nomin nominated, uh, president Trump

Marko Papic:

for the noble, uh, peace prize?

Marko Papic:

Like how did Oh, yeah.

Marko Papic:

I actually, I knew what, did nobody else think of it?

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Like, hey.

Marko Papic:

Hats off to Pakistan.

Marko Papic:

Like what a brilliant move.

Marko Papic:

Did they, they nominated him and made it publicly like we nominated President

Marko Papic:

Trump, you know, like not anyone else.

Marko Papic:

Well, and

Jacob Shapiro:

I believe that, I believe they did it 48 hours before the Israel

Jacob Shapiro:

Iran War started, or, or was it 48 hours before the US decided to bomb Iran?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like really afraid.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm

Marko Papic:

right.

Marko Papic:

President Trump bombed Iran.

Marko Papic:

Not a single person died in the that bombing, and now the conflict is over.

Marko Papic:

Well deserved.

Marko Papic:

I mean, I mean like truth, I mean, look, it's subjective, like, you know, but

Marko Papic:

no, some journalists will say, like, you use the term, it's been obliterated.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

Uh, that's why nobody reads media anymore.

Marko Papic:

Anyways, uh, going back to nato, uh, so your point, uh, yeah, I

Marko Papic:

mean, look, I think that, um.

Marko Papic:

It's interesting because President Trump has now said that it's

Marko Papic:

an extraordinary success, that they're gonna hit this 5% target.

Marko Papic:

Uh, just to explain to everybody, I mean, nobody spends 3% on their

Marko Papic:

defense, like really in the world.

Marko Papic:

Like nobody.

Marko Papic:

The United States of America, I think in 2024 was like 2.7% of its

Marko Papic:

GDPI, I dunno if you'll look it up, but like, oh, yeah, I'll tell you.

Marko Papic:

Look, getting to 3.5% defense spending as percent of your GDP is like.

Marko Papic:

Double what's probably rational for most of these countries, um,

Marko Papic:

their target, uh, of 5% is false.

Marko Papic:

It's not 5%.

Marko Papic:

That's just pr.

Marko Papic:

They're committing to 3.5% in defense, 1.5% on infrastructure, like broadly

Marko Papic:

conceived, where I can see, like, I think some of these countries are gonna justify,

Marko Papic:

like improvements to their healthcare system as as necessary for defense.

Marko Papic:

So.

Marko Papic:

Let's, let's just, and the other thing is that this is by 2035 a year at

Marko Papic:

which, you know, president Trump is highly unlikely to call him out on it.

Marko Papic:

The world will be different.

Marko Papic:

And so this is where I would say, you know, yes, I do expect increase

Marko Papic:

in spending in Europe, absolutely.

Marko Papic:

But they want to increase spending in Europe for other reasons too.

Marko Papic:

They wanna do it for fiscal stimulus reasons.

Marko Papic:

They want to just have their economies grow more.

Marko Papic:

So they're not spending 5% of their GDP on military because nobody is,

Marko Papic:

including the us The US isn't a 3.5%, uh, expenditure on defense.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, well first of all, uh, about the spending on military, did you, did you

Jacob Shapiro:

see what German Chancellor, Friedrich Mers said about, um, the German army?

Jacob Shapiro:

Um,

Marko Papic:

uh, yeah.

Marko Papic:

It was very.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, he was saying like, they're going Korea.

Marko Papic:

He said, quote that he

Jacob Shapiro:

wants Germany to have the strongest conventional

Jacob Shapiro:

army in army in Europe.

Jacob Shapiro:

End quote, because that went so well the first time.

Jacob Shapiro:

Thank you US government for encouraging Germany to return to the notion that it

Jacob Shapiro:

means the la the largest army in Europe.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm just, excuse me.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm so happy about this.

Jacob Shapiro:

Jacob, I am

Marko Papic:

sorry to have to correct your knowledge.

Marko Papic:

Please do.

Marko Papic:

No, I'm

Jacob Shapiro:

happy to be corrected.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, please.

Marko Papic:

Two times.

Marko Papic:

It went great.

Marko Papic:

Two times, not worse.

Marko Papic:

Wait, wait.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I looked up, I looked up military spending as a percent of GDP.

Jacob Shapiro:

There are five countries in the world that spend more than 7%

Jacob Shapiro:

of their GDP on the military.

Jacob Shapiro:

Can you guess?

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

Oh, this is great.

Marko Papic:

Yes.

Marko Papic:

Live.

Marko Papic:

Uh, let's see.

