The Fourth Reich

AfD won 44% in Saxony-Anhalt, and the Twittersphere (x-sphere just doesn't hit, sorry) immediately projected Panzer divisions massing on the Polish border. Is AfD kinda scary right-wing populist? For sure. But every right-wing populist party in Europe has faced this same test over the last decade, and 17 out of 17 came to Jesus on the Euro once they had to actually govern. So is Germany becoming the Fourth Reich?? Unlikely. This is just what happens to a country where too much remains unsayable - about immigration, about Ukraine, about energy - and who fills that vacuum.

Also: Greek shippers, making a killing.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Cold Open and Timing

(00:29) - AfD Shock Headlines

(02:16) - Europe Media Myths

(05:12) - AfD Strategy and Taboos

(09:29) - EU Integration Is Settled

(12:21) - Not Nazis but Risks

(14:18) - East Germany Roots

(17:47) - Ukraine and Russia Realism

(21:05) - Coalitions and Overton Window

(23:58) - Migration and Integration Crunch

(32:26) - Long Trend Not Flash

(34:42) - East West Guilt Divide

(36:53) - Guilt Politics Backfire

(37:46) - Teaching History Without Dwelling

(39:34) - Sons And Fathers Debate

(41:07) - Statues And Memory Wars

(42:12) - Germany Flags And Expert Skepticism

(43:29) - Why Parliaments Tame Extremes

(45:05) - Let AfD Govern Locally

(45:47) - Houthis Strike And Oil Risks

(48:35) - Greek Shippers Beat Blockades

(53:01) - Supply Chains Adapt Over Time

(55:25) - Corporate Strategy In Gray Zones

(58:29) - Amoral Multipolar Lessons

(01:01:47) - Houthi Sponsorship Joke Break

(01:02:21) - Ballmer Kawhi And Uncle Dennis

(01:03:46) - Clippers Insecurity And Hubris

(01:09:43) - Jersey Retirements And Wrap Up

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro