Episode 21

What The F*ck Is a Framework Trade Agreement???

Jacob and Marko roll out their first “Geopolitical Six Pack,” each bringing three key global developments to the table. They unpack the Trump-EU “framework” trade deal, argue over the strategic logic of tariffs, and assess Europe’s long game. From Taiwan’s volatile domestic politics to Trump’s AI policy pivot and Chinese tech strategy, the cousins explore how material wealth drives power in a multipolar world. Also on tap: India’s souring relations with the U.S., forgotten territorial disputes, and sleeper NBA picks. It’s freewheeling, irreverent, and insight-drenched—just don’t drink all six at once.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction to the Intellectual Six Pack

(01:34) - Beer Preferences and College Memories

(04:06) - Geopolitical Six Pack Concept

(05:49) - US-EU Trade Deal Analysis

(11:29) - Implications of the Trade Deal

(25:35) - Taiwan's Political Landscape

(38:21) - US Defense Strategy for Taiwan and Ukraine

(41:31) - Trump's Impact on US-India Relations

(47:19) - Trump's AI Strategy and US-China Tech Rivalry

(01:00:30) - Global Geopolitical Dynamics and Forgotten Territorial Disputes

(01:04:58) - Fantasy Basketball Draft Tips

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Transcript
Jacob Shapiro:

Well honestly, Marco, I usually introduce this, but you just like,

Jacob Shapiro:

like got this great concept that we're gonna roll out to the listeners right now.

Jacob Shapiro:

So tell them why our listeners are enjoying their first

Jacob Shapiro:

pathogen Shapiro six pack.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, so, you know, in the ongoing effort to get a six

Marko Papic:

pack, which will last forever until I die, uh, and will never work

Marko Papic:

'cause I'm a chubby Serb like Yoki.

Marko Papic:

Uh, basically we're going to do an intellectual six pack.

Marko Papic:

And so when we don't have a prepared gimmick, like the top 20

Marko Papic:

liters in the world or the trade value or whatever, uh, we're just

Marko Papic:

gonna do a nice little six pack.

Marko Papic:

And what that means is that, you know, Jacob is gonna have three items of his

Marko Papic:

own that he didn't necessarily prep me for, except maybe a little bit.

Marko Papic:

And same with me together, it's a six pack of geopolitical events.

Marko Papic:

That we think are important for our listeners to hear about.

Marko Papic:

So there you go.

Marko Papic:

It's a six pack.

Marko Papic:

That's what this podcast is.

Marko Papic:

And every podcast where we don't have a specific topic, we prepared, uh, to

Marko Papic:

spend like an hour on, like we, you know, we did one about trade and tariffs.

Marko Papic:

Uh, listen up.

Marko Papic:

That was a really good one.

Marko Papic:

Like, go back and listen to it if you have the chance.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I'm gonna reference it a little bit in one of my six, one of my

Marko Papic:

three items, but whenever we don't have something, it's just gonna

Marko Papic:

be a nice little six pack for you.

Marko Papic:

So there you go.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's perfect.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's, that's perfect.

Jacob Shapiro:

Are, are you more of a, what, what, what is your favorite beer?

Jacob Shapiro:

I should know this about you.

Marko Papic:

Uh, oh, that's an interesting, so I'm not a beer drinker,

Marko Papic:

you know, it's, uh, all my friends from college remember me as the guy

Marko Papic:

who just walked the dorm hallways with like a bottle of, uh, Olli, you

Marko Papic:

know, like, so I come from Europe, uh, and I went to university in Canada,

Marko Papic:

university of British Columbia.

Marko Papic:

Shout out to the Thunderbirds.

Marko Papic:

And everyone's basically an alcoholic, right?

Marko Papic:

And everyone's drinking beer nonstop.

Marko Papic:

And I'm like, why are we drinking beer?

Marko Papic:

Is it somebody's birthday?

Marko Papic:

And they're like, no, mark, it's Tuesday.

Marko Papic:

We get drunk.

Marko Papic:

That's what we do.

Marko Papic:

And so I was like, okay, but why don't we cut out the middleman?

Marko Papic:

I eat the carbs and just go straight to the alcohol.

Marko Papic:

Like what's, what's, why, why is the vessel through which

Marko Papic:

you consume alcohol only 6%.

Marko Papic:

Why not go to 40?

Marko Papic:

Like, I don't understand if the point is to get drunk.

Marko Papic:

So I was the guy with a bottle of vodka, right?

Marko Papic:

And uh, I've never really acquired beer.

Marko Papic:

Like I still drink like only laggers 'cause I'm thirsty and it's super hot.

Marko Papic:

So yeah, the short answer is it's, I'm still light.

Jacob Shapiro:

Ugh.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, the log

Marko Papic:

is nothing, you know?

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

I got you.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, my six pack, I, I've, I've evolved quite a bit.

Jacob Shapiro:

When I was a, when I was in college, you would not see me with a bottle of stole.

Jacob Shapiro:

You'd see me with a six pack of some, uh, pretentious IPA, because

Jacob Shapiro:

you know, that sounds about right.

Jacob Shapiro:

Course you Cornell

Marko Papic:

man.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, Cornell man.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, IHA Cap, I think a brewing company.

Jacob Shapiro:

Great.

Jacob Shapiro:

But then I OD'ed on IPA to the point where now I just want like

Jacob Shapiro:

the most boring beers possible.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, and actually athletic does this light non-alcoholic beer, which is

Jacob Shapiro:

like, it gets you 80% of the way there.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause all you're really drinking the beer for is you wanna feel

Jacob Shapiro:

like it's hot and you're at the ball game and things like that.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I find that drinking the non-alcoholic light beer.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm like 80% of the way there and I could still function at five o'clock in the

Jacob Shapiro:

morning with my eight month old the next day, like clean up a blown out diaper that

Jacob Shapiro:

covered the entire, that was this morning.

Jacob Shapiro:

Anyway, not to go on that, but I'll also say I've been converted by the great

Jacob Shapiro:

people in Wisconsin Spotted Cow, which is only available in the state of Wisconsin.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's delicious.

Jacob Shapiro:

And every time I go do a gig or visit Wisconsin, I bring spotted cow.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I buy it in the airport and I bring it back to Louisiana.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm basically smuggling it down the bayou.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's how I think of it myself.

Jacob Shapiro:

And it's delicious.

Jacob Shapiro:

They actually, you know, they, they followed me on Twitter.

Jacob Shapiro:

I tried to get them to come on the podcast.

Jacob Shapiro:

No way to talk.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like geopolitics is beer or geography of different alcohol consumption.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, we'll, we'll tweet this FM and see if No, come on, because I love that

Marko Papic:

concept.

Marko Papic:

That's a great concept.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Geopolitics of alcohol consumption.

Marko Papic:

But I also just want to note that the fact that we are, um, you know,

Marko Papic:

lovingly and longingly calling this the six pack, 'cause we don't have one.

Marko Papic:

We're talking about what beer we drink.

Marko Papic:

Like, this is clearly a like early, like late thirties, early

Marko Papic:

forties, two dudes talking.

Marko Papic:

Just, we've definitely aged ourselves.

Marko Papic:

But yeah, so, uh, it's an interesting segue.

Marko Papic:

I didn't know we were gonna talk about beer and alcohol consumption,

Marko Papic:

but I'm not a beer drinker.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

You know, I, I also come by this honestly because if the

Jacob Shapiro:

Nazis had not taken over Vienna and tried to kill all the Jews, my family,

Jacob Shapiro:

which was distilling millions of dollars equivalent worth of alcohol

Jacob Shapiro:

in Vienna would still be in Vienna.

Jacob Shapiro:

I wouldn't be sitting here with you in, uh, in the United States

Jacob Shapiro:

thinking about geopolitics.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, wow.

Jacob Shapiro:

I guess if, if, if you want to thank someone for me taking this turn to

Jacob Shapiro:

geopolitics, you can thank Hitler.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's an interesting way to get to the reductive odd hit, Lauren.

Jacob Shapiro:

Anyway, this

Marko Papic:

is, uh, this is time 74 that you have said something like

Marko Papic:

that, and I can't comment on it.

Marko Papic:

Only you can, because you are the Jew on the podcast, and I will just sit

Marko Papic:

silently and I guess nod like, hmm.

Marko Papic:

Interesting.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's the only form of Jewish privilege there is.

Jacob Shapiro:

Okay.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

Let's,

Marko Papic:

I'll not take, I'll not take Aal Hitler for anything, but you are of

Marko Papic:

course, allowed to do whatever you want.

Marko Papic:

Uh, cool.

Marko Papic:

So who starts, all right.

Marko Papic:

You or me?

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, well, it's up to you.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause you, you coined the, the bit, so why don't you

Jacob Shapiro:

pick, you, you wanna go first?

Jacob Shapiro:

Or, or you wanna give the g the first?

Jacob Shapiro:

I,

Marko Papic:

I, I feel, I, I feel like yours are more profound.

Marko Papic:

Like, I think yours are more profound.

Marko Papic:

Mine might be more nichey.

Marko Papic:

So why don't you start, because I know you're itching to talk, I

Marko Papic:

think about the trade deals, right?

Marko Papic:

This is the first part of our muy six pack.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm, I'm itching to talk about the US and Europe.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, let's do, and their, and their trade deal.

Marko Papic:

And by the way, I just wanna say like, I think one of the

Marko Papic:

best, uh, reactions to that trade deal is Jacob's reaction, uh, that you,

Marko Papic:

uh, sent through your Substack, right?

Marko Papic:

So you have, if you have not signed up for Jacob's Substack,

Marko Papic:

you should I read the whole piece?

Marko Papic:

I thought that you were spot on.

Marko Papic:

So why don't you tell our listeners what's your take of the US EU

Marko Papic:

trade deal and maybe just outline it a little bit for our listeners.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, that, that's very nice of you to say.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm, I'm trying to put more work into substack, putting thoughts out

Jacob Shapiro:

that are available for people when they're cutting room floor in two,

Jacob Shapiro:

two interesting things about that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Number one, I've been using a lot of chat GPT lately.

Jacob Shapiro:

That piece was the first time in six weeks where every single word is me.

Jacob Shapiro:

I didn't use any chat, GPT, and it landed with readers way more than

Jacob Shapiro:

anything else I've written recently.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I think there's a lesson in that.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think maybe we're over, or at least I was over indexing on chat

Jacob Shapiro:

GPT and LLMs for research purposes.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, so that was an interesting thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

The other thing is that that piece was written while my eight month

Jacob Shapiro:

old and my three-year-old were literally in the room next door.

Jacob Shapiro:

The door was shut, but at various points, my three-year-old was like

Jacob Shapiro:

banging on the door, like calling for me.

Jacob Shapiro:

They were screaming.

Jacob Shapiro:

My mother-in-law was folding laundry.

Jacob Shapiro:

I had like, I had these noise canceling headphones and like jacked all the way up.

Jacob Shapiro:

I probably lost a year of hearing 'cause I like could not hear myself

Jacob Shapiro:

as I was typing out those words.

Jacob Shapiro:

And it really landed with people.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I guess what I really need to write well is just sheer chaos and

Jacob Shapiro:

a sanity around me at all times.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, but anyway, so the, the, the US EU deal quote unquote, uh,

Jacob Shapiro:

what did, what did Trump call it?

Jacob Shapiro:

Hold on, lemme quote him.

Jacob Shapiro:

The biggest deal ever made, uh, since the last deal that he made.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause I'm pretty sure he says that about literally every single thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's a framework trade agreement.

Jacob Shapiro:

Marco, I don't know what the fuck a framework trade agreement is.

Jacob Shapiro:

Is it a treaty?

Jacob Shapiro:

Is it an agreement?

Jacob Shapiro:

Is it a MOU?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I still don't have a, like what is a framework trade agreement and

Jacob Shapiro:

how lazy are Reuters in the financial times and everybody else that you're

Jacob Shapiro:

just like, like treating that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like that's a thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like it's not a thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

A framework trade agreement doesn't, anyways, sorry, I don't need to go

Jacob Shapiro:

Larry David on you, but, um, so there

Marko Papic:

please do.

Marko Papic:

This is why you're here.

Jacob Shapiro:

I know you are

Marko Papic:

Larry, David and Silla combined in one human being in

Jacob Shapiro:

one.