Marko Papic:

North Korea is one.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, although I don't, maybe they're not on here

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause we don't have data probably.

Jacob Shapiro:

So that's probably a good guess, but we just don't have data, so.

Jacob Shapiro:

Huh, interesting.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't, I don't think the North Koreans are saying to cpr, yeah, this is how

Jacob Shapiro:

much we're we're spending on this.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's where I'm getting this data.

Marko Papic:

Do they have data on Ukraine then?

Marko Papic:

Is Ukraine one of them?

Marko Papic:

They do.

Jacob Shapiro:

Okay.

Jacob Shapiro:

So Ukraine is, Ukraine is by far and away, number one at 34.5%

Jacob Shapiro:

is their calculation right now.

Jacob Shapiro:

Second, I guess, what's your next four Russia.

Jacob Shapiro:

Russia is number five, 7.1%.

Jacob Shapiro:

Okay.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, let me see.

Jacob Shapiro:

You've got one in five off the table.

Jacob Shapiro:

Alright.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, is Sudan one of them?

Jacob Shapiro:

No, I'll, I'll give you a hint.

Jacob Shapiro:

The rest of our countries are in the MENA region.

Marko Papic:

Oh, okay.

Jacob Shapiro:

Interesting.

Marko Papic:

Alright.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, two you should get and one I would've never

Jacob Shapiro:

gotten in a bajillion years,

Marko Papic:

Iran in Israel.

Jacob Shapiro:

Israel at 8.8%.

Jacob Shapiro:

Number two, not Iran, but our Saudi friends at 7.3% at number four, and

Jacob Shapiro:

coming in at number three, 8% Algeria.

Marko Papic:

Oh, that's, that would be okay.

Marko Papic:

But that's, you know why those are salaries, benefits.

Jacob Shapiro:

Okay.

Jacob Shapiro:

But still, like it's, it's still 8% by the way.

Marko Papic:

That's an important point.

Marko Papic:

Sorry, go ahead.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, no, no, no, no.

Jacob Shapiro:

You go,

Marko Papic:

no one, one of the things.

Marko Papic:

The easiest way to boost defense spending is just to give people in

Marko Papic:

military higher salaries, and that's in a lot of North African countries

Marko Papic:

like Egypt or Algeria, like Algeria or

Jacob Shapiro:

Fasu.

Jacob Shapiro:

Your favorite on this list at 4.7%.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, like a lot of that is just like, you know,

Marko Papic:

the, it's this sclerotic economy.

Marko Papic:

The highly, highly entrenched interest of the military elite.

Marko Papic:

So I would say that's, uh, that's not like Algeria doesn't really have a military

Marko Papic:

that is equivalent to how much they spend because they don't spend it correctly.

Marko Papic:

But, um, but yeah, the point

Jacob Shapiro:

is the only other country on this list that spends more as a

Jacob Shapiro:

percentage of GDP than the United States.

Jacob Shapiro:

And by the way, Columbia tied with the United States in terms of how

Jacob Shapiro:

much, you know, 3.4%, but, uh, 3.4%.

Jacob Shapiro:

Also US been

Marko Papic:

3.4% of GDP.

Jacob Shapiro:

3.4% according to this data.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, the only country that is not in like North Africa or a place

Jacob Shapiro:

like that, that's, that's high.

Jacob Shapiro:

Up to your point is Poland at 4.2%.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, that's right.

Marko Papic:

Poland does spend the most.

Marko Papic:

So look, the point of this is like 3.5% is a lot.

Marko Papic:

It's a lot.

Marko Papic:

The US is a global, you know, superpower.

Marko Papic:

It spends 3.4% of its GDP on the feds.

Marko Papic:

I'm not sure that Portugal or Italy, it makes really any

Marko Papic:

sense for them to do the same.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, and you probably saw that Spain, uh, has secured an exception

Jacob Shapiro:

so that it doesn't have to do this.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I, I actually put on our, our internal research platform at at work that, you

Jacob Shapiro:

know, is this the end of NATO here?

Jacob Shapiro:

If you're gonna start carving out exceptions for different countries,

Jacob Shapiro:

and if some countries are gonna say are worried about defense, so they'll say

Jacob Shapiro:

nice things to Trump and others won't.

Jacob Shapiro:

And already the Asian economies are like, all right, we flirted with this

Jacob Shapiro:

for a while, but why should we do this?

Jacob Shapiro:

And, and the bombing of Iran, I think, sort of reinforces this.

Marko Papic:

But here's my argument for that.

Marko Papic:

Here's my argument for that.

Marko Papic:

So like, does it make sense for Canada to spend 3.5% of its GDP on military?

Marko Papic:

Why not get Canada to build refining processing centers for critical minerals?

Marko Papic:

So if you're trying to create the Western Alliance.

Marko Papic:

Like, maybe you should start by ensuring that it's not Chinese rare

Marko Papic:

earth minerals in your missiles.

Marko Papic:

Uh, maybe that's, yeah.

Marko Papic:

I don't know.

Marko Papic:

Like I'm just a stupid geopolitical strategist.

Marko Papic:

But if your missile is built with like 70% Chinese components, maybe

Marko Papic:

part of the military spending and security should be that.

Marko Papic:

So like, I'm not sure that it makes sense for every country to just

Marko Papic:

buy more fighter jets and tanks.

Marko Papic:

Instead, you can look at critical advantages that other countries have.

Marko Papic:

Canada, as an example, has a lot of natural resources.

Marko Papic:

It has some processing of these complicated, um, minerals in,

Marko Papic:

in certain parts of Canada.

Marko Papic:

For example, in trail British Columbia, a very interesting piece of Western

Marko Papic:

critical infrastructure, one of the largest lead processing centers that also

Marko Papic:

does some rare earth minerals as well.

Marko Papic:

So like you could, you could contribute to the western.

Marko Papic:

Effort, if you will, without just giving salaries to colonels,

Marko Papic:

you know, to meet the 3.5% line.

Marko Papic:

And I fear that that's what's gonna happen.

Marko Papic:

A lot of countries, like, you know, Belgium, what are they gonna do?

Marko Papic:

Like, Hey, should we buy more fighter jets?

Marko Papic:

Should we buy more tanks?

Marko Papic:

You know, that's all really difficult.

Marko Papic:

It's just like, double everyone's salary and we'll satisfy Donald Trump.

Marko Papic:

You know, that's, that's where I think this is a little bit too, like rote.

Marko Papic:

But, but you're,

Jacob Shapiro:

you're betraying, you're betraying your globalist credentials.

Jacob Shapiro:

You global fillic, uh, apolitical analyst.

Jacob Shapiro:

You, the point here is not to import refined materials from Canada

Jacob Shapiro:

and some of these other places.

Jacob Shapiro:

First of all, Canada's supposed to be part of the United States in this metaphor.

Jacob Shapiro:

The goal here is to make really, really good shiny military equipment

Jacob Shapiro:

and sell it to the rest of the world to balance the trade ballots and make

Jacob Shapiro:

these US military industrial companies.

Jacob Shapiro:

We're gonna do the refining here in the United States too.

Jacob Shapiro:

So.

Jacob Shapiro:

And by the way, in, in your one big beautiful bill that you think is like, uh,

Jacob Shapiro:

is fiscally conservative, like, you know, you know, where we're, uh, increasing

Jacob Shapiro:

spending on the military budget so that we can sell those guns and those weapons

Jacob Shapiro:

to all these other different countries.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, we, we all hope that you enjoyed the four door air show that we put on

Jacob Shapiro:

here to show you some of this wonderful bunker busting technology that we'll

Jacob Shapiro:

be offering to the, it's like Dwight Eisenhower is rolling in his grave.

Marko Papic:

No, I mean, that's so, yes.

Marko Papic:

I mean, a, a lot of this is just, um, yeah, I, I. The media's covering this

Marko Papic:

as if it's a, a fair, complete, it's all these countries have until 2035 to do it.

Marko Papic:

I think that they will do it in many ways, but they will spend it really on defense.

Marko Papic:

Um, and so, you know, it, it's just aligns with political interest of

Marko Papic:

whoever, everyone, president Trump cannot say that he got Europeans

Marko Papic:

to do something nobody else did.

Marko Papic:

Europeans can satisfy their own domestic political logic by boosting their economy.

Marko Papic:

But I don't, you know, I don't expect every one of these countries

Marko Papic:

to spend as much as the us.

Marko Papic:

The other thing though, I would say what is significant, Jacob, is that a lot of

Marko Papic:

people went into the Trump presidency expecting him to withdraw from nato.

Marko Papic:

That he is, you know, like not committed to nato.

Marko Papic:

He now, after this Brussels summit, I mean, the words he's using, he's

Marko Papic:

now like committed to the pod.

Marko Papic:

He's saying this was his achievement.

Marko Papic:

He's put his stamp on it.

Marko Papic:

We know how President Trump's ego works.