Jacob Shapiro:

This is why I also can't watch Curb Your Enthusiasm.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like my wife wants to watch Curb and I'm like, it, it's a little too close to home.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I need to actively resist becoming that personality.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, it's just not good.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's not like good for me from a mental, this is also why I can't

Jacob Shapiro:

watch Woody Allen movies too much.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause like it's just, it's a little too close.

Jacob Shapiro:

I need to stay away.

Jacob Shapiro:

Anyway, so there's this US EU deal.

Jacob Shapiro:

We don't even really know what the terms are.

Jacob Shapiro:

There are already reports out there that the terms are different depending

Jacob Shapiro:

on who's who's, uh, which side says, um, the US is apparently gonna push

Jacob Shapiro:

it through via executive order, which I'm pretty sure is illegal.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, the EU still has to ratify it at a certain level via majority, but at least

Jacob Shapiro:

some of the things that we know, EU goods.

Jacob Shapiro:

Entering the US will be subject to a 15% baseline tariffs.

Jacob Shapiro:

Donald Trump had threatened 30% by August 1st.

Jacob Shapiro:

If there wasn't a deal, the tariff will cover, or at least as we think it is,

Jacob Shapiro:

is gonna cover about 70% of EU exports.

Jacob Shapiro:

Now, there are other things like pharmaceuticals and timber and lumber.

Jacob Shapiro:

That is, they have section 2 32 trade investigations there

Jacob Shapiro:

that are maybe gonna affect the final rates and things like that.

Jacob Shapiro:

There will be some zero for zero tariffs on things like aircraft and

Jacob Shapiro:

certain chemicals and certain drugs and certain semiconductor equipment.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, certain doing a lot of work, uh, in a lot of these things, they still have

Jacob Shapiro:

not decided the most important thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

To our point on beer, what are the tariffs on alcohol, wine,

Jacob Shapiro:

cognac, whiskey, French cheese.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's the one I really care about.

Jacob Shapiro:

We don't have those answers yet, so I'm pissed off.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then also, and those are,

Marko Papic:

and just, just those are critical.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, please.

Marko Papic:

'cause we of, we of course know, uh, the insatiable appetite that

Marko Papic:

Europeans have for American beer.

Jacob Shapiro:

Right, right, right, right alongside their American cars.

Jacob Shapiro:

They'll put the American beer in the cup holder and drive on the auto bond,

Jacob Shapiro:

uh, with the, with the American cars.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then to really top it off, um, the EU is gonna invest 600 billion

Jacob Shapiro:

into the US over Trump's second term and is gonna buy energy.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, what, 750 billion?

Jacob Shapiro:

Was that how much they promised to buy of energy?

Jacob Shapiro:

No.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, I

Marko Papic:

think it's actually been revised to $70 trillion of energy.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, there you go.

Jacob Shapiro:

So the eu, I guess they're just gonna take a bunch of l and g and put it in Hungary

Jacob Shapiro:

or put it wherever they don't wanna put it so that they can just use it forever.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, I don't really understand.

Jacob Shapiro:

So that, that's the outline of the deal.

Jacob Shapiro:

I said in my piece, look, I think there's two ways to look at this.

Jacob Shapiro:

Europe is fundamentally weak and it's gonna be a battleground in a multipolar

Jacob Shapiro:

world rather than a poll or, um, and this goes back to something we've

Jacob Shapiro:

talked about for a while, Marco.

Jacob Shapiro:

The people who win trade wars are the people who don't fight trade wars.

Jacob Shapiro:

So the EU basically declined to fight a war.

Jacob Shapiro:

Ursula of Underlain has taken all the heat from people and saying, all right,

Jacob Shapiro:

I will be, I will bear this cross.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and we got from 30% to 15% terrorists.

Jacob Shapiro:

But the real news is that, you know, Germany just passed a record

Jacob Shapiro:

budget about enabling, you know, uh, deficit spending and everything else.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, even inertial love under underlying statement, she said, okay, like, we're

Jacob Shapiro:

doing this, but this means we have to take bold action at home to make

Jacob Shapiro:

sure that Europe is more competitive, more innovative, more dynamic,

Jacob Shapiro:

you know, all these other things.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, Europe could have pushed a little bit more.

Jacob Shapiro:

They could have said, well, actually, like if you look at services, the trade

Jacob Shapiro:

deficit surplus situation is reversed.

Jacob Shapiro:

Mr. Orange, man, do you wanna talk?

Jacob Shapiro:

They didn't do any of that.

Jacob Shapiro:

They, they put it aside.

Jacob Shapiro:

They closed a deal.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I ended on, I think this is short-term weakness, but it,

Jacob Shapiro:

it is for long-term strength.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I think if you're counting Europe out, you're making a mistake.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then the last point, I would just make Marco on this is, and I, I, I feel

Jacob Shapiro:

like I only realized this a week ago.

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe I should have realized it already.

Jacob Shapiro:

US foreign policy these days.

Jacob Shapiro:

Makes way more sense if you analyze it as if it was a reality TV show than as

Jacob Shapiro:

if we were using our geopolitics and political science brains and things

Jacob Shapiro:

like, all those models don't work.

Jacob Shapiro:

But if you think of this as just a reality TV show, this is the

Jacob Shapiro:

apprentice's tariffs edition.

Jacob Shapiro:

Actually, all of this makes perfect sense.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I wanted to see where you are, but I, I think you'll be with me in, in Europe

Jacob Shapiro:

and in, in having some faith in Europe.

Marko Papic:

I loved your piece, you know, and I loved it because

Marko Papic:

what you did is you outlined the two, two ways to look at this.

Marko Papic:

And I think that, uh, first of all, by the way, on, on the quip about TV shows,

Marko Papic:

I've told my clients, uh, in the financial community, basically when they scoffed

Marko Papic:

at the idea that Trump would be able to conclude trade deals in three months.

Marko Papic:

I said that you scoff only because you lack imagination.

Marko Papic:

And if you are, uh, speaking to way too many learned trade

Marko Papic:

negotiators, these are not trade negotiations for Geneva, for the WTO.

Marko Papic:

These are trade negotiations for made for TV trade deals.

Marko Papic:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

That's what I call them.

Marko Papic:

So we're fully aligned with that.

Marko Papic:

Um, I think that objectively speaking, like if you just use mathematics and you

Marko Papic:

objectively look at this trade deal, you objectively have to say that America won.

Marko Papic:

If you say anything other than that, you have Trump derangement syndrome.

Marko Papic:

This is the way I like test people, like who won the trade deal in

Marko Papic:

objective mathematical terms.

Marko Papic:

And if somebody tells me, well, Europe won.

Marko Papic:

I'm like, uh, guys, Europe will apply two point a half

Marko Papic:

percent tariff on America cars.

Marko Papic:

Americans will apply 15% tariff on European cars.

Marko Papic:

Like this is obviously an America victory.

Marko Papic:

The problem is that it's a pure hick victory, which is like,

Marko Papic:

it's a rock throwing competition.

Marko Papic:

It's like two kids.

Marko Papic:

No, no.

Marko Papic:

Like here's an analogy if you want, it's two children.

Marko Papic:

Trying to see who's going to throw the rock more accurate

Marko Papic:

accurately at the principal's car in the parking lot of your school.

Marko Papic:

And one kid is purposely like missing and the other kid is like, fucking nailed it.

Marko Papic:

And then here comes Mr.

Marko Papic:

Garrison.

Marko Papic:

It is like, what the hell did you do?

Marko Papic:

Right?

Marko Papic:

Oh, sorry, Mr. Mackey.

Marko Papic:

Like that was not nice.

Marko Papic:

Okay, so the point that I'm getting at here is that, yeah,

Marko Papic:

America won, but what did it win?

Marko Papic:

Your, to your point, the way you put it was like, you don't

Marko Papic:

wanna really fight a trade war.

Marko Papic:

And one of the reasons is that, um, this first order effect is what Reuters

Marko Papic:

and Bloomberg, and most of my clients, quite frankly, on Wall Street, and

Marko Papic:

most people on fin Tweet, they're obsess about first order effects.

Marko Papic:

Like, yeah, absolutely.

Marko Papic:

Donald Trump cleaned the floor with Ursula of Underlaid.

Marko Papic:

However, tariffs are not good, like for your economy.

Marko Papic:

Not because of some petty, idiotic reason, like their inflation.

Marko Papic:

Who cares?

Marko Papic:

I, I'm, I'm okay with that.

Marko Papic:

And they will raise revenue.

Marko Papic:

That's great.

Marko Papic:

Well done.

Marko Papic:

You're all like, cool.

Marko Papic:

The problem is that I'm not sure that you want to protect

Marko Papic:

your domestic car industry.

Marko Papic:

This is the land and the path and the narrative of import substitution.

Marko Papic:

This is the way that you lose productivity.

Marko Papic:

This is the way you rest on your laurels and you let the big three, Detroit, which

Marko Papic:

has effectively ceased to be able to produce, uh, what's the word, a sedan.

Marko Papic:

You let them basically just get lazy in fat.

Marko Papic:

Competition is how you get productive.

Marko Papic:

I mean, look, obviously if you're a developing nation and you

Marko Papic:

don't have a car industry at all, fine slap a 50% tariff on cars.

Marko Papic:

So you can maybe learn how to build a car domestically, but you wanna take them

Marko Papic:

off in order to be competitive globally.

Marko Papic:

And that's what the irony of this is like, yes, America absolutely won.

Marko Papic:

Objectively speaking, America will now apply 15% tariff on a European car.

Marko Papic:

Europe will have to apply 2.5%, but no one's gonna buy American cars in Europe.

Marko Papic:

You know, other than Tesla, like no American car is gonna be purchased.

Marko Papic:

You, you could put a negative tariff on them.

Marko Papic:

Like here, I'll give you 10%.

Marko Papic:

So if a American car costs two thou 20,000 euros, I'll give you 2000 euros.

Marko Papic:

How are you gonna park in F-150?

Marko Papic:

How are you gonna parallel park it in Brussels?

Jacob Shapiro:

You know, like, I mean as, as, as we've talked about before,

Jacob Shapiro:

the real market to to capitalize on for, for trucks is gonna be your

Jacob Shapiro:

jihadis and your formerly ISIS guy.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

Make sure.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

And they're driving Toyotas, so, yeah, that's

Marko Papic:

right.

Marko Papic:

Make sure Afghanistan has like, look, look.

Marko Papic:

But seriously, I think that this is the point of this, I think, I think

Marko Papic:

there is some level of tariffs the United States probably should apply in

Marko Papic:

order to deal with its fiscal issue.

Marko Papic:

I think that's where I am more aligned with the Trump administration.

Marko Papic:

15% is I think, too high and I think it's not too high because

Marko Papic:

the consumers can't take it.

Marko Papic:

Although yes, that is a concern of mine as well.

Marko Papic:

The other concern I have is that protecting American industry is a

Marko Papic:

sure way to ensure that it collapses not tomorrow, not in two or three

Marko Papic:

years, but in five to 10 years.

Marko Papic:

So if you're listening to this podcast and you don't have like a PhD in economics

Marko Papic:

or you're not like a CFR member or you're not somebody who understands these things

Marko Papic:

'cause you think about 'em all day.

Marko Papic:

I just wanna make sure you understand.

Marko Papic:

It is not good to protect your industries.

Marko Papic:

Just like it's not good to coddle your children.

Marko Papic:

Like if you give your children $3,000 monthly allowance, guess what?

Marko Papic:

You're never going to learn how to do.

Marko Papic:

Get a job.

Marko Papic:

It doesn't matter how rich you are.

Marko Papic:

You should not be coddling your industries, especially when you

Marko Papic:

are a rich, advanced, industrial, productive country like America.

Marko Papic:

You are not, you're not starting a car industry.

Marko Papic:

You have it.

Marko Papic:

You need to expose it to international competition.

Marko Papic:

You need to ensure that when Cadillac makes a sedan to fight

Marko Papic:

against BMW three series, it doesn't need that 15% tariff to survive.

Marko Papic:

Rather, people around the world are like, you know what?

Marko Papic:

I would like to drive a Cadillac.

Marko Papic:

Like I actually think that's a really good car.

Marko Papic:

So right now America makes like pickup trucks and giant SUVs for

Marko Papic:

family of 14 or Uber drivers.

Marko Papic:

Like that's it.