Marko Papic:

He's now, you know, as, as far as the next three years of his presidency go and

Marko Papic:

perhaps beyond, like he's now pro nato.

Marko Papic:

And that's, I think the big picture here.

Marko Papic:

Like President Trump is not going to pull out of nato.

Marko Papic:

Um, and that's kinda a sweet spot for Europe where it both has Friedrich Merz

Marko Papic:

out there saying we need to re-arm.

Marko Papic:

And at the same time, it still has that American umbrella because

Marko Papic:

he doesn't seem to have qualified it at this summit unless I'm

Jacob Shapiro:

wrong.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, and another, another betrayal of Trump's principles like America.

Jacob Shapiro:

First, we're not gonna defend the Europeans, but we are gonna defend

Jacob Shapiro:

the Europeans via, via nato, and the Europeans are gonna be strong again.

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe they'll rename it tto, the Trump Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Jacob Shapiro:

That sounds sort of good.

Marko Papic:

If they were smart, they would.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, and this is why I, we, we started with the media and then

Jacob Shapiro:

we start to close in or start to land the plane on the media, which is the

Jacob Shapiro:

way the media is covering this thing, is they're saying, oh, isn't it so gross

Jacob Shapiro:

and odious that all of these European leaders like the, like Mark, are texting

Jacob Shapiro:

Trump and treating him like this king.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's the courtier and everything else.

Jacob Shapiro:

And it's like the story you should be telling is of.

Jacob Shapiro:

Course they're doing that because that's how you get things out of the man.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't think anything has fundamentally changed here.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think the Europeans and all the South Koreans, Japan, they've all woken up

Jacob Shapiro:

and realized that the United States is not reliable or dependable anymore.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now they can't flip the switch and just turn on the United States immediately.

Jacob Shapiro:

They still need things from the United States, and as much as they can get

Jacob Shapiro:

things from the United States, they will.

Jacob Shapiro:

And if you are.

Jacob Shapiro:

Gonna deal with Trump, you either have to be big enough as China to punch back

Jacob Shapiro:

and willing to absorb the pain or like get ready to kiss a lot of Trump butt

Jacob Shapiro:

because that's the way you get to him.

Jacob Shapiro:

You say really, really nice things to him.

Jacob Shapiro:

You flatter him, all these other things.

Jacob Shapiro:

So the way to cover that is these European leaders are actually getting

Jacob Shapiro:

the things they want out of Trump.

Jacob Shapiro:

Things that are against the things that he's campaigned on before, by saying

Jacob Shapiro:

really, really nice things to them.

Jacob Shapiro:

So you may feel that it's odious because you don't wanna say things to leaders

Jacob Shapiro:

like that, but you're a journalist.

Jacob Shapiro:

If you wanna report on what's going on here, report on how the Europeans are

Jacob Shapiro:

playing him and report on how Japan and South Korea are basically being like, I.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, we're not even sending PlayStations.

Jacob Shapiro:

What the f You just bombed Iran.

Jacob Shapiro:

And you want us to show up and do things because you tell us to, you

Jacob Shapiro:

can't even decide, you know, how much you want us to spend on military

Jacob Shapiro:

or what tariffs you want on or off.

Jacob Shapiro:

We're, we're leaving the meetings until you can figure something out.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I think this is actually a big signal that like you, like multipolarity

Jacob Shapiro:

is accelerating and us strength.

Jacob Shapiro:

Is not what it used to be.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think you can say that exactly about the Israelis too.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like even Trump saying, stop the bombs, like having to scream, stop the bombs.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, true.

Jacob Shapiro:

Nobody's listening to this guy.

Jacob Shapiro:

They're just all flattering.

Marko Papic:

Well, I, I think, you know, um, there's limits to every argument, you

Marko Papic:

know, and I think multiple is clearly.

Marko Papic:

Uh, otherwise Israel would not have attacked Iran, uh, without

Marko Papic:

much of a warning to the US without really involvement that would not

Marko Papic:

have happened in a unipolar world.

Marko Papic:

But at the same time, just limits to that, right?

Marko Papic:

Like the US And this is always something that I always caveat,

Marko Papic:

especially for American audience.

Marko Papic:

I. A multipolar world doesn't mean that every country is equally powerful.

Marko Papic:

That's not what it means.

Marko Papic:

It just, there just no one country with preponderance of power.

Marko Papic:

But it doesn't mean that the US is still not the most

Marko Papic:

powerful country in the world.

Marko Papic:

It is.

Marko Papic:

As President Trump said, the only country that can deliver a payload, such as it

Marko Papic:

was and Fordo from Missouri, like that's the only country in the world that can

Marko Papic:

go that distance with that payload.

Marko Papic:

And it's the only country that can tell Israel after watching it for

Marko Papic:

two weeks disobey the US effectively.

Marko Papic:

Eventually Israel runs outta rockets, you know, to defend itself.

Marko Papic:

And now us is Aha.

Marko Papic:

Now what, so, you know, the problem with these arguments, Jacob, is

Marko Papic:

sometimes people get too literal and too, like, well, what do you mean?

Marko Papic:

Like, well, it's nuanced, but in a, in a unipolar world like this

Marko Papic:

would not have happened either way.

Marko Papic:

You're, you're correct.

Marko Papic:

I mean, it's, it's, it's a push and pull, you know, and one of the things

Marko Papic:

that will deepen multipolarity, like what will deepen it, is that Germany

Marko Papic:

will have the largest conventional army.

Marko Papic:

In Europe, which will mean that it's one of the top five greatest

Marko Papic:

military powers in the world again.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

And that will deepen, I dunno if you saw.

Jacob Shapiro:

I dunno if you saw also, uh, president Trump, just in the last,

Jacob Shapiro:

as we've been talking, has been just railing on the Spaniards for not, not

Jacob Shapiro:

agreeing to spend this much money.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, Spanish markets also down as a result that, uh, I don't do

Jacob Shapiro:

much trading, but I'm, I'm pretty bullish on, on Spain in general.

Jacob Shapiro:

But, uh, yeah, I, I, I think that just reinforces what we're talking about.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like if you don't, if you're not nice to him, if you don't do what he says,

Jacob Shapiro:

like he's gonna do this to you, so.

Jacob Shapiro:

Why wouldn't the Spanish government just be like, sure, we'll spend it, we'll do

Jacob Shapiro:

whatever you want, and then not spend it.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like that's an own goal.

Jacob Shapiro:

May maybe they're powerful enough or they're They're fine enough,

Jacob Shapiro:

they don't want to, but yeah,

Marko Papic:

it's a total own goal.

Marko Papic:

It's a total own goal.

Marko Papic:

And the reason it's an own goal is because it's until 2035.

Marko Papic:

Why would you stick your neck out?

Marko Papic:

Everybody else fell in line, you know, not because they're afraid

Marko Papic:

of Trump, but because why would you go through the trouble of fighting?

Marko Papic:

United States of America on this, like the, the, the goalposts are so wide

Marko Papic:

on this target that you can drive a brand new aircraft carrier through it.

Marko Papic:

So like why push against it?

Marko Papic:

And so, yeah, I I would argue that, you know, um, we have that top 30

Marko Papic:

leaders, um, trade value coming up.

Marko Papic:

Pedro Sanchez may have to drop a little bit.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, he was.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, newsflash.

Jacob Shapiro:

He was not in my top 30.

Jacob Shapiro:

All keep mind.

Jacob Shapiro:

Anything else, Marco, before we go?

Jacob Shapiro:

I gotta get outta here.

Marko Papic:

No, that's it.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I think the postmortem is done.

Marko Papic:

Um, just as a summary, I think this, uh, it's nonsense to discuss whether the

Marko Papic:

nuclear program is obliterated or not.

Marko Papic:

It is highly, highly, um, unlikely that, uh, Iran's going to get a

Marko Papic:

nuke in the next like 12 months.

Marko Papic:

US can mow the grass with further military strikes.

Marko Papic:

And then the thing, uh, is regime survival.

Marko Papic:

Probably here to stay.

Marko Papic:

The question is how it evolves.

Marko Papic:

That was your point.

Marko Papic:

And then finally, I would focus on Iraq.

Marko Papic:

That's where I would wanna watch for signed And Iranian

Marko Papic:

weakness is going to lead to more destabilization in the region.

Marko Papic:

And finally, um, in closing, what I would say is send your loved one a text.

Marko Papic:

And if you need help with how to structure it, read Mark

Marko Papic:

Ruiz comments to Donald Trump.

Marko Papic:

They were very sweet.

Marko Papic:

I.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, lessons on sensuality from a political nihilist.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's great.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, rest of the world.

Jacob Shapiro:

Please don't blow anything up.

Jacob Shapiro:

So we can do our leadership column, uh, podcast next week.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like give us a week here, guys.

Jacob Shapiro:

Jesus.

Jacob Shapiro:

All right, me too.

Jacob Shapiro:

See you later.

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