Marko Papic:

If you are in a market for a pickup truck or in a three row sedan, so you can be

Marko Papic:

an Uber driver, you favor American cars.

Marko Papic:

Everybody else, no.

Marko Papic:

Like not, not really.

Marko Papic:

And so I think that's a problem.

Marko Papic:

And I think that tariffs are not gonna help.

Marko Papic:

That.

Marko Papic:

They're gonna actually impede that over the long period of time.

Marko Papic:

They're gonna ensure that American industry actually gets lazy.

Marko Papic:

So I would say that from that perspective, it's a mistake.

Marko Papic:

The other thing you mentioned is the rest of the world is going to do

Marko Papic:

what President Trump says right now.

Marko Papic:

You you, what was the way you phrased this?

Marko Papic:

Wait and see.

Marko Papic:

Didn't you have a, like everyone's just kind of doing what he wants

Marko Papic:

right now, but they're buying time.

Marko Papic:

I think you used the term buying time.

Marko Papic:

A lot of the countries are going to give President Trump what he wants,

Marko Papic:

which is the apprentice moment.

Marko Papic:

You know, you're fired.

Marko Papic:

Oh, I'm so sorry.

Marko Papic:

You know, everyone's gonna kowtow publicly and in those three to five

Marko Papic:

years, they're gonna learn to wean themselves off the us I think one

Marko Papic:

of the greatest powers of the US.

Marko Papic:

Is that it allows the rest of the world to become addicted to it, to its market,

Marko Papic:

to its technology, to its culture.

Marko Papic:

I don't think you want to start, I mean, again, if your objective is to

Marko Papic:

preserve American power over the next 10, 15 years, not the next two years,

Marko Papic:

then I don't think it's really smart to be encouraging the rest of the

Marko Papic:

world, including your allies, to start weaning themselves off of your market.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

I

Marko Papic:

think that's

Jacob Shapiro:

it.

Jacob Shapiro:

It, it's funny because in our last episode you talked about how Trump was

Jacob Shapiro:

caught liver oil and now like what Trump is doing is he's more like a twinie.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like it's, there's literally no Well, twin benefit to like,

Marko Papic:

well, I think he's a twinie to the us.

Marko Papic:

When I said he's called liver oil, I meant to literally every

Marko Papic:

country other than the us Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Which is consistent.

Marko Papic:

Which is consistent with your view.

Marko Papic:

You're basically saying like, look, I don't think that

Marko Papic:

Amer, uh, that Europe lost.

Marko Papic:

I think Europe is just buying time.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

And, and they're buying time to do stuff that Trump is forcing them to do.

Marko Papic:

But those, that stuff, those reforms will be good for Europe, not necessarily for

Marko Papic:

the us and unfettered access to American markets, which a lot of market camp hates.

Marko Papic:

They think it's like just wanton, magnanimous without any

Marko Papic:

concern for national interest.

Marko Papic:

I disagree with that.

Marko Papic:

I think that access to the American market, American consumers, that

Marko Papic:

access has been one of the greatest tools of American foreign policy.

Marko Papic:

And it's the stick that America has used to ensure the rest of the world remains

Marko Papic:

addicted to its services, products, goods, markets, blah, blah, blah.

Marko Papic:

And now President Trump has basically said like, look, we

Marko Papic:

will use that access willy-nilly to accomplish whatever we want.

Marko Papic:

And I think that will be that called liver oil that forces Canada, Europe,

Marko Papic:

China, everyone else to say, okay, fine.

Marko Papic:

Let's make a five year plan to become less reliant in the us.

Jacob Shapiro:

When you said wanton, magnanimous, magnanimous.

Jacob Shapiro:

I I thought you were saying wonton for a second.

Jacob Shapiro:

I thought we were gonna start talking about wonton soup and South

Jacob Shapiro:

Park and a bunch of other things.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, but I, I have three signals and then I'll, and then I'll turn it

Jacob Shapiro:

over to you for our second beer, because there's a lot of noise here.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I, I put three signals, or I identified three signals in all this.

Jacob Shapiro:

The first, and I just sort of brushed this aside, but Germany, Germany's government

Jacob Shapiro:

approved a draft 2026 budget that includes a record investment of 126 billion euros

Jacob Shapiro:

and borrowing 175 billion euros more for a big package on infrastructure and defense.

Jacob Shapiro:

So that sound that you can hear in the background listeners, those are

Jacob Shapiro:

the gears of German industry getting ready to fuck up the rest of the world.

Jacob Shapiro:

When they decide that they wanna start doing things,

Jacob Shapiro:

they will start doing things.

Jacob Shapiro:

So there's your one signal, your second signal, and this was something

Jacob Shapiro:

I was ac the, the second, yeah, we'll go back to the Hitler stuff.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like my distillery was in the cross airs the last time this shit happened.

Jacob Shapiro:

I am perfectly placed to tell, I hear the sound it's coming.

Jacob Shapiro:

The second thing, and I was actually surprised about this, Marco, if you look

Jacob Shapiro:

at both non-military and military aid given to Ukraine in 22 to 24 versus so far

Jacob Shapiro:

this year in 2025, it's basically Europe.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's not the United States.

Jacob Shapiro:

So we've been hearing for years the Europeans aren't there,

Jacob Shapiro:

they're not supporting Ukraine.

Jacob Shapiro:

Oh yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

In, in 2025.

Jacob Shapiro:

You surprised they've been supporting Ukraine?

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I didn't know it was that big.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I thought it was, ah, maybe it's more 50 50.

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe it's 60.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's not, it's like most of it is coming from Europe.

Jacob Shapiro:

So like this vision of the Europeans are, are effeminate and puny.

Jacob Shapiro:

No.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like they're actually the ones that are standing up the Ukrainians versus Russia.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then the last thing is just think about all the shit that

Jacob Shapiro:

Wander land has taken for this.

Jacob Shapiro:

People like the French Prime Minister, by the way, who cares that France

Jacob Shapiro:

has a prime minister, but whatever like is is saying she's super weak.

Jacob Shapiro:

I can't believe we did this.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's a signal, because that's the Europeans being like, we

Jacob Shapiro:

don't want to be puny and passive.

Jacob Shapiro:

We want to be strong.

Jacob Shapiro:

So the next European commissioner better be muscular and strong.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think that's actually, you know, people are showing, oh, that's a

Jacob Shapiro:

sign that Europe is into Clint.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, no, no.

Jacob Shapiro:

The reaction is showing you that Europe itself, the median

Jacob Shapiro:

voter in Europe, if you will.

Jacob Shapiro:

Doesn't like this, wants to make sure that the next time this

Jacob Shapiro:

happens, it's Europe that's holding the cards, not the United States.

Jacob Shapiro:

So like amidst all the noise, like those are the three things that like

Jacob Shapiro:

really brought me to, uh, in the long term probably better for, for Europe.

Marko Papic:

Well, you also said something important, again,

Marko Papic:

I'm paraphrasing your view.

Marko Papic:

Uh, you mentioned that all the hate and all the criticism for wander laden

Marko Papic:

is also a sign that is buck passing.

Marko Papic:

That's a term that European analysts have used for a long time.

Marko Papic:

Whenever European member states don't like something, they blame the

Marko Papic:

commission, but they do that because it's a very painful and, uh, foul

Marko Papic:

tasting pill they have to swallow.

Marko Papic:

So they have the commission do it on their behalf.

Marko Papic:

So again, co liver oil.

Marko Papic:

Donald Trump is out there handing out a spoon with cod liver oil and it's wander

Marko Papic:

laden who has to swallow it, right?

Marko Papic:

And everybody is like, oh, that's so bad.

Marko Papic:

But actually they all need that.

Marko Papic:

They, she bought them time.

Marko Papic:

Right.

Marko Papic:

And look, ultimately, you and I are both quite bullish Europe and we think that

Marko Papic:

Europe is gonna do a lot of interesting things over the next five years.

Marko Papic:

But at the end of the day, we're gonna be right or wrong on whether

Marko Papic:

they take this time that Ursula of underlaid and bought them with kowtowing

Marko Papic:

to Donald Trump unceremoniously and quite gracious Ungraciously.

Marko Papic:

If they just wasted again, as Europeans are known to do, well,

Marko Papic:

then they will have wasted it.

Marko Papic:

But the commitment by Germany that you just cited suggests

Marko Papic:

to me they're not wasting it.

Marko Papic:

And you know, it was funny when, uh, when Trump met with Frieder Mertz, I

Marko Papic:

don't know if you caught that really cute and funny moment when, uh, Trump

Marko Papic:

turns to Chancellor Mertz and goes like.

Marko Papic:

Oh, and now you've committed to great defense spending.

Marko Papic:

And you go, Germany has done that in the past.

Marko Papic:

Maybe too much.

Marko Papic:

I don't know.

Marko Papic:

Something, you know, and it was just so funny 'cause it was a Nazi

Marko Papic:

joke with the German chancellor.

Marko Papic:

He did like, oh, in the past you guys have maybe done too much defense

Marko Papic:

spending, I don't know, some say.

Marko Papic:

And you're like, did you, did you just, you know, like we all have that

Marko Papic:

German friend that we've like pushed too far and they're like, bro, it's

Marko Papic:

not actually funny, but Friedrich Mez is there in the White House.

Marko Papic:

And he's like, haha.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, we, we did too much.

Marko Papic:

Like, yes.

Marko Papic:

Oh my God.

Marko Papic:

Only all Donald Trump.

Marko Papic:

And listen, if you don't laugh at that, you've got a Trump derangement syndrome.

Marko Papic:

Man, it's funny.

Marko Papic:

It's legitimately the president of the United States of America is making a

Marko Papic:

Nazi joke to the German chancellor.

Marko Papic:

That's 2025 for you.

Marko Papic:

Alright.

Jacob Shapiro:

It really, it really like, I mean, Trump has really taken away like

Jacob Shapiro:

lots of ammo from humor, like South Park to, to be humorous, has to put him in

Jacob Shapiro:

bed with Satan to make jokes, right?

Jacob Shapiro:

Because he is taken everything else.

Jacob Shapiro:

There's literally nothing else you can do except do that anyway.

Jacob Shapiro:

Open your second beer.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, that was, yeah.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

So I'm opening a second beer over, uh, six pack.

Marko Papic:

I'm gonna, I'm gonna go a little obscure and, uh, I'm gonna give a shout out.

Marko Papic:

Uh, obviously you followed this stuff, but, uh, I'm not

Marko Papic:

sure a lot of other people do.

Marko Papic:

So I'm gonna give a big shout out to our mutual friend, uh, Matt Kin, who is, uh,

Marko Papic:

our former colleague from Strat four.

Marko Papic:

He's my current colleague at, uh, BC Research.

Marko Papic:

And basically, um, it has to do with a recall election of

Marko Papic:

24 legislators in, uh, Taiwan.

Marko Papic:

So basically, uh, the opposition party, KMT, the Kwame Dong, which is the

Marko Papic:

original of course, uh, existential.

Marko Papic:

Opponent to the Chinese Communist Party that fled the Chinese mainland to Taiwan.

Marko Papic:

Uh, they're now in the opposition and have been to the ruling DPP for a while.

Marko Papic:

They, uh, they're seen as, uh, as, uh, more friendly to

Marko Papic:

China, uh, in a perverse way.

Marko Papic:

It's because they believe that they are durational rulers

Marko Papic:

of all of mainland China.

Marko Papic:

So like, like, let's leave that aside.

Marko Papic:

But yes,

Jacob Shapiro:

you have, you have to really appreciate the con the intellectual

Jacob Shapiro:

consistency, like in a world of such hypocrisy, like just sticking with it.

Jacob Shapiro:

I really appreciate it.

Marko Papic:

I do too.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

So KMT basically, uh, has always tried to, uh, reduce tensions across streets.

Marko Papic:

Um, and they, uh, want the legislative election, even though the president

Marko Papic:

is from the ruling DPP, and he is, uh, you know, pro, I don't

Marko Papic:

wanna say pro independence 'cause that's not fair, uh, but more pro

Marko Papic:

sovereignty and definitely anti-China.

Marko Papic:

And so there was a completely grassroots campaign.

Marko Papic:

Not aligned with any party.

Marko Papic:

To be fair, they tried to, but it was very virulently, anti-China grassroots

Marko Papic:

campaign to recall 24 members of, uh, KMT, um, of their, uh, of their legislative

Marko Papic:

caucus for basically being Chinese agents.

Marko Papic:

And, uh, there was a recall election and, uh, they lost the recall lost

Marko Papic:

across every single one, including a mayoral, uh, uh, actual mayor of one

Marko Papic:

cities who was a non-GI legislative member who was also being recalled.

Marko Papic:

And, uh, the reason it's important, of course, is that it shows that,

Marko Papic:

uh, Taiwanese people are not like solely focused on the China issue.

Marko Papic:

There are other issues.

Marko Papic:

They did not want to give the DPA legislative majority because they felt,

Marko Papic:

well, that's not what we voted for.

Marko Papic:

We already voted for the opposition to check them.

Marko Papic:

So the president is opposed by KMT, uh, uh, opposition led.

Marko Papic:

Legislative.

Marko Papic:

But the other issue that's important is that had, uh, the president achieved

Marko Papic:

legislative majority, one of the things he would've tried to push after the

Marko Papic:

recall is a massive increase in defense spending, which would've of course set

Marko Papic:

the cross street, um, relations, um, you know, uh, to a different ball game.

Marko Papic:

I mean, China was obviously already criticizing that.

Marko Papic:

Um, the reason I wanna bring this up is that he didn't receive that much coverage,

Marko Papic:

you know, and, uh, Matt, Matt kin and I were in a, in a client meeting actually

Marko Papic:

yesterday with a sovereign wealth fund.

Marko Papic:

And, uh, one of the people on that call actually mentioned that like, wow,

Marko Papic:

like nobody really talks about this.

Marko Papic:

This seems like a really big issue.

Marko Papic:

And I mentioned, yes, and the reason I wanted to bring it up is not just

Marko Papic:

because people in finance should listen to it, but also like just

Marko Papic:

listeners of this podcast should be aware of a very important reality.

Marko Papic:

Small countries sometimes change history.

Marko Papic:

I think too many of us have become enamored with this kind of risk

Marko Papic:

board game view of geopolitics.

Marko Papic:

Like, oh, it's China versus us, us versus Russia.

Marko Papic:

But countries that are often the chess board upon which the game of geopolitical

Marko Papic:

chess is being played, do, have agency of their own and they can muck up things.

Marko Papic:

For example, I'm Serbian, I know more about this than anybody else.

Marko Papic:

Like we literally started World War I, you know, the original terrorist, what's up?

Marko Papic:

You know, high Five to my brethren, assassinated.

Marko Papic:

You know your archduke apparently.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

He, he was my archduke.

Jacob Shapiro:

He sure was.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

He was your family's Archduke in Vienna, you know, sitting there trying

Marko Papic:

to lord over all of continental Europe.

Marko Papic:

And we were like, no.

Jacob Shapiro:

And, and he was still much nicer than what came afterwards.

Jacob Shapiro:

So, four one, actually, actually, actually, that's the irony.

Marko Papic:

Actually.

Marko Papic:

This is also ironic in a, in a very typical perhaps.

Marko Papic:

Historically Serbian fashion.

Marko Papic:

We did shoot ourselves in the foot because one of his ideas was to

Marko Papic:

bring Serbia into the monarchy and to make it Austria-Hungarian,

Marko Papic:

Serbian Empire, actually.

Marko Papic:

Really?

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

That was like, that was his, like, he was a liberal, like answer to his father.

Marko Papic:

So actually, you know, but oops.

Marko Papic:

You know, like, anyways, anyways, details.

Marko Papic:

We shot that guy down.

Marko Papic:

You know what I mean?

Marko Papic:

Anyways, world War, war starts, world war starts.

Marko Papic:

Starts.

Marko Papic:

But the point I'm trying to say is that Germany, Russia, Vienna, la, Paris, they

Marko Papic:

had a very complicated balancing game.

Marko Papic:

And Serb said, hold my beer or more, more accurately hold my, yeah, we got this.

Marko Papic:

And they World War I starts.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's okay listeners, if, if you're wondering if he just took a

Jacob Shapiro:

shot of flow of it and he can't hold it.

Jacob Shapiro:

He didn't, he would be able to hold it.

Jacob Shapiro:

He just got So, I'm so sorry.

Marko Papic:

I'm dying.

Marko Papic:

Oh, I'm dying over here.

Marko Papic:

But it was, it was such an exciting, uh, but, but my point is that that's why

Marko Papic:

it's important item that the situation in Taiwan was actually really important and

Marko Papic:

it could have had really global relevance.

Marko Papic:

And I feel like we kind of dodged the bullet, but it also means that

Marko Papic:

I feel like we don't spend enough time taking Taiwan seriously and

Marko Papic:

Taiwanese sentiment and politics.

Marko Papic:

Seriously.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's inter, and it also, I think one of the reasons it got covered up was

Jacob Shapiro:

because you probably saw that Taiwan's president was supposed to transit, uh,

Jacob Shapiro:

New York on a trip to the Americas.

Jacob Shapiro:

And it th I mean basically the FT was reporting that the US asked, uh, Taiwan

Jacob Shapiro:

not to do this so that he would not be on the United States for any of the trip.

Jacob Shapiro:

People were talking about whether that suggests that the United States

Jacob Shapiro:

wants to defend Taiwan or not as well.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, most of the polls suggest that, uh, most Taiwanese people don't prefer

Jacob Shapiro:

independence or reunion with China.

Jacob Shapiro:

They just prefer the status quo.

Jacob Shapiro:

That is correct.

Jacob Shapiro:

And really the job of the Taiwanese president and Taiwanese leadership

Jacob Shapiro:

is to maintain the status quo.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's just, it's probably gonna be fundamentally impossible for

Jacob Shapiro:

them to maintain the status quo.

Jacob Shapiro:

And you Yeah, go ahead.

Jacob Shapiro:

I can see you wanna take it.

Marko Papic:

Uh, the, just the reason I know those polls very well.

Marko Papic:

And actually after 2019, after the crackdown in Hong Kong by

Marko Papic:

China, the sentiment in Taiwan definitely turned anti-Chinese.

Marko Papic:

Absolutely.

Marko Papic:

But since 20 22, 20 23, 20 24, uh, specifically since 2022, they've

Marko Papic:

had a great front row seat to what it looks like to be a chess board.

Marko Papic:

Just talk to a Ukrainian, you know.

Marko Papic:

Because America has many ways to defend you.

Marko Papic:

One of them is to let you have hundreds of thousands of casualties

Marko Papic:

as you take the brunt of the largest military in the world, in the face.

Marko Papic:

So it's interesting between 2019 and 2022, there's a lot of chess beating in Taiwan.

Marko Papic:

Like, yo, we're not gonna turn out like Hong Kong.

Marko Papic:

You know?

Marko Papic:

And then you see the status quo support rise over the last three years because

Marko Papic:

being a chess board sucks a chess board.

Marko Papic:

And when I say being a chess board, I mean like us and China are clearly

Marko Papic:

playing a geopolitical game of chess.

Marko Papic:

You are the chess board, bro, and it's painful to be a chess board.

Marko Papic:

And so I think that the Taiwanese sentiment has turned towards

Marko Papic:

the status quo more and more.

Marko Papic:

It's rising.

Marko Papic:

Now the, the problem is, as we know in democracies.

Marko Papic:

The loudest best finance interest groups often lead policy.

Marko Papic:

And there is a very loud minority in Taiwan that does want independence, and

Marko Papic:

they have the pool and the ruling DPP.

Marko Papic:

It, it, it's a fringe part of the ecosystem, but it's one that could

Marko Papic:

at some point through machinations, like the one you saw right now with

Marko Papic:

a recall of democratically elected legislators caused something to happen.

Marko Papic:

And that's obviously how World War I started.

Marko Papic:

You know, it's not like the Serbian government, assassinated France

Marko Papic:

Ferdinand, but various terrorist groups funded in nine in the early

Marko Papic:

20th century by members of the Serbian Military and Intelligence Services.

Marko Papic:

Absolutely supported those guys, uh, ADA, Bosnia and, and Black Hand

Marko Papic:

and all that stuff in, in Bosnia.

Marko Papic:

So like this is the issue.

Marko Papic:

Uh, Taiwan is a complicated place.

Marko Papic:

The median Taiwanese, you're correct, does not wanna confrontation with China.

Marko Papic:

Why would you?

Marko Papic:

That's idiotic and insane.

Marko Papic:

But there are always French groups that, that might do that.

Marko Papic:

And that's why I think closer monitoring of this Taiwanese politics

Marko Papic:

is something that we all have to do.

Marko Papic:

But yes, you are right.

Marko Papic:

Also, Trump administration seems to have changed.

Marko Papic:

It's, it's it's view as well.

Jacob Shapiro:

But by the way, well, it's been all over the place though.

Jacob Shapiro:

Remember like when Trump was the first time he was elected, do you

Jacob Shapiro:

remember the first thing he did?

Jacob Shapiro:

He called Taiwan's president.

Jacob Shapiro:

I remember at the time being like, oh my God, a, a precedent has been broken.

Jacob Shapiro:

And now it's like how many precedents since then have been broken.

Jacob Shapiro:

But like there was all that.

Jacob Shapiro:

But then you, you fast forward now it seems like only Bridge Kolby cares

Jacob Shapiro:

about this in DOD like everybody else, whether it's Ruby talking up one China

Jacob Shapiro:

or Trump pressuring the Taiwanese to give trade concessions to the United States.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, oh yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

And just to say like, uh, sort of what, uh, another thing about this is, you

Jacob Shapiro:

know, you brought up Russia and Ukraine.

Jacob Shapiro:

The thing is China's not Russia.

Jacob Shapiro:

Taiwan is not Ukraine.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I don't think China wants to invade or like thinks it can invade Taiwan and win.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think it's gonna take the Hong Kong approach, which is isolate it, make

Jacob Shapiro:

sure nobody recognizes it, make sure nobody has an incentive to defend it.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then when Margaret Thatcher comes and says, we wanna renew the lease 99

Jacob Shapiro:

years, you tell her, okay, but we're gonna cut off the oil, uh, excuse me,

Jacob Shapiro:

the electricity and the water, uh, and like we're just gonna blockade it.

Jacob Shapiro:

Is that really what you want?

Jacob Shapiro:

And then she has to say, okay, I'll go like pool with the Falklands.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause I obviously can't mess around with this.

Jacob Shapiro:

So like when you see that like Beijing is isolating Taiwan and also brain

Jacob Shapiro:

draining them, just like throwing Yuan and all the Taiwanese semi engineers

Jacob Shapiro:

like, come to Shanghai, have the penthouse, do whatever you want.

Jacob Shapiro:

And they're coming like tho those people are listening to that.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then there's Taiwan, which is not Ukraine.

Jacob Shapiro:

And this gets to your point, like Taiwan.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't think it's gonna defend itself the way that Ukraine has

Jacob Shapiro:

defended itself against Russia.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm, that might hurt some Taiwan's feelings and maybe I'm wrong about that.

Jacob Shapiro:

But my impression based on studying it is that they're not gonna defend

Jacob Shapiro:

themselves the way that Ukraine,

Marko Papic:

well, either way.

Marko Papic:

I think that there is danger in being a chess board and I

Marko Papic:

think they understand that.

Marko Papic:

But to your, to the point on top Trump that you said, you know,

Marko Papic:

ambiguity about Trump, I think that there is a lot of unfair criticism.

Marko Papic:

For example, not letting president of Taiwan transit to the us There is a huge

Marko Papic:

gulf between not wanting to provoke China

Marko Papic:

and not wanting to defend Taiwan.

Marko Papic:

There is some like happy medium in between, and I think one of the problems

Marko Papic:

with the Biden administration was that it was so concerned with illustrating

Marko Papic:

domestic strength through aggression in Ukraine and Taiwan, that it was

Marko Papic:

leaning more towards provoking China.

Marko Papic:

I think there's some basic level.

Marko Papic:

Where the US can both guarantee Taiwan's, let's say sovereignty, if

Marko Papic:

not independence, and without having to provoke, you know, like maybe you

Marko Papic:

don't wanna send the Speaker of the House of Representatives to Taipei.

Marko Papic:

Maybe that's like unnecessary.

Marko Papic:

But you can sell weapons, which the US has been doing for decades,

Marko Papic:

you know, and continue to do so.

Marko Papic:

And through back channels tell China like, look, we are actually

Marko Papic:

committed to defense of Taiwan.

Marko Papic:

Like, but, but if, if you are angry by the fact that the Taiwanese president

Marko Papic:

is gonna be transiting through the United States America, fine.

Marko Papic:

He can take a flight through Zurich, great connections, best sandwiches at an airport

Marko Papic:

anywhere in the world, so he'll be happy.

Marko Papic:

You know, like there is a happy medium.

Marko Papic:

And I think a little bit of, of the, uh, criticism of President

Marko Papic:

Trump is like, he's not like, what?

Marko Papic:

Like aggressive, provocative, like asshole enough, eh.

Marko Papic:

I I don't buy that.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, I'm with you.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I'm gonna ask you an impossible hypothetical, but why not?

Jacob Shapiro:

Because this is cousins.

Jacob Shapiro:

Let, let's say China invades Taiwan tomorrow.

Jacob Shapiro:

You think the US defends Taiwan?

Marko Papic:

Well, did the US defend Ukraine?

Marko Papic:

Not at first, not at all.

Marko Papic:

I mean, like, what is the level of defense?

Marko Papic:

And I think, again, this is one of those things that's not a one or a zero.

Marko Papic:

It's a zero to a 10.

Marko Papic:

The United States of America is absolutely not gonna commit

Marko Papic:

US troops to defend of Taiwan.

Jacob Shapiro:

So you don't think so?

Jacob Shapiro:

You don't think that we would send a ba, a carry battle group or anything else

Jacob Shapiro:

to protect Taiwan from an s assault?

Marko Papic:

Maybe send it.

Marko Papic:

But I think that it would be exactly like the situation in Ukraine.

Marko Papic:

Just absolute, uh, no holds barred technological transfer

Marko Papic:

of very sophisticated weapons.

Jacob Shapiro:

Which, which was not what happened at first though.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like what happened first with Ukraine is that we withdrew

Jacob Shapiro:

our embassy staff to the west.

Jacob Shapiro:

We were like, okay, like everybody move out.

Jacob Shapiro:

Good luck.

Jacob Shapiro:

Sorry guys.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then after the Ukrainians kicked them in the teeth and it was like, oh

Jacob Shapiro:

my God, the Russians are bogged down.

Jacob Shapiro:

Oh my God, the Russians are not as what we like, get them the

Jacob Shapiro:

missiles, get them everything.

Jacob Shapiro:

Let's go.

Jacob Shapiro:

But the first reaction was, sorry guys.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like we took, we warned you.

Jacob Shapiro:

Fuck around and find out.

Marko Papic:

Well, actually the first, uh, also, the first thing

Marko Papic:

that the US did was pre-invasion.

Marko Papic:

And this is where Donald Trump is, right?

Marko Papic:

And nobody in the mainstream media wants to give him credit.

Marko Papic:

He did give Ukraine travels.

Jacob Shapiro:

He did in the first term.

Marko Papic:

Yep.

Marko Papic:

He was the first US president to give Ukraine offensive weapons.

Marko Papic:

And now everybody says, oh, that's 'cause he was trying to buy them.

Marko Papic:

So that, you know, like, okay, whatever.

Marko Papic:

Like, sure, maybe fine, but that's a fact.

Marko Papic:

So Ukraine was kind of ready for that initial assault

Marko Papic:

because of American technology.

Marko Papic:

But I agree with you, it was Ukrainians defending, in an amphibious assault

Marko Papic:

technology will matter even more than in a mechanized Dan horn, right?

Marko Papic:

Because you gotta cross a sea.

Marko Papic:

So area denial weapons are gonna be even more, uh, important.

Marko Papic:

So no, I don't think the US is going to use, its its own soldiers to

Marko Papic:

defend Taiwan, but the technological transfer of sophisticated weapons

Marko Papic:

will have an even bigger, more positive effect than it did in Ukraine

Jacob Shapiro:

if the Taiwanese are willing to use them and take the casualty.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I don't think it's for sure.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

I don't think it's, yeah, I mean that's

Marko Papic:

the question, right?

Marko Papic:

Like that's ultimately what will the Taiwanese do?

Marko Papic:

And I guess we'll find out.

Marko Papic:

But I don't know.

Marko Papic:

You know, there's a lot of people who have been doubted.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I would say that nine out of 10 of my clients thought Ukrainians

Marko Papic:

were just gonna be incompetent.

Marko Papic:

And like I had to remind them of history of Ukraine.

Marko Papic:

This is a country that invented partisans.

Marko Papic:

You know what I mean?

Marko Papic:

Like I, and, and they were like, nah, they're corrupt

Marko Papic:

and it's a sclerotic country.

Marko Papic:

Everyone's old.

Marko Papic:

I was like, eh, I don't think so.

Marko Papic:

I think Ukraine is, are gonna fight viciously.

Marko Papic:

This is Eastern Europe.

Marko Papic:

We know how to fight wars.

Marko Papic:

Like even if we lose them, they're not gonna lay down.

Marko Papic:

And I think in Taiwan, you know, there's many, many examples I can

Marko Papic:

use of people who were seen as unwilling to defend themselves.

Marko Papic:

Like who actually then ended up defending themselves ly.

Marko Papic:

So we just don't know all

Jacob Shapiro:

which reasons.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think China's not gonna do this.

Jacob Shapiro:

Okay.

Jacob Shapiro:

Third beer.

Jacob Shapiro:

This one will be a little bit shorter on the read 'cause it's already getting

Jacob Shapiro:

murky, but, so we started this morning with Donald Trump saying that there

Jacob Shapiro:

are going to be 25% tariffs on India.

Jacob Shapiro:

They've been negotiate, I think they've had what, five or six negotiating rounds.

Jacob Shapiro:

It seems like the United States has been holding up negotiations because

Jacob Shapiro:

they want access to Indian markets.

Jacob Shapiro:

In terms of US agriculture, which is a non-starter, I think

Jacob Shapiro:

probably for the Indian government.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, president Trump also said that there would be penalties on

Jacob Shapiro:

India for importing Russian oil.

Jacob Shapiro:

Classic Trump fashion.

Jacob Shapiro:

We don't know what the penalties are.

Jacob Shapiro:

He also came out later and said, ah, like, we're still talking.

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe there's some wiggle room at the same pi at the same time, by the way,

Jacob Shapiro:

China got a 90 day extension for tariffs.

Jacob Shapiro:

So India, the largest democracy in the world.

Jacob Shapiro:

Howdy, Modi.

Jacob Shapiro:

You know, the, the Trump Modi bromance, all that is getting slapped on the

Jacob Shapiro:

wrist this after the Pakistan India fight, where Trump has been out there

Jacob Shapiro:

saying that he should get credit for the ceasefire because of tariffs, which

Jacob Shapiro:

has been pissing the Indians off too.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, I, I, I bring it up because the reason that the British had a second

Jacob Shapiro:

lease on their empire was because they discovered and conquered India,

Jacob Shapiro:

basically like the British Empire probably collapses if they don't integrate India

Jacob Shapiro:

into the empire, um, in the mid 19th century and allows them to carry on to

Jacob Shapiro:

World War I and probably far beyond.

Jacob Shapiro:

If you're the United States and you're thinking about the world and the

Jacob Shapiro:

multipolar world and all the levers that you've pulled in the last couple

Jacob Shapiro:

of years, and administrations of both parties, you probably want India on your.

Jacob Shapiro:

It just feels like the Trump administration is going out

Jacob Shapiro:

of its way to piss India off.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm not sure that India was ever up for grabs.

Jacob Shapiro:

They're famously non-aligned.

Jacob Shapiro:

They wanna do their own thing.

Jacob Shapiro:

They're very, um, powerful is the wrong word, but I mean that many people that

Jacob Shapiro:

size market the potential, like they, they have a weight all of their own.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, but man, if, if Trump just isn't like kicking a potential ally or

Jacob Shapiro:

at least a balancer against some of these other powers in the teeth and

Jacob Shapiro:

for what, like what, what is the United States getting out of this?

Jacob Shapiro:

I know like, you know, you get the trade deal, the reality TV show thing,

Jacob Shapiro:

I guess to show that you're tough, but why you would pick on India this way?

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, we could ask this question about Japan and Canada too, but I'm,

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm really surprised that, um, the Trump administration is treating India like this

Jacob Shapiro:

and I think they are creating like yet another center of power in this multipolar

Jacob Shapiro:

world that is very, very quickly gonna be skeptical of the United States going

Jacob Shapiro:

forward and look to balance against it.

Marko Papic:

I mean, I think, uh, this, uh, maybe I don't really have

Marko Papic:

as much to to comment on this, but, uh, I think that I do worry that maybe

Marko Papic:

the markets and media and journalists and really everybody is not taking

Marko Papic:

Trump's threats like seriously enough.

Marko Papic:

You know, on the Russia thing,

Marko Papic:

the secondary sanctions, I think that we may not be spending enough time on that.

Marko Papic:

And you know, obviously India could be a casualty of those, uh, as well

Marko Papic:

as the China US trade negotiations.

Marko Papic:

Now, those are two parallel things.

Marko Papic:

I think Beijing can chew gum and walk in the same time.

Marko Papic:

They can separate American view towards Russia and um, um, you know, its

Marko Papic:

negotiations with the US separately.

Marko Papic:

But I do think we may be coming to a head, and this goes back to what

Marko Papic:

we talked about in our last episode.

Marko Papic:

Which is that I think that Trump, you know, hell had no, no fury,

Marko Papic:

like President Trump's scorned,

Marko Papic:

right?

Marko Papic:

Like to re redo that old adage, I do think that he is seriously angry that

Marko Papic:

Trump, that Putin has not moved at all towards some sort of ceasefire.

Marko Papic:

And so, like chi uh, India, US relationship could suffer

Marko Papic:

further because of that.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's a, it's a show.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's so shortsighted.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like the thing, like we talked about the US and the eu.

Jacob Shapiro:

The things that Trump has done and how it's gonna affect the future

Jacob Shapiro:

of US India relations, US Brazil relations, US Japan relations.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, you can see sentiment turning against the United

Jacob Shapiro:

States in these countries.

Jacob Shapiro:

And maybe, you know, maybe, maybe it's ephemeral, maybe things turn around.

Jacob Shapiro:

But I think something has fundamentally shifted in these countries.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think these countries are looking at what the United States

Jacob Shapiro:

is doing and they're seeing if you're tough, it doesn't work.

Jacob Shapiro:

If you're friendly, it doesn't work.

Jacob Shapiro:

You're just gonna get screwed by the United States.

Jacob Shapiro:

So we're gonna have to find alternate options.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like I think that is the takeaway lesson for these countries.

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe Trump has in his mind, oh, if I can get this thing, I can move Putin.

Jacob Shapiro:

But that goes back to the classic, okay, instinctually you might

Jacob Shapiro:

be right and maybe you get the thing that you're after right Now.

Jacob Shapiro:

Was it really worth it to piss off India for the next 20 years?

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause that's what you've done with the combo of the tariff Pakistan, India

Jacob Shapiro:

thing, and now this thing about the tariffs and the secondary sanctions.

Jacob Shapiro:

Mm-hmm.

Jacob Shapiro:

Not exactly a good trade.

Jacob Shapiro:

We'd have to think of the BA equivalent.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like maybe you're, you're trading for, uh.

Jacob Shapiro:

I dunno.

Jacob Shapiro:

Hired gun for just the end of the year.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, there's not really many good examples of that in the NBA works

Jacob Shapiro:

where it actually works out.

Marko Papic:

So you're saying India is kd

Jacob Shapiro:

No, I, uh, you'd have to think of a, of a deadline deal.

Jacob Shapiro:

Right?

Jacob Shapiro:

Like somebody that is acquired for just a couple of, maybe like

Jacob Shapiro:

a Kauai Leonard in this case.

Marko Papic:

Mm. You know?

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, that did lead to the championship though.

Jacob Shapiro:

It did lead to the championship and then, and then afterwards it led to

Jacob Shapiro:

nothing and then it led to paying yak perle $120 million for three to four.

Marko Papic:

So Trump is Messiah Jerry?

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's a nice, uh, cross-cultural interesting comparison.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

All right.

Marko Papic:

Let's, I'll have to sit on that.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Alright, well

Jacob Shapiro:

number four.

Jacob Shapiro:

You, you number four.

Jacob Shapiro:

This is, you can actually tell this is a six pack because we're getting less

Jacob Shapiro:

thoughtful as, as we go down as it would be if we were actually training.

Marko Papic:

Yes.

Marko Papic:

Um, I think, uh, my next, uh, actual, uh, subject here is, um.

Marko Papic:

I would like our listeners to spend an hour of their time listening

Marko Papic:

to winning the AI race President Trump on the AI action plan.

Marko Papic:

It's one hour, it's actually featured on the All In Podcast.

Marko Papic:

Um, and, uh, it's President Trump just riffing for an hour on why

Marko Papic:

he actually, what's his vision of how to compete with China and it's

Marko Papic:

diametrically different from Jake Sullivan slash Joe Biden's vision.

Marko Papic:

And so, um, I don't know to what extent our listeners are following this, but

Marko Papic:

effectively the Trump administration has decided to cancel some of the

Marko Papic:

Biden administration restrictions.

Marko Papic:

This has allowed Nvidia to sell some of its advanced chips semiconductors

Marko Papic:

to China, which is part of the reason why Nvidia stock is soaring.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I mean, there's many other reasons of course, and, uh, it's

Marko Papic:

very interesting because this.

Marko Papic:

It's 57 minutes.

Marko Papic:

If you can, Jacob, just put it in the, in our, we roll.

Marko Papic:

Yeah,

Jacob Shapiro:

yeah.

Marko Papic:

On our notes.

Marko Papic:

It's worth listening because Trump effectively says, I mean, aside from

Marko Papic:

saying that Joe Biden was wrong 75 times, you know, he basically, he

Marko Papic:

basically articulates a different strategy, which is that instead of, uh,

Marko Papic:

putting these high fences on American technology, president Trump will ensure

Marko Papic:

that American technology companies make money off of China and then reinvest

Marko Papic:

that money into the r and d so that they can continue to be a leading edge.

Marko Papic:

Those are two diametrically different ways of thinking about

Marko Papic:

competition in the 21st century.

Marko Papic:

And I gotta say, I 800% agree with Trump.

Marko Papic:

I think that the Jake Sullivan view of how to compete with China is abjectly wrong.

Marko Papic:

That it would ultimately ensure that China innovated and created a

Marko Papic:

completely separate architecture on the AI front on many other fronts.

Marko Papic:

And subsequent to that, it would ensure that many countries in the world will

Marko Papic:

adopt that infrastructure, infrastructure that China provides, whether that's

Marko Papic:

Alibaba's ai cloud infrastructure, whether it's China's EV infrastructure,

Marko Papic:

whether it's payment plans, whatever.

Marko Papic:

It's, uh, there is a sensible way to protect cutting edge technology, for sure.

Marko Papic:

Like you don't want to sell China your hypersonic cruise missiles, but like

Marko Papic:

selling China, like letting China gorge itself on a 10-year-old plane or a

Marko Papic:

5-year-old semiconductor is not going to change anything, particularly because many

Marko Papic:

of your own allies in a multipolar world.

Marko Papic:

Are not going to abide bio restrictions.

Marko Papic:

And that was one of the problems that the Biden administration found out.

Marko Papic:

It wasn't widely reported, but there were certain pretty good journalistic

Marko Papic:

efforts to un to reveal that companies like A SML Tokyo Electron would

Marko Papic:

like say, sure, great, we'll comply.

Marko Papic:

And then like 12 months later, like go, oh my God, where do

Marko Papic:

we get this pile of money?

Marko Papic:

You know?

Marko Papic:

And, and, and, and, and again because, not because they're evil, not because

Marko Papic:

they're proin or anti-American.

Marko Papic:

I mean, if you are the Netherlands and A SML is your champion, and

Marko Papic:

Americans come and tell you don't sell your equipment, your sophisticated

Marko Papic:

semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, you're like, okay, so you

Marko Papic:

don't want me to sell this stuff to China, but you also want me to be part

Marko Papic:

of the anti-China Alliance by, you know, developing high tech, um, industrial

Marko Papic:

like innovation that helps the West win.

Marko Papic:

Like, well, I can't do both.

Marko Papic:

Because the foundation of geopolitical power is material wealth.

Marko Papic:

Let me say this again.

Marko Papic:

This is a realist view.

Marko Papic:

The foundation of geopolitical power is material wealth.

Marko Papic:

You need to skim from that surplus to invest in r and d in technology.

Marko Papic:

And the moment you stop losing sight of that, you know, uh, you lose.

Marko Papic:

And by the way, this is where this distinction between commercial

Marko Papic:

interests and geopolitical interests, national security interests blurs.

Marko Papic:

It actually is blurred.

Marko Papic:

It's very difficult to separate the two.

Marko Papic:

And so I actually think that this is a very good, uh, hour.

Marko Papic:

Of course, it's like full of trumpisms, you know, and he's like, I'm smart, Joe.

Marko Papic:

Biden's dumb.

Marko Papic:

You know, God bless.

Marko Papic:

Like, sure, knock yourself out.

Marko Papic:

But it's also an hour of, um, Trump's rhetoric that actually will anchor

Marko Papic:

both Democrats and Republicans.

Marko Papic:

This is something that there will be absolute bipartisan antagonism

Marko Papic:

towards this model, but this modern is rooted in history.

Marko Papic:

If you wanna find out how the United Kingdom fought its trade wars, how

Marko Papic:

United Kingdom became a hegemon and an empire, it was not by, uh, it was not

Marko Papic:

by cutting off trade with its rivals.

Marko Papic:

It was actually by making its rivals become addicted to its technology

Marko Papic:

and to its trade and to its capital.

Marko Papic:

And I think that President Trump has actually figured out how to fight, how

Marko Papic:

to fight rivalries in a multipolar world.

Marko Papic:

And nobody before him really has.

Jacob Shapiro:

The problem with that argument is that Trump started this with

Jacob Shapiro:

his crackdown on Huawei during his first term, and that China made the choice

Jacob Shapiro:

to vertically integrate on these things because of his restrictions on Huawei.

Jacob Shapiro:

So the Biden administration was trying to put a genie back in the

Jacob Shapiro:

bottle from my point of view, and that was never actually going to work.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and so now Trump is trying to reverse course when he actually did the damage.

Jacob Shapiro:

And to me, he probably reversed course because the CEO of Nvidia was on the

Jacob Shapiro:

stage with him at the event in the Gulf with all the investment and things like

Jacob Shapiro:

that, and probably said, Hey, Donald Trump, like, uh, things are gonna go badly

Jacob Shapiro:

if you don't lift these restrictions.

Jacob Shapiro:

And maybe Trump had some cronies who were long Nvidia and they

Jacob Shapiro:

wanted to see Nvidia stock go up.

Jacob Shapiro:

And so he was able to do that and, and sort of enrich, uh, and, and enrich them.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's, that's the much more cynical way of.

Jacob Shapiro:

Looking at the approach because China's gonna do that anyway.

Jacob Shapiro:

You brought up ass ML ASML is the really interesting one.

Jacob Shapiro:

You might remember, um, A SML didn't say where the money's from.

Jacob Shapiro:

Ass ML was like, uh, we're not gonna stop selling to China.

Jacob Shapiro:

Thank you for, for asking.

Jacob Shapiro:

No, but that's not something that we're going to do.

Jacob Shapiro:

And when the Dutch government started giving them problems, you might

Jacob Shapiro:

remember last year they were leaking.

Jacob Shapiro:

We'll, maybe we'll move to France.

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe we're not gonna be in the Netherlands anymore.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, and the Dutch government then started pushing back against the

Jacob Shapiro:

United States along with the, with the Japanese government.

Jacob Shapiro:

And that's the thing that the Chinese can't do.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like the advanced lithography equipment.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

That is the thing that they can't replicate quickly.

Jacob Shapiro:

Everything else, they've basically been able to do it and they're making

Jacob Shapiro:

advances when it comes to lithography.

Jacob Shapiro:

But you are dependent on A SML now to hold back the dam and they're not

Jacob Shapiro:

gonna be able to hold back the dam for,

Marko Papic:

but your point reveals several points of vulnerabilities

Marko Papic:

to the Jake Sullivans of the world.

Marko Papic:

Number one, America doesn't control all innovation on the planet.

Marko Papic:

Many of that innovation is controlled by the allies.

Marko Papic:

Number two.

Marko Papic:

You do not have the carrots and the sticks with which to incite your

Marko Papic:

allies to follow your orders anymore.

Marko Papic:

Because number three, China has not revealed itself to be an evil

Marko Papic:

empire like the Soviet Union.

Jacob Shapiro:

Mm-hmm.

Marko Papic:

So everything will be solved.

Marko Papic:

If China invaded Taiwan, that would be perfect for the United States

Marko Papic:

of America because it could then go to the Netherlands and Japan and

Marko Papic:

France and say, aha, we told you so now we can, can we please now build

Marko Papic:

high fences around the technology?

Marko Papic:

But China hasn't done that because China's not, uh, what's the word?

Marko Papic:

Stupid like the Russians by the way.

Marko Papic:

Sorry, Russia.

Marko Papic:

But that's, that's why Vladimir Putin's not on our list of top 30.

Marko Papic:

Right.

Marko Papic:

But she kind of squirmed his way in.

Marko Papic:

What, what I'm getting at here is that, uh, I think the problem

Marko Papic:

with the Jake Solomon view is that it's just, it's unrealistic.

Marko Papic:

It's built on a Cold War infrastructure.

Marko Papic:

Being able to bully your allies.

Marko Papic:

And the reason your allies cannot be bullied is because you don't

Marko Papic:

have anything to offer them.

Marko Papic:

That's why.

Marko Papic:

And

Jacob Shapiro:

well, and to put it slightly differently, it's also to do

Jacob Shapiro:

that you need an accompanying push when it comes to industrial policy, which also

Jacob Shapiro:

the Biden administration tried to do, but couldn't complete it, couldn't get, you

Jacob Shapiro:

know, both houses on board with everything they wanted to do, even how big inflation

Jacob Shapiro:

reduction act haha was supposed to be.

Jacob Shapiro:

And so you didn't have this sort of space race, uh, mentality.

Jacob Shapiro:

And then also, like, you're not competing with the Soviet Union anymore.

Jacob Shapiro:

You're now treating with a country of over a billion people who's at the cutting

Jacob Shapiro:

edge of many different industries and is ahead of you on many different industries.

Jacob Shapiro:

You're not, you're not against, you know, some drunken guy in the factory

Jacob Shapiro:

and the Soviet Union who's just making up the data so that he doesn't get shot.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like China's a real dynamic economy in a way that the Soviet

Jacob Shapiro:

Union was not and never could.

Marko Papic:

So, yeah.

Marko Papic:

But, but, but that goes to another point that I would, I would wanna point

Marko Papic:

out, you know, uh, I'm of the view.

Marko Papic:

That the greatest, uh, sort of lever that the US can have in China

Marko Papic:

are those levers that empty China off its current account surplus.

Marko Papic:

And I know this is a little bit nerdy point, but what I mean is that when

Marko Papic:

China takes its hard earned money and takes it abroad for some reason,

Marko Papic:

that's a point of vulnerability.

Marko Papic:

Is it?

Marko Papic:

And if I was running the United States of America, I obviously am bathed in aloof

Marko Papic:

nihilism and couldn't care less who wins.

Marko Papic:

But if my interest was for the US to win, I would say, what is it that China buys?

Marko Papic:

Where does it take money and sends it abroad?

Marko Papic:

And there's really two things that it does.

Marko Papic:

Well, three.

Marko Papic:

One is oil.

Marko Papic:

Okay, well, he buys most of that from the Middle East and Russia.

Marko Papic:

So fine, let's leave that aside.

Marko Papic:

Can't really play that game.

Marko Papic:

The other two.

Marko Papic:

Are semiconductors.

Marko Papic:

So chips and tourism.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Yes, tourism sounds weird, but pre COVID.

Marko Papic:

Pre COVID tourism was actually the number one source of Chinese

Marko Papic:

capital outflows because tourism is effectively counted as an import.

Marko Papic:

You know, you're taking domestic currency and you're buying something abroad.

Marko Papic:

So if I was running to United States of America, the two things

Marko Papic:

I would've done is exactly what Donald Trump just did on the video.

Marko Papic:

I would say sell everything.

Marko Papic:

Make them grow addicted to these chips.

Marko Papic:

You want China to innovate as much as you can in ai, but you want that innovation

Marko Papic:

to rest on American infrastructure.

Marko Papic:

Oh, you want to invade Taiwan, yo normal chips, and you don't

Marko Papic:

have domestic production.

Marko Papic:

'cause it was so easy to buy Nvidia.

Marko Papic:

It's a sword of les.

Marko Papic:

The second thing I would've done is I would've gone in and said, no more visas.

Marko Papic:

For Chinese tourists, not because I don't issue them, but because

Marko Papic:

I say Chinese tourists can come to America without a visa.

Marko Papic:

Let's go.

Marko Papic:

And I would, I would like add airline flights to China like

Marko Papic:

50 a day from every major city.

Marko Papic:

Let's go.

Marko Papic:

Those are the, that's actually nuanced, second and third order

Marko Papic:

thinking, and I think that Joe Biden and Jake Sullivan had absolutely no

Marko Papic:

creativity and no domestic political backbone to do anything of that sort.

Marko Papic:

So they kept fighting with this first order, medieval Cold War mentality of

Marko Papic:

like, oh, let's put up restrictions.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

You know what happens in five to 10 years, China has its own AI infrastructure,

Marko Papic:

doesn't need you and can easily withstand any kind of a blockade you impose on

Marko Papic:

it, whether it's a capital blockade, whether it's a high tech blockade.

Marko Papic:

So.

Jacob Shapiro:

Good job.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, no, I, I, I agree with you.

Jacob Shapiro:

I just, I think that would, I think that's true of every single presidential

Jacob Shapiro:

administration going back to Truman and Trump started it, like Trump

Jacob Shapiro:

started it with Huawei, like he was the one that started this thing going.

Jacob Shapiro:

So absolutely pile on the shame for, uh, Sullivan and Biden being small

Jacob Shapiro:

c conservative when it came to this and thinking in a very, very old way.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, but I, I really, yeah, yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's a stretch for me to, it, it's a stretch for me that

Jacob Shapiro:

Donald Trump is sitting there thinking how you're thinking.

Jacob Shapiro:

Me like, aha.

Jacob Shapiro:

I have the sort of dam.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm pretty sure he is just like, I got some Nvidia stock with that, uh, proceeds

Jacob Shapiro:

from the Trump coin sales that I did.

Jacob Shapiro:

Let's go, let's go to the moon.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's the kind of moon, moon project I want.

Jacob Shapiro:

You know,

Marko Papic:

look, we don't, we don't know, but you know,

Marko Papic:

like we can be open-minded.

Marko Papic:

That man changed his mind, you know, maybe, yes.

Marko Papic:

You know, maybe, maybe people around Trump finally read some cogent research

Marko Papic:

that wasn't just parroting the DC like lobbyists and actually convinced Trump

Marko Papic:

of an alternative way to fight this.

Marko Papic:

By the way, if you want to know.

Marko Papic:

How this actually turned out in the 19th century read history about the Opium wars.

Marko Papic:

That's exactly what I'm saying.

Marko Papic:

The United Kingdom did not stop trade with China.

Marko Papic:

It sold them heroin.

Marko Papic:

So when I talk about getting China addicted to American AI infrastructure,

Marko Papic:

the British were like, no, no, no, no.

Marko Papic:

We'll just make them addicted to heroin.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

And now,

Jacob Shapiro:

and now China will make us addicted to Fentanyl.

Jacob Shapiro:

Right.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like that's the, the Opium War has come around, you know?

Marko Papic:

That's right.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

So your, your turn for, uh, the fifth beer.

Jacob Shapiro:

Alright.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, we should talk about Thailand, Thailand, and Cambodia, but there's

Jacob Shapiro:

nothing really to talk about.

Jacob Shapiro:

They had a border spat.

Jacob Shapiro:

There's already a cease fire.

Jacob Shapiro:

Malaysia sort of helped weigh in.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, and I there there's a broader point there about how in multipole

Jacob Shapiro:

in a multipolar world, we're gonna have these brush fires,

Jacob Shapiro:

but they're gonna be contained.

Jacob Shapiro:

So I'll say that really fast.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I'll also just say that there was a new poll out about

Jacob Shapiro:

Trump's approval ratings.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, it's down.

Jacob Shapiro:

Oh yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

He's down from the beginning of July from to a new low in his administration,

Jacob Shapiro:

uh, from 41% to drum roll, 40%, which is also within the margin of error.

Jacob Shapiro:

So Trump continues to be the best analyst about his own charisma out there.

Jacob Shapiro:

He could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and no one would give a shit.

Jacob Shapiro:

We've had him.

Jacob Shapiro:

How long has it been of Jeffrey Epstein and if we got one percentage point that

Jacob Shapiro:

is still within the margin of error on a poll for how people are approving of

Jacob Shapiro:

Donald Trump, do they approve of him?

Jacob Shapiro:

No.

Jacob Shapiro:

His approval ratings are 40%, but they're down from 41%.

Jacob Shapiro:

And as long as the economy is fine, he's probably gonna

Jacob Shapiro:

be sitting there doing fine.

Jacob Shapiro:

And maybe he has powers of charisma that will allow him to boot, uh, to

Jacob Shapiro:

weather, uh, a turbulent economy as well.

Jacob Shapiro:

But those are, I, I just stole two, two.

Jacob Shapiro:

I had, I was a little mini beer flag that I, I snuck in.

Jacob Shapiro:

See what I mean?

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh,

Marko Papic:

what you did there, what you did there is you, uh, I think

Marko Papic:

that was a shotgun beer with shotgun.

Marko Papic:

Oh, yeah.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

A shotgun.

Jacob Shapiro:

There you go.

Marko Papic:

Just like, you know, uh, okay, cool.

Marko Papic:

Uh, what do I have to say about that?

Marko Papic:

Thailand, Cambodia.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

That's it.

Marko Papic:

In a multipolar world.

Marko Papic:

Get ready for this kind of stuff.

Marko Papic:

And you know what I called it?

Marko Papic:

Uh, I wanted to write a really long analysis on this, and then I realized

Marko Papic:

I would write, no, wouldn't read

Jacob Shapiro:

it.

Jacob Shapiro:

I had the same fee.

Jacob Shapiro:

I was, it was gonna be, I was supposed to write on substack about Thailand

Jacob Shapiro:

and Cambodia, and then the US EU deal came out and I was like, all right,

Jacob Shapiro:

I've got an hour and a half here.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yes.

Jacob Shapiro:

What am I gonna do?

Jacob Shapiro:

No, I was really looking forward to understanding it, but nobody would care.

Jacob Shapiro:

So,

Marko Papic:

listen, listen, the way I, I wanted to write about rev schism.

Jacob Shapiro:

I was, I was.

Jacob Shapiro:

That's good.

Marko Papic:

Rev Evangelism is back.

Marko Papic:

The problem is that like, you know, if there's a civil war in the Congo, if

Marko Papic:

Serbia takes over Republic Seka in Bosnia,

Jacob Shapiro:

if Azerbaijan takes back in the Gord Kab,

Marko Papic:

if a tree falls in a forest and nobody hears it, did it fall?

Marko Papic:

And, and like, I don't wanna only

Jacob Shapiro:

if only if Israel does it.

Jacob Shapiro:

If Israel does it, it fell.

Jacob Shapiro:

But everything else,

Marko Papic:

well, it depends.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

Well, I'm gonna let you do that one.

Marko Papic:

Um, look, what I'm, what I'm getting at here is, uh, I think that we should expect

Marko Papic:

a lot more of this, you know, because ba basically what's happening is the rules

Marko Papic:

and norms of behavior are breaking down.

Marko Papic:

Uh, to Trump's credit, though, he did threaten both

Marko Papic:

countries with like a trade war

Jacob Shapiro:

who, with tariffs.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm sure that really resolved it.

Jacob Shapiro:

He is just trying to, he is just trying to boost his Nobel Peace Prize application.

Jacob Shapiro:

No,

Marko Papic:

no.

Marko Papic:

I, I totally agree with you, Jacob, but I, I think at least,

Marko Papic:

like he didn't just ignore it.

Jacob Shapiro:

I thought it was really interesting that he didn't ignore it.

Jacob Shapiro:

If he doesn't care about these things and he is not gonna sit in judgment, why is he

Jacob Shapiro:

out there threatening them with tariffs?

Jacob Shapiro:

Maybe because he wants a Nobel Peace Prize.

Jacob Shapiro:

I think,

Marko Papic:

well, maybe, no.

Marko Papic:

Maybe the CCAs razor is he cares about human lives.

Marko Papic:

God, Jacob, why does everything have to be so cynical?

Marko Papic:

No, but listen, listen, I don't really care.

Marko Papic:

I, my point is just that it doesn't matter what America did.

Marko Papic:

The fact is this happened, you know, it's gonna keep happening in all sorts

Marko Papic:

of, so what you and I could maybe do as an idea, here's an idea that

Marko Papic:

comes out of this shotgun, uh, beer.

Marko Papic:

Maybe what we should do is a whole episode dedicated to

Marko Papic:

forgotten territorial disputes.

Marko Papic:

I tism, you know, like German and Poland over Esia.

Marko Papic:

Like, ooh, you know, like that would be a nice continental European just like fight.

Marko Papic:

And it doesn't have to be about wars breaking out.

Marko Papic:

Just why don't, why don't you and I spend like a month preparing a top 10

Marko Papic:

list of I dentist, ous, territorial disputes that come back to the surface?

Marko Papic:

Right?

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

I love this idea.

Jacob Shapiro:

Sounds great.

Marko Papic:

Cool.

Marko Papic:

Like, maybe we finally have that war in Latin America.

Marko Papic:

Like, what was it, the Triple Alliance?

Marko Papic:

Like

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, that was a big one.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, that was the biggest one.

Marko Papic:

You not the only one.

Marko Papic:

Since then, I, I believe they've created a new rule in, uh, south America

Marko Papic:

where they just settle everything through, uh, football matches.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

Uh, my last one, my last beer is, uh, well actually I am, uh, here still in the

Marko Papic:

British, uh, beautiful British Columbia.

Marko Papic:

So I was setting up this last, uh, part of our six pack and, uh, so I

Marko Papic:

went to dinner with, uh, this, uh, fantasy, uh, basketball league group

Marko Papic:

of guys that I've been honored to join.

Marko Papic:

It's a, it's a, actually a league that's been going on

Marko Papic:

for like 35 years, by the way.

Marko Papic:

It's an incredible story.

Marko Papic:

These guys have been together forever, uh, out here in Vancouver.

Marko Papic:

Uh, basically the commissioner, when he was a kid, his father had

Marko Papic:

to, uh, drive to point Roberts.

Marko Papic:

By the way, if you don't know what point Roberts is, it's a piece of the

Marko Papic:

United States of America that's like sticking off the coast of Vancouver.

Marko Papic:

It's completely isolated from the us.

Marko Papic:

It's like a little tiny territory of America that was

Marko Papic:

cut by the ignite parallel.

Marko Papic:

And so the dad would've to go to the, to this tiny little enclave

Marko Papic:

of America, uh, or Exclave.

Marko Papic:

I'm not, uh, it's an exclave to by USA today.

Marko Papic:

So they could by hand, Jacob by hand.

Marko Papic:

Cole told the statistics because this is pre internet, pre everything.

Marko Papic:

Like Microsoft Excel was like, you don't on a floppy desk.

Marko Papic:

I mean it was just insanity.

Marko Papic:

Anyways, I have the honor and privilege to be part of this, uh, fantasy league, and

Marko Papic:

I thought to ourselves, Jacob, we haven't really talked about basketball in a while.

Marko Papic:

Last night I was with these guys.

Marko Papic:

I keep getting my ass kicked.

Marko Papic:

I need some help.

Marko Papic:

And so what I was thinking is why don't we just spend the last five

Marko Papic:

minutes of our podcast, which we used to do often, and suddenly we've

Marko Papic:

stopped talking about basketball.

Marko Papic:

And I was like, let's start thinking who I should draft.

Marko Papic:

'cause these guys are absolute sharks.

Marko Papic:

I mean, they've been doing this back when they used pencil and paper and

Marko Papic:

erasers, man, like, I'm overmatched.

Marko Papic:

I need help.

Marko Papic:

I need some undervalued assets that are going to go for very little in

Marko Papic:

the auction, in the next fantasy draft that I should pick up.

Marko Papic:

So who are, who are the break?

Marko Papic:

And by the way, we don't have to have an answer right now.

Marko Papic:

I'm just like, this is a call for help.

Marko Papic:

If you're listening to this podcast, if you're a fan, you should

Marko Papic:

want one of the cousins to win this incredibly, incredibly, uh,

Marko Papic:

prestigious basketball fantasy league.

Marko Papic:

The JBL, that's what it's called, Johnny's Basketball League.

Marko Papic:

Uh, so help me help Marco win the league, who are the undervalued assets in 2020?

Marko Papic:

So either veterans who are gonna outperform expectations, maybe

Marko Papic:

Trey Young has a great season.

Marko Papic:

I know that's probably gonna give you brain aneurysm, Jacob.

Marko Papic:

'cause you are a, you're an Atlanta Hawks fan who's like, quit because, uh, because

Marko Papic:

he's such a terrible, terrible player.

Marko Papic:

Uh, but also like, uh, or someone who's gonna have a breakout season.

Marko Papic:

You know, those are my two categories.

Marko Papic:

All veterans who people have forgotten, but they have a, like a really

Marko Papic:

sneaky good season or young players who finally flower into an allstar.

Jacob Shapiro:

Well, uh, before I answer that question, I just want you

Jacob Shapiro:

to know breaking, breaking news here.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, on the podcast itself, Gilbert Arenas has been arrested for operating an illegal

Jacob Shapiro:

gambling business at his Encino home.

Jacob Shapiro:

And also Kamala Harris says she will not run for governor of California.

Jacob Shapiro:

I'm shocked, Kamala, that you came to the conclusion

Marko Papic:

she was gonna like absolutely win that one, you

Marko Papic:

know, but, but I, uh, yeah.

Marko Papic:

I mean, I think, you know what?

Marko Papic:

Gilbert Arenas and Harris.

Marko Papic:

Maybe good comps to one another.

Marko Papic:

By the way, Al also Gilbert dos, uh, the reason I know that story,

Marko Papic:

it's not breaking is because my JBL feed has informed me,

Marko Papic:

like, has already done it, John.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

This is the

Jacob Shapiro:

future.

Jacob Shapiro:

This is the future.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, we're no longer gonna go to the internet for news.

Jacob Shapiro:

We're gonna have personal intelligence networks that are gonna ping us that

Jacob Shapiro:

something's up because you don't know whether it's AI slop or not.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, I guess my first the I'll, you know, by the way, it's not because I, I hate

Jacob Shapiro:

Trey Young, that I abandoned the Hawks.

Jacob Shapiro:

It's because the Atlanta Hawks traded the pick that was going to be Luca donates

Jacob Shapiro:

so that they could draft Trey Young, and then Luca went to the Mavericks.

Jacob Shapiro:

Uh, so it was, it was that move because I, you know, the Hawks were the team

Jacob Shapiro:

that they drafted Marvin Williams instead of Chris Paul, they drafted

Jacob Shapiro:

Sheldon Williams and Stella, Brandon Roy.

Jacob Shapiro:

Then they, I just couldn't, I couldn't stomach it anymore.

Jacob Shapiro:

And so I embraced the fucking pelicans, which really great timing on that.

Jacob Shapiro:

Oh, cool.

Jacob Shapiro:

Thanks Troy.

Jacob Shapiro:

Joe Dumars.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, I mean, I was just

Marko Papic:

gonna say, but Joe Dumars is not here.

Jacob Shapiro:

I know.

Jacob Shapiro:

So now I'm really now like the universe is like, well part of me is like, you know,

Jacob Shapiro:

I lived in Austin for almost 10 years.

Jacob Shapiro:

I have a couple Spurs jerseys, maybe I should just, but I

Jacob Shapiro:

can't embrace the Spurs now.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause that's front running.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, oh, when Victor is on your team, I'm gonna embrace the Spurs.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like really?

Jacob Shapiro:

But anyway, all of this is to say, my deep experience now with the Pelican says that,

Jacob Shapiro:

and maybe this is not dark horse enough for you, but uh, Trey Murphy third should

Jacob Shapiro:

be on your list, especially the eyes gone.

Jacob Shapiro:

Zion's probably gonna suck as long as he can stay healthy.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, he's gonna put up a lot of threes.

Jacob Shapiro:

He's got a lot of opportunities down here, I think.

Marko Papic:

Okay, that's good.

Marko Papic:

Uh, mine is Benedict Matran.

Jacob Shapiro:

Mm-hmm.

Jacob Shapiro:

A good one.

Marko Papic:

You know, I just think that he's gonna have a breakout, uh, season,

Marko Papic:

uh, obviously with Halliburton injured.

Marko Papic:

So I think that's gonna be a, a really good one also.

Marko Papic:

Uh, look, you know, like an, uh, another way to look at that is Andrew Mhar.

Marko Papic:

I think, uh, you know, one of those two probably gonna

Marko Papic:

have to carry the look right.

Jacob Shapiro:

I also, um, I really like, um, Grady Dick in Toronto.

Jacob Shapiro:

I mean, Toronto's kind of a weird team, but I, I think

Jacob Shapiro:

he's got a lot of potential.

Jacob Shapiro:

They're in, they're in full on rebuild mode.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like that might be a good one.

Marko Papic:

The problem with Grady, Dick, I'll tell you is,

Marko Papic:

uh, so this, this fantasy league is, uh, exclusively Canadian.

Marko Papic:

And so every single Toronto rep player, yeah, it's just, there's a homer tax,

Marko Papic:

so he's already like, not just gone, but he's like gonna go for like 50 bucks.

Marko Papic:

You know, he's gonna go the same price as like, I don't know, an all star.

Marko Papic:

So grad Dick is already fully priced in this league.

Marko Papic:

So you gotta, you gotta be careful with home bias.

Marko Papic:

Um,

Jacob Shapiro:

you know, another, another one, um, who, who was the

Jacob Shapiro:

guy that Milwaukee just signed?

Jacob Shapiro:

Um, the, the guard, uh, God, what was his name?

Jacob Shapiro:

Cole Anthony, uh, on for Milwaukee.

Marko Papic:

Yeah, that's a really good one.

Marko Papic:

He was in, uh, Orlando, like, right, he was in

Jacob Shapiro:

Orlando and like, Milwaukee's just desperate.

Jacob Shapiro:

So they just need anybody to come in and handle the ball.

Jacob Shapiro:

'cause they can't just be Giannis and Miles Turner and, like, call Anthony

Jacob Shapiro:

can score and, and he can do some stuff so that he, he's also just gonna get

Jacob Shapiro:

some stats by virtue of where he is.

Jacob Shapiro:

So,

Marko Papic:

yeah.

Marko Papic:

Another one, obviously I'm just, uh, picking off, you know, the problem

Marko Papic:

with these guys are too smart, so it's not gonna really work.

Marko Papic:

You're looking at like teams where like a star is gone.

Marko Papic:

Like, that's just not gonna work against these guys.

Marko Papic:

They're, they just are like a computer.

Marko Papic:

They're like ai, you know, everything is like, but Peyton Pritchard, you know,

Marko Papic:

if you're looking for a breakout season, I mean, he's already gonna be gone.

Marko Papic:

I think he's a keeper, actually.

Marko Papic:

Uh, so he's not gonna be available.

Marko Papic:

But I, I like Benton Pritchard, uh, Jayden Ivy in, uh, Detroit.

Marko Papic:

Also another one.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Uh, that's a good one.

Marko Papic:

Just because of, uh, you know, speaking of gambling Beasley obviously.

Marko Papic:

Um, yeah.

Marko Papic:

But, uh, I don't know.

Marko Papic:

Uh, I'm not sure.

Marko Papic:

I think Miles Turner.

Jacob Shapiro:

Yeah, I mean, I, I have my doubts about what's gonna happen there.

Jacob Shapiro:

Um,

Marko Papic:

yeah.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

Not, not, not a fan.

Marko Papic:

Don't think he's gonna like, put up numbers next.

Marko Papic:

No,

Jacob Shapiro:

he's, he's fine.

Jacob Shapiro:

You know who I've always rooted for, who's probably never gonna

Jacob Shapiro:

like, get to like Kevin Herder.

Jacob Shapiro:

I, I, I'm always rooting for Kevin Herder and, you know, he's in Chicago.

Jacob Shapiro:

Like, maybe he'll, I don't even know if Chicago resigned him.

Jacob Shapiro:

I know that he was at, uh, the Red Mamba.

Jacob Shapiro:

Red Velvet.

Jacob Shapiro:

This is another way in which I'm like, Silla Silla loves Kevin Herder.

Jacob Shapiro:

And I have also loved Kevin Herder since the Hawks drafted him.

Jacob Shapiro:

He's, he's, uh, he, he could really do some things if somebody

Jacob Shapiro:

would let him do it, you know?

Marko Papic:

Alright, well, uh, I just wanted to put that bug in the ear.

Marko Papic:

It's that time of the year I'm starting to get a little antsy

Marko Papic:

that, uh, basketball's been gone.

Marko Papic:

I mean, like, reread the Skinny Luca Men's Health, uh, article like six times.

Marko Papic:

Wow.

Marko Papic:

You are desperate.

Marko Papic:

Maybe three times.

Marko Papic:

Yeah.

Marko Papic:

I am desperate.

Marko Papic:

Okay.

Marko Papic:

Um, a couple of things on that.

Marko Papic:

One thing that I will definitely, so we haven't talked about basketball

Marko Papic:

for a long time, but next time we do talk about basketball, I'm going

Marko Papic:

to be all about the Euro basket.

Marko Papic:

Hmm.

Marko Papic:

I think it's gonna be one of the most competitive Euro baskets ever.

Marko Papic:

So it's happening at the end of August.

Marko Papic:

Get ready for that.

Marko Papic:

You've got Yoki playing for Serbia.

Marko Papic:

I, he's not confirmed, but it looks like he will, obviously Don is

Marko Papic:

playing for Slovenia 'cause he's a psychopath and just wants to play

Marko Papic:

every time, which I love so much.

Marko Papic:

And I think it's gonna be an epic, epic battle.

Marko Papic:

Like every team is stacked.

Marko Papic:

Uh, German, Germany is obviously coming off of like a ton of

Marko Papic:

really great performances.

Marko Papic:

I don't think they're gonna have it again, but, you know, uh, what was it?

Marko Papic:

Uh, Feba, uh, there was that, uh, Feba, uh, Patty Mills.

Marko Papic:

You know, Feba Patty Mills.

Marko Papic:

There's a feba like Dennis Schroeder.

Marko Papic:

Like Dennis Schroeder got this huge contract and I'm like, were

Marko Papic:

they just going off of his like, international experience, you know?

Marko Papic:

So, uh, anyways, I think that it's gonna be a great, uh, great

Marko Papic:

way to get us into the NB season.

Marko Papic:

I can't wait.

Marko Papic:

And, uh, next time you hear from me on basketball, it's gonna be about what

Marko Papic:

happened at the Euro basket tournament.

Marko Papic:

Until then, though, everyone goes listening to this.

Marko Papic:

If you're a basketball fan, uh, please tweet at me.

Marko Papic:

Your favorite two, three undervalued assets.

Marko Papic:

I need help.

Marko Papic:

I'm never going to win this league unless we crowdsource.

Marko Papic:

Some, some like competition, you know?

Marko Papic:

And by the way, I have went Bama as a keeper, guys on a rookies

Marko Papic:

salary deal for two more years.

Marko Papic:

If I don't win next two years, it's like over like, oh no, they're

Marko Papic:

gonna, they're gonna like, make fun of me for the rest of eternity.

Marko Papic:

So,

Jacob Shapiro:

yeah.

Jacob Shapiro:

So really what we need also listeners is somebody who makes sure that

Jacob Shapiro:

Victor doesn't have a return of his blood clots because what, what Marco

Jacob Shapiro:

really needs is sort of Victor to become the Thanos of the league that

Jacob Shapiro:

it looks like he's about to become.

Marko Papic:

Well I think that, uh, thankfully, uh, you know, there

Marko Papic:

are, uh, anticoagulants that he can take, so hopefully he is on them

Marko Papic:

for the rest of his life, uh, so that he does not have another blood

Marko Papic:

clot, you know, fingers crossed.

Jacob Shapiro:

Wonder what the tariff rate on those is on that note.

